Vancouver Canucks: 5 Reasons They Do Not Look Poised for a Stanley Cup Run

Last week, I posted this piece, outlining why the Vancouver Canucks will finally lift the Cup this June. 

Since Duncan Keith laid his elbow into Daniel Sedin's noggin two weeks ago, the Canucks have gone 7-0, making them the hottest team in the league and making my predictive powers look pretty darn good.

But I'm a lifelong Canuck fan. After 41 years of futility and zero Stanley Cups, the evidence shows that something always gets in the way. It just feels wrong to say "This is our year! We're going all the way!"

In the interest of karmic balance, and as an offering to the hockey gods, here's the flip-side. Five obstacles that could very well rear their ugly heads. We hope they don't, but history shows they probably will.

1. The Offense Is Anemic

The Vancouver Canucks led virtually every regular season statistical category in 2010-11, including 258 goals scored. With two games to go this year, they're tied for 5th overall, with 244 goals.

Mikael Samuelsson, Christian Ehrhoff, and Cody Hodgson are gone. More importantly, the Canucks haven't gotten the same production as last season out of Ryan Kesler and the Sedin twins. A career year from Jannik Hansen can only make up for so much.

Scoring became increasingly difficult as the playoffs wore on last season. This year, they're starting off with diminished overall firepower, and while management is cautiously optimistic, there's still no timetable for the return of leading scorer Daniel Sedin from his concussion.

Unlikely heroes like Max Lapierre, Andrew Alberts, Andrew Ebbett, and Marc-Andre Gragnani have been contributing in recent games, while Chris Higgins has been on a hot streak.

If the Canucks hope to have any postseason success, they are going to have to continue scoring by committee.

2. The Power Play Is Sputtering

In 2010-11, the Canucks led the league with a 24.3% success rate on the power play. With two games to go this year, they're in fourth place at 20.0%.

What might be more worrisome is that this year, they've scored just 55 goals on 275 chances, while last year, they scored 72 on 296. 

It's not just a lower conversion rate—the Canucks have received almost 10% fewer power-play opportunities this year. In recent weeks especially, the Canucks have looked anything but powerful with the man advantage.

Penalty calls can be few and far between in the postseason. The Canucks are going to have to find a way to capitalize on the chances they get if they want to make another deep playoff run.

3. The Goaltending Situation Is Complicated

Roberto Luongo has an Olympic Gold Medal and some of the most consistent regular-season numbers in the NHL since joining the Canucks back in 2006.

He also has a reputation for some of the worst on-ice meltdowns in playoff history, stretching back over several years.

Is it a coincidence that Luongo now has a faithful sidekick named Cory Schneider?

Luongo and Schneider shared the regular-season load in 2010-11, but the idea was simply to get Luongo more rest, not to prep Schneider for playoff action.

After performing solidly during his first full NHL season, Schneider was summoned to right the ship as Chicago started to push back in the first-round series last year.

He replaced a shaky Luongo during games four and five, then started game six before getting pulled himself after suffering from leg cramps. Schneider also relieved Luongo for two games in the finals against Boston.

Schneider played 25 games to Luongo's 60 as the Canucks won the 2010-11 William Jennings trophy for the best combined goals-against, surrendering 185 goals in 82 games.

This year, the workload has been even more balanced, with Schneider appearing in 32 games to Luongo's 54.

The pair has surrendered 188 goals with two games left, good for 4th place in the league. But Luongo's numbers have gotten worse while Schneider's have gotten better.

Last year, Luongo had a goals-against-average of 2.11 and a save percentage of .928. This year, his goals-against has risen to 2.46 and his save percentage is .919.

Last year, Schneider's GAA was 2.23 and his save percentage was .929. This year, with increased ice-time, he's lowered his goals-against to 1.93 and improved his save percentage to .938. 

He's better relative to last year, and he's better relative to Luongo. Schneider is the one in second place in the NHL in save-percentage and tied for third for goals-against average, putting up Vezina-calibre numbers on an entry-level contract of $900,000.

It's assumed that we'll see big Loo between the pipes when the playoffs start next week. Management has shown great faith in their $64 million man, perhaps sometimes to a fault.

But even a 'meaningless' late-season game against the Anaheim Ducks can start the wave-pool churning in Canuck Nation.

Nothing is certain when Luongo surrenders four goals on 15 shots, then Schneider turns away all nine shots he sees and secures the Canucks' comeback shootout win to keep their Presidents' Trophy dream alive.

At this point, Schneider is the more beloved of the two goalies here in Vancouver. He was cheered enthusiastically when he took over for Luongo on Tuesday.

The Canucks' coaching staff are going to face a tricky challenge in deploying their two netminders most effectively though the post-season.

4. Not Enough Grit

The most consistent knock on the Vancouver Canucks during last year's Stanley Cup Final was that they didn't have enough toughness to avoid getting steamrolled by the Boston Bruins.

The Canucks thought they had a solid gameplan, turning the other cheek and making the opposition pay on the power play. 

But those man-advantage opportunities dried up as the playoffs progressed, and the Canucks were left empty-handed but for the belief that they had played the "right way," as coach Vigneault is so fond of saying.

This year, numerous teams tried to emulate the Bruins' strategy when they faced the Canucks, with varying results.

At times, the Canucks got pushed around. Sometimes, they were able to use the power play to their advantage. Sometimes, they even fought back.

With two games to go in the season, they're the fourth most-penalized team in the league. They're also the only one not to have been suspended or fined under Brendan Shanahan's new iron fist of justice.

It's not that the Canucks need to be playing recklessly and injuring their opponents to be successful. But many are still wondering, "Are the Canucks too soft for postseason success?"

Team toughness has been more apparent in these last few weeks, but no one's going to mistake these Canucks for the Broad Street Bullies.

An undisclosed upper-body injury to big Zack Kassian during Tuesday's Anaheim game muddies the waters a little more. Is this why concussion-prone David Booth feels like he needs to fight?

5. The Nashville Predators—and Seven Other Teams in the West

Don't look now, Western Conference, but the mild-mannered Nashville Predators are ready to stand up and be counted.

For years, the franchise was content to not surrender too many goals, not spend too much money, and to develop its core roster from within.

Things started to change last year when Mike Fisher was acquired from Ottawa. Nashville has followed up that bold move by grabbing a Hal Gill here, a couple of Kostitsyns there, and a Paul Gaustad everywhere. Not to mention Alexander Radulov, express-delivery from the KHL.

The sum total is that Nashville is now one of the most complete teams in the Western Conference.

Considering the Canucks only squeaked out of their second-round series against the Preds last year, they'll be a formidable opponent for any and every playoff team they face.

If Detroit does manage to knock off Nashville in the first round, that'll be one less thing for the Canucks to worry about—but only one. The Western Conference has been ultra-competitive all year long and there are no easy match-ups for anyone.

If the Canucks hope to play for the Cup this year, they'll need to overcome their own internal obstacles. They'll need to stay healthy. And they'll have to hope for a rougher road for their opponents than the one they travel.

As the Canucks learned last year, the two-month, four-round playoff battle is a war of attrition, and strange things are guaranteed to happen along the way.

The Canucks look well-positioned with a week to go, but every year there are mighty oaks that fall. With sixteen teams ready to lay everything on the line, any Canuck fan can find ample reason to prepare for the worst—but maybe still hope for the best.