March Madness 2012 Bracket Predictions: Expect No. 13 Seeds to Dominate Round 1

The upsets are coming, but where are they coming from?

It’s the million dollar question every year in the NCAA tournament, and this year the bracket presents a unique situation.

With a combination of weak No. 4 seeds and extremely strong No. 13s, there is a real opportunity for four upsets. Here’s why:

No. 4 Indiana (25-8) vs. No. 13 New Mexico State (26-9)

The Hoosiers are just happy to be here after a four-year drought and enter the tourney banged up with the loss of senior playmaker Verdell Jones III in the Big Ten tournament. They need to consistently knock down three-pointers to ensure Cody Zeller is freed up in the paint.

The Aggies won 10 of 11 down the stretch as their fast-paced, up-tempo style of play is finally clicking on all cylinders.

Wendell McKines has 20 double-doubles this season as the leader of a team that is among the best rebounding squads in the country. They get to the line frequently and can out-muscle the Hooisers.

Guys like ESPN’s Joe Lunardi agree.

No. 4 Michigan (24-9) vs. No. 13 Ohio (27-7)

The Bobcats are one of the best teams in the nation at defending the three-point shot. They have a ton of length on the perimeter and close out in a hurry.

This is a problem for the Wolverines, who shot over 23 three-pointers a game this season. The lack of height on Michigan is ridiculous, with only one starter taller than 6’6’’. They rank 311^st in the country in rebounding and are going to get eaten alive by the Bobcats, who led the MAC this season by averaging 12.7 offensive rebounds per game.

The Bobcats slayed the Georgetown Hoyas as a No. 14 seed two years ago and are going to shock the world once again.

No. 4 Wisconsin (24-9) vs. No. 13 Montana (25-6)

It seems as if the Badgers have the same team every year. They play stingy defense, but rank 264^th nationally in scoring (63.8). Aside from their outstanding point guard Jordan Taylor, there just isn’t a whole lot of firepower.

If the score creeps into the high 60s, the Badgers are in deep trouble.

Montana has won 20 of 21 games, although the competition hasn’t been particular strong. What is strong is their excellent man-to-man defense that limits opponents to under 62 points a game despite playing at a frantic pace on offense.

As long as point guard Will Cherry can limit Taylor, this is going to come down to the final possession when it’s a complete flip of the coin.

No. 4 Louisville (26-9) vs. No. 13 Davidson (25-7)

Davidson is disciplined offensively and capable of handling the razor-sharp defense of Louisville better than most teams.

The Cardinals let opponents dictate the pace and have an incredibly weak half-court offense. As long as Davidson controls the tempo and limits its turnovers, the Cardinals are going to be shocked in the first round for the second straight year. 

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