Peyton Manning to Broncos: A Formula for Success

Future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning agreed to terms with the Denver Broncos on Monday. There is much talk about how he immediately will impact the team.

He himself has said that his impact needs to be immediate. He was not signed to make the team successful in two years or even in one year. He knows that he was signed to win the division in this upcoming season.

Peyton knows he must win in Denver now, or risk being booed off the field as quarterback Kyle Orton was last year.

In thinking about how Manning will immediately impact the Broncos, I have created a statistical formula based on the baseball statistic Wins Above Replacement (WAR). I call it Predicted Wins. My goal is to determine how many wins Manning will add with his presence alone.

First, I need to figure out Manning’s predicted win percentage during his last season with Indianapolis (2010). Here is the formula: win pct.=TD^2.67/(TD^2.67)+(Int^2.67)+(Fum^2.67).

Here is the formula with the numbers plugged in: win pct.=33^2.67/(33^2.67)+(17^2.67)+(3^2.67).

Based on this formula, I found that Manning’s predicted win percentage in 2010 was .853. That is approximately 14 wins. Therefore, if every player on the 2010 Colts had as good a year as Manning, the team would have won 14 games (instead of 10).

Now, in order to predict how many wins Manning will add to the Broncos as their quarterback, we have to look at the team's 2011 win percentage: 2011 Denver Broncos, eight wins, .500 win percentage.

The formula for predicted win percentage with Manning is: (Manning’s win pct.+Denver’s win pct.)/2=predicted win percentage.

Let’s plug the numbers in: (.853+.500)/2=.676

That formula tells me that Manning, by himself, can add approximately three wins to the Broncos, giving them a predicted record of 11-5.

In conclusion, I don’t really think that there was a perfect fit for Manning. Any team that he signed with would have had to completely reorganize its offense to fit Manning’s specifications. There already have been talks of Manning bringing some of his old Indianapolis buddies with him to Denver.

Therefore, these predictions are not foolproof. This formula is merely my way of trying to figure out how much Manning will be missed by Colts fans next year. With 11 wins, Denver is a strong favorite to repeat as champions of the weak AFC West. What will happen in the playoffs is another story.