Rebel Stakes: Secret Circle Favored Going Beyond a Mile for the First Time
Bob Baffert's Secret Circle goes out as the 9-to-5 favorite to win the Grade II Rebel Stakes today at Oaklawn Park, but he is far from a certain winner.
Even after he gamely out-finished Scatman in a sensational dash to the wire on the second split race of the Southwest Stakes four weeks ago, many don't consider him a classic distance runner.
The Rebel Stakes is only 100 meters more than the Southwest Stakes. This means that we might not get a definitive answer today to Secret Circle's ability to handle longer distances.
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What we do know as a fact is that his trainer, Bob Baffert, knows what it takes to win this race. He has saddled the past two winners, Lookin at Lucky (2010) and The Factor (2011).
If there is one thing we learned from Secret Circle in his last race, it is that he was able to relax and rate-off the leader under jockey Rafael Bejarano. He also showed grittiness and resiliency as he battled Scatman to the wire for the win.
His time of 1:37.08 was unimpressive to say the least, but he did earn a 102 Beyer figure for that effort. Breaking from the post position No. 7 could make Bejarano use him a bit to avoid early trouble, but he should once again run off the lead and try to track down the leader on the home stretch.
Nonetheless, he is the favorite to win this race and should be there at the wire.
Scatman was the feisty runner-up in the Southwest and was an unexpected challenger closing at 10-to-1 odds. Taking advantage of his inside position, he went for the lead under jockey Luis Quinones and gamely finished half-a-length behind Secret Circle, earning a career-high 101 Beyer figure.
This horse is very dangerous today. He will break from the No. 2 post, so expect him to follow the same race plan once again, as he will go for the lead and try to wire them. He comes with two average workouts for this race, which should have served mainly to maintain form.
Second choice on the morning line odds is Steven Asmussen's Sabercat. He is making his first start since winning the Grade III $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot last November.
He impressed in that race as he came from last to first in a traffic-filled race and won driving away. He has six timed workouts for his return, though none were a bullet workout. He gets Corey Nakatani aboard and deserves a longer look here.
He looks to be in shape, and if there is a big battle up front, he can come form just off the pace and win it. He is my favorite to win this race.
Cyber Secret was coming off a romp in which he earned a career best 96 Beyer figure, but he disappointed in the Southwest, finishing fifth and getting beaten by 10 lengths.
He ran four-wide around the turn and was close up to the three-quarter-mile pole. From there he just flattened out and didn't fire his best race.
He has two bullet workouts since then, and I like that he gets Robbie Albarado aboard. This is another horse that should be following the leaders closely. Since he has a better post today from the inside, Albarado should have him saving ground.
Cyber Secret remains a big question mark but should bounce back well for this one as he looks to be fit and ready. The best thing I like about him are his 15-to-1 morning line odds.
One dark horse in this race—and my possible surprise pick—is Atigun.
He has not run since his big effort win in an optional claimer-NX1 race on January 15 at Oaklawn Park. He went off as the favorite on that race, which included ninth-place-finisher Cyber Secret.
It was an off race for Cyber Secret as he broke out last and just didn't fire that day. But Atigun was considered above him, and Cyber Secret is a contender here.
Atigun looks to be ready to fire an improved race today. His trainer, Ken McPeek, has brought him along well, and his last workout at five furlongs in 1:00.60 seems to have settled him for this race.
You might remember McPeek mostly from being the one to find Curling on the yearling sale, but I remember him for training 2002 surprise winner Sarava. Atigun is far from being a Belmont Stakes contender, but his running style reminds me a lot of Sarava.
At morning line odds of 12-to-1, Atigun is worth a shot.
This race will be an interesting one and should get us some answers on where these horses are right now. We'll have a better idea of who might be heading to the Grade I Arkansas Derby as the favorite and a Kentucky Derby top contender.
Rebel Stakes | Grade II
Fair Grounds, LA
Purse: $500,000
Distance: 1-1/16 Mile
Post Time: 5:48 CT
| 1 | Ring It Up | Israel Ocampo | Chris Richard | 20/1 |
| 1A | Pee H Dee | Lindey Wade | Chris Richard | 20/1 |
| 2 | Unbridled's Note | Calvin Hill | Steven M. Asmussen | 20/1 |
| 3 | Scatman | Luis S. Quinones | Michael E. Lauer | 8/1 |
| 4 | Cyber Secret | Robbie J. Albarado | Lynn S. Whiting | 15/1 |
| 5 | Optimizer | John K. Court | D. Wayne Lukas | 30/1 |
| 6 | Jake Mo | M. Clifton Berry | Allen Milligan | 20/1 |
| 7 | Sabercat | Corey S. Nakatani | Steven M. Asmussen | 5/1 |
| 8 | Secret Circle | Rafael Bejarano | Bob Baffert | 9/5 |
| 9 | Atigun | Terry J. Thompson | Kenneth G. McPeek | 12/1 |
| 10 | Reckless Jerry | Joseph S. Rocco Jr | Kenny P. Smith | 12/1 |
| 11 | Najjaar | Calvin H. Borel | Daniel C. Peitz | 6/1 |
| 12 | Adirondack King | Scot Elliot | John C. Servis | 6/1 |
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