Faith in Numbers: How Sabermetrics Can Make You a Better Fan

Some people tell me that I take sabermetrics, the study of statistics in baseball, a little too far.  I disagree.  Learning sabermetrics has given me a richer picture of the game, a more nuanced understanding of our national pastime. 

If anything, in fact, sabermetrics has made me a better fan.

The problem, unfortunately, is that there's no evidence to support such a claim.

In the book Baseball Between the Numbers, the team at Baseball Prospectus found no statistical difference—in terms of strikeouts, walks, ERA, and home runs surrendered—between pitchers who had used steroids and those who had passed their drug tests. The performance boost that pitchers do get from steroids involves quicker recovery times between games and more endurance during them—effects that are meaningless in the context of Aaron's lack of at bats against juiced hurlers.

This also makes empirical sense. Pitchers weren't routinely breaking 100 mph during the Steroid Era, or winning thirty games or posting outrageously low ERAs. What they were doing, on the other hand, was giving up a lot of home runs. 

The point about Aaron, though well made by the author, is moot. 

Sabermetrics can give us insight about more than just steroid use.  Another hot topic on the Bleacher Report has been Daisuke Matsuzaka, and whether the Red Sox's newest import is the real deal.  Sabermetricians have found that, with proper adjustments, minor league and Japanese statistics can predict major league performance just as reliably as major league statistics from prior years.

All the telltale signs of a "good pitcher" are present in Dice-K's Japanese numbers (and in his current stats). He strikes out batters more often than he walks them. He surrenders an opponent batting average below that allowed by most major league pitchers.  His performance, though, does tend to decline after the 50-pitch mark—which may indicate that he'd be better utilized in the bullpen, or simply that he needs more experience to stay effective late in games.  

What sabermetrics says for sure is that Daisuke is more likely to become an above-average major league starter than his present ERA suggests.  He has a proven track record of getting hitters out. He also came across the Pacific at the right point in his career: He turns 27 this September, which means he's entering the peak-performance period of his pitching life. 

The bottom line: The smart money says to expect big things from Dice-K.

And how about the Yankees?  Are they as bad as their record suggests?  Probably not.  The Yankees have struggled to a 12-15 mark thus far, but they've scored 161 runs while allowing only 146.  Statistically, a team that scores more runs than it gives up should win more games than it loses. As the season goes on, expect the Yankees to regress towards the mean and become a winning ball club again. 

(That's assuming, of course, that Yankees management doesn't start to make irrational personnel decisions, something the Bombers are famous for.)

Call me crazy, but I'm the type of fan who wants to know what's true and what's false before I form my opinions.  Sabermetrics affords me a deeper knowledge and a deeper love of a profoundly wonderful game. 

Baseball is an American religion.  And what is faith without sacred texts? What is baseball without box scores?

Marty Andrade is a frequent contributor to the Bleacher Report and the host of a live weekly podcast available at blogtalkradio/andrade.