Mel Kiper 2012 Mock Draft: Analyzing Kiper's Biggest 1st Round Hits and Misses

ESPN's Mel Kiper published his latest mock draft Wednesday, and as is the case with all mock drafts, the well-coiffed one hit some picks squarely on the proverbial head, while others leave you scratching yours.

Let's take a look at some of Kiper's first-round picks, as well as the rationalization behind my belief that while some hit the target dead-center, others missed the dartboard entirely.

1.04: Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

Kiper's Take 

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At his pro day, Richardson confirmed that his knee is just fine, and while we know a running back is always a risk this high, here is a player gifted enough, and with such a remarkable physical profile and skill-set that you're comfortable making him an exception to the trend. The Browns need an impact player at running back, and they can take the best one in the draft here, then look for a quarterback to push later. They really only take a QB here if they feel he can beat out the one they have in Week 1. Richardson is going to make a difference.

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Why the Pick is a Hit 

The Browns need offensive playmakers as badly as any team in the National Football League, and while a running back hasn't been taken in the Top 5 since 2008, Richardson is set to buck that trend after piling up over 2,000 total yards as a junior in Tuscaloosa.

1.13: Arizona Cardinals: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Kiper's Take

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Another pick I'll stick with, Floyd is a great complement to Larry Fitzgerald and will help Arizona maximize the options for Kevin Kolb. The offensive line could use help, but Floyd has proven that he'd be a good value here. Think of Atlanta getting Julio Jones to take some pressure off Roddy White last year. Floyd could fill a similar role.

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Why the Pick is a Miss 

The 6'3" Floyd is a fine player coming off a 100-catch season for the Fighting Irish, but Andre Roberts and Early Doucet are serviceable complements to Fitzgerald, and the Cardinals have much more pressing needs at outside linebacker and along the offensive front.

1.14: Dallas Cowboys: Mark Barron, SS, Alabama

Kiper's Take

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Dallas was aggressive in getting a solid corner in free agency with the addition of Brandon Carr, but they still need help at safety to shore up the pass defense. I don't think another corner is out of the question at this spot, but Barron is the best safety in the draft, and the Cowboys can't go wrong if he's available. I can also see Dallas going offensive line here, as that unit could use some help, but Barron makes sense.

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Why the Pick is a Hit

The 6'1", 213 lb. All-American is the top safety in this year's class, and the back end of the Dallas defense is a mess. I still think that 14th overall is early to take Barron, but after Cowboys coach Jason Garrett attended Alabama's recent pro day, the Barron-to-Big D train is picking up steam.

1.18: San Diego Chargers: Chandler Jones, OLB, Syracuse

Kiper's Take

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Listed as a defensive end at Syracuse, Jones has the talent, upside and a great frame to make the move to OLB in a pass-rushing role. He's still a little raw, but the instincts are there and offensive linemen have a really tough time getting their hands on him. Could blossom into a star for the Chargers.

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Why this Pick is a Miss

This isn't a knock on Jones, as the 6'5", 266 lb. senior played well for the Orange, but with only 10.5 sacks over the past three seasons, it would be a significant reach for the Chargers to take Jones over players such as Whitney Mercilus of Illinois, who had 16 sacks last season alone.

1.28: Green Bay Packers: Nick Perry, OLB, USC

Kiper's Take

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By the end of last season, the Packers were sacking quarterbacks at a rate that was the worst in the NFL. They simply have to find players who can create matchup problems for offenses often trying to play catch-up via the pass. Perry is another convert option, but the Packers can do a lot with their looks and find a place for a pass-rusher with his upside.

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Why this Pick is a Hit

Many of the Packers' defensive deficiencies last year can be traced back to a pass rush that was 27th in the NFL in sacks, and the versatile and athletic Perry would be an excellent bookend for Clay Matthews after leading the Pac-12 in sacks as a junior.

1.31: New England Patriots: Derek Wolfe, DL, Cincinnati

Kiper's Take

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Will fit best as a 3-4 DE, where he can use his size (6-5, 295) to become a disruptive pass-rusher. Not considered explosive in terms of foot speed, he plays with great leverage and can disrupt pockets by driving linemen back, demanding extra help. Another good fit for the Patriots as they add pieces up front.

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Why the Pick is a Miss

Wolfe was very productive for the Bearcats in 2011, tallying 70 tackles and 9.5 sacks, but with the Patriots featuring more and more 4-3 defensive looks, the team would be better served to go with Penn State's Devon Still, as the reigning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year is more versatile and quicker off the snap.