Big 12 Tournament 2012: Chances for Every Team to Win

The Big 12 regular season has come to a close and Kansas is, once again, the regular season champion.

Yet, how will the Jayhawks and the other Big 12 teams fare in the Big 12 conference tournament and which teams have the best chance of coming away with the conference title?

The following will examine the odds of each Big 12 team’s chances at stealing, or retaining, the Big 12 title.

Note: The Big 12 tournament will begin on March 7, 2012 and conclude on March 10.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Conference Record: 1-17

Analysis: The Texas Tech Red Raiders stand alone at the bottom of the Big 12 standings.

Tech was able to bring home its only conference win against Oklahoma, but it still did not play anything near good basketball. 10 of the Red Raiders’ conference losses came by 15 or more points.

This team just does not have the talent, coaching, experience or chemistry necessary to be a legitimate threat in the Big 12 tournament.

Chances: 1/1,000,000 or .001

Texas A&M Aggies

Conference Record: 4-14

Analysis: The Texas A&M Aggies were supposed to be one of the best teams in the Big 12 this year. Some even had them winning the whole thing.

In the end, however, the Aggies finished in second-to-last place during the regular season, winning only four conference games.

It seems as though the roller coaster offseason and regular season were just too much for A&M to handle.

From a statistical point of view, this team did not finish better than 199th (rebounds per game) in any major category.

The Aggies will play the Oklahoma Sooners in the first round of tournament, a rematch of the regular season finale in which the Sooners edged out A&M by three.

Chances: 1/1000 or . 5 percent

Oklahoma Sooners

Conference Record: 5-13

Analysis: The Sooners had a rather successful non-conference season, winning all but two games.

Then the Sooners had to face two of the Big 12’s best teams, Missouri and Kansas, in back-to-back matchups. As a result, Oklahoma began the conference season on a three-game skid, and things never got much better for the Sooners.

The problem with Oklahoma this season was their inability to pull through in the big games. They kept pace in some of their losses, but couldn't put the finishing touches on any big wins.

Then again, Oklahoma finished the season on a positive note with a three-point win over Texas A&M, after nearly giving up a 14-point lead.

With more experience in the coming years, Oklahoma may be able to move up to the middle of the Big 12 standings. However, with how they are playing now, the Sooners cannot compete with the best of them.

Chances: 1/1000 or .1 percent

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Conference Record: 7-11 record

Analysis: The Oklahoma State Cowboys may not be impressive on paper, but they can be a dangerous team when they play their best.

Led by senior Keiton Page (16.8 points per game), the Cowboys have been in some pretty impressive contests this year.

The Cowboys were able to knock off Missouri, ranked No. 2 in the country at the time. In addition, OSU gave Baylor a run for its money in Stillwater.

Oklahoma State marks the end of the middle-tier teams in the Big 12, but they are not a team to be taken lightly.

That said, it is unlikely that the Cowboys can pull off a Cinderella run.

Chances: 1/200 or .5 percent.

Texas Longhorns

Conference Record: 9-9

Analysis: The Texas Longhorns had arguably the most frustrating season out of any team in the Big 12 this year.

Boasting an impressive roster led by junior guard J’Covan Brown (20 points per game) and highly touted freshman Myck Kabongo, this Texas squad simply did not play to its full potential.

Six of the Longhorns’ conference losses came by ten points or fewer, including a heartbreaking loss to Baylor at home.

This team is full of talent, but head coach Rick Barnes is going to have figure out how to get his team to play at the next level before the Longhorns can be taken seriously as Big 12 title contenders.

Right now, UT still needs to prove it is good enough to make the NCAA tournament.

Chances: 1/20 or 5 percent 

Kansas State Wildcats

Conference Record: 10-8

Analysis: The Kansas State Wildcats may not have the best record in the Big 12, but they are a team to be reckoned with.

They play in one of the fiercest environments in college basketball, the Octagon of Doom, and head coach Frank Martin is not someone any player wants to disappoint.

That sounds like a recipe for success, but the Wildcats have not been able to capitalize on their strengths this year and have become one of the most inconsistent teams in the Big 12.

For example, the Wildcats were able to knock off Baylor and Missouri in two back-to-back road tests, but lost to Oklahoma twice.

Kansas State is a dangerous team when hot and, if it can bring that fire into the tournament, there is a good chance the Wildcats can go far.

Chances: 1/20 or 5 percent

Iowa State Cyclones

Conference Record: 12-6

Analysis: The Iowa State Cyclones knocked off Kansas and Baylor at home this season.

That said, the Cyclones are a completely different team on the road, which is where all but one of their losses came, making the neutral tournament court situation both an advantage and a disadvantage.

If Iowa State plans on going far in the Big 12 tournament it had better make sure that both Royce White and Scott Christopherson are on point.

Then again, one might find it hard to believe that the Cyclones are good enough to knock off Missouri or Kansas again.

Chances: 1/20 or 5 percent

Baylor Bears

Conference Record: 12-6

Analysis: After starting the season on a school-record 17-game win streak, the Baylor Bears fell at the hands of Kansas in a thrashing at Allen Fieldhouse.

After that the Bears would go on to lose another game to Kansas, two to Missouri, a heart-breaker at home to Kansas State and their regular season finale at Iowa State.

The problem with Baylor is that the team gets down on itself when it starts to make mistakes and cannot rebound fast enough to fend off a game-winning run by the opponent.

The good news is that head coach Scott Drew and the seniors have experience playing in March and know what it is going to take to bring home the title.

Chances: 1/10 or 10 percent

Missouri Tigers

Conference Record: 27-4

Analysis: The Missouri Tigers have been the biggest surprise of the Big 12 this year and one of college basketball’s best stories.

With first year head coach and Coach of the Year candidate Frank Haith at the helm, Missouri peaked at No. 2 in the national polls and sat atop the Big 12 standings for the majority of the season.

Missouri has shown the college world that a team can win playing a very unconventional guard-game that utilizes the three-point line like no other team.

The only problem is that once this facet of the game is shut down, the Tigers have a hard time winning.

That said, few teams have been able to shut down the Tigers' outside game.

Chances: 1/4 or 25 percent 

Kansas Jayhawks

Conference Record: 16-2

Analysis: Right now, the Kansas Jayhawks are playing the best basketball in the Big 12 and have probably earned themselves a one-seed in the NCAA tournament.

They finished the season on an eight-game winning streak, including victories over Baylor and Missouri.

On top of all of the regular season accolades and rankings the Jayhawks received, superstar Thomas Robinson may have earned himself Player of the Year honors.

The Jayhawks are one of the most dangerous teams in the country thanks to the extreme level of skill of their startling five.

In addition, do not discount head coach Bill Self and the experience level he gives to his team.

Anything can happen come tournament time, but Kansas, once again, has to be the hands down favorite to win the Big 12 tournament.

Chances: 1/2 or 50 percent