NCAA Bracket 2012: Odds of Each No. 1 Seed Suffering an Upset

When the bracket for the 2012 NCAA tournament was announced, it was more than a little surprising to see which teams had been picked as No. 1 seeds.

Kentucky was selected as a No. 1 seed despite the fact the Wildcats lost to Vanderbilt in the SEC championship game. The Michigan State Spartans were selected despite the fact they blew a shot at winning the Big Ten regular season title outright. The Syracuse Orange were selected despite the fact they didn't even make it to the final in the Big East tournament. And last but not least, the North Carolina Tar Heels were selected despite the fact they lost in the final of the ACC tournament.

In a nutshell, what we know about these four teams is that they are not invincible. All four of them can be beaten, and that means all four of them are ripe for an upset as we head into the tournament.

For kicks, here are the odds of each team suffering an upset in the Big Dance.

Kentucky Wildcats (South)

There is something to be said about how much Kentucky came back down to earth in the SEC tournament. The Wildcats made a habit out of destroying the competition in the conference during the regular season, but that all changed over the past week. 

Kentucky fell behind early against LSU and ultimately needed a comeback to earn a nine-point victory. Against Florida, the Wildcats only managed to win by three. And against Vanderbilt, they were thoroughly outplayed and ultimately beaten.

Talent-wise, the Wildcats are still more well off than any other team in the tournament, with the exception of maybe North Carolina. But there's a target hanging over Kentucky's head, and the Wildcats proved in the SEC tourney that this target has considerably leveled the playing field. Any team that truly wants it more than Kentucky will be able to give the Wildcats a run for their money.

I'd say the Wildcats are far more ripe for an upset than they were this time last week.

Upset Odds: 15/2

Michigan State Spartans (West)

I'll give credit where credit is due. I was down on the Spartans at the end of the regular season, but they definitely looked like the best team in the conference in the Big Ten tournament.

The Spartans have a well-deserved reputation as an efficient offensive team, and they proved in the Big Ten tourney that they can be efficient against top defenses. Wisconsin is one of the top defensive teams in the country, as is Ohio State. Michigan State handled both of them in succession.

At first glance, the other thing working in Michigan State's favor is that it doesn't seem to have been placed in a particularly tough bracket. Missouri is a team to be reckoned with, but none of the other teams in the West stand out as being truly excellent.

As long as the Spartans can avoid another slip-up like the one they experienced at the end of the regular season, I'd say they're in good shape.

Upset Odds: 11/1

Syracuse Orange (East)

Syracuse managed to lose just one game during the regular season despite the fact it rarely looked dominant in any of its wins. It wasn't always pretty, but the Orange just kept finding ways to get it done.

In the Big East tournament, Syracuse was up to its usual tricks. The Orange barely handled UConn in the quarterfinals, and then dug themselves too deep a hole against Cincinnati to have any shot at a comeback.

The Orange depend on proper execution more than most teams. They're a solid defensive team, and keeping their opponents under wraps on defense will have to be a major part of their tournament run. But if Syracuse digs itself a hole again, it really doesn't have enough offense to stage a comeback.

The top teams in the East bracket are primarily defensive teams, so Syracuse should be thankful that it's not on a collision course with any elite offensive teams (i.e. Missouri). Still, I think Syracuse is the most beatable of the No. 1 seeds.

Upset Odds: 7/1

North Carolina Tar Heels (Midwest)

If the Tar Heels have a healthy John Henson, they probably beat Florida State to win the ACC tournament. In fact, very few teams can match up with North Carolina when it has all its key players out on the court.

But this doesn't make North Carolina invincible. The Tar Heels are talented, and they have a tendency to be flashy, but they're not perfect. They lost some games they really had no business losing this season, and one trend that has held true from last season is that the Tar Heels don't always hit back when their opponents present them with a stiff challenge.

Despite the fact the Tar Heels are easily the most talented team in the Midwest bracket, they really can't be relied on to make it to the Final Four. The Midwest bracket has some solid teams, a couple of which (i.e. NC State, Lamar) are coming into the tournament with chips on their shoulders.

I'd say North Carolina is at risk.

Upset Odds: 9/1

For your printable NCAA bracket, click here.