How Strong Are the Green Bay Packers' Title Odds for 2012-13?

Free agency has pretty much wrapped-up and there is a lull in the NFL news (as much as there really can be with Lions being arrested, Saints being suspended and mock drafts being picked apart) until the NFL Draft.

During this news lull, sportsbooks have taken the time to update their Super Bowl odds.

Guess who is favored to win it all in 2012?

Yup, the Green bay Packers are a five to one favorite to win the big one.

Early though it is, is this realistic?

Let's take a quick look at the Packers and how good of a lock this really is.

Last season saw the Green Bay Packers secondary repeatedly blown up throughout the season.

While they did tighten up a bit in the second half of the season, they still gave up more than 300 yards passing three times, falling one yard short of a fourth against Kansas City.

Several of those involved multiple passing touchdowns.

It's not just the secondary of course.

As we have discussed before, the defense needs to generate more pressure. The Packers generated a paltry 29 sacks in 2011 (good for 27th in the League).

In both categories I, like Vegas, expect the Packers' defense to bounce back. I'll feel better about it if they can grab someone to go across from Clay Matthews and some new blood in the secondary (especially if Nick Collins is forced to retire).

We know the offense won't miss a beat as long as Aaron Rodgers is healthy.

To that end, improved line play would be nice, but the line has come a long way the last few years, so I feel confident it will continue its progress.

The biggest issue is whether new center Jeff Saturday can hold up to another year—this time in a brand new offensive scheme.

If he can grasp the intricacies of the Packers' scheme and his body holds up, it will ease the loss of Scott Wells.

I believe the line, as a whole, will continue to improve, but there will be some back-sliding early on while Saturday adjusts.

A healthy Jermichael Finley and a wide receiver corps including Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and James Jones will be even more potent this coming year.

The only other question is: what will the run game look like?

The team intends to get more creative with its running, though I expect they will not run a whole lot more.

If James Starks and Alex Green stay healthy and Brandon Saine produces like the team hopes, the ground attack could be very effective.

Despite all this, I don't know that I would spend the cash on this bet. I think the Packers have a very good chance of returning to the Big Game, but until I've seen the additions via the Draft and hear how the defense is doing in OTAs, I hesitate to call them this much of a lock.

They're good. I just think that the questions make the money a bit shaky.