2012 NFL Free Agents: Could Arian Foster Really Leave the Houston Texans?

Among all the big name free agent to be running backs that have been discussed lately, such as Ray Rice of the Baltimore Ravens, Matt Forte of the Chicago Bears and Marshawn Lynch of the Seattle Seahawks one big name has avoided much mention.

Arian Foster of the Houston Texans, mainly because unlike the above mentioned names Foster is a restricted free agent, as he only has three years of accrued service.

Foster, who has gained well over 3,500 total yards and scored 30 touchdowns over the past two seasons, made a whopping $525,000 last year and it's understandable that he's looking for both a significant raise and long-term stability.

For his part, Foster has been saying all the right things publicly, telling the Texans' website.

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"They already know that I want to stay in Houston. I’m just looking for that day. Hopefully, I can. Hopefully, they can make my dream come true, because I just love the city of Houston, man. I really do.”

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The assumption made by most people (myself included) was that the Texans and Foster would hammer out a contract before March 13 (the deadline for free agency). However, in a recent two-part article by Texans Examiner Alan Burge raised some interesting—and somewhat troubling—problems that could arrive if a deal isn't struck by then.

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"As a restricted free agent, Foster is not able to just sign with any team he chooses. The Texans still own his rights, and any team that chooses to try and pull him away must make an offer that the Texans have the opportunity to match."

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All quite true and it leads you to assume that the Texans would match the offer, or that teams would be leery of making too big an offer due to the additional compensation that a team must pay in the form of a first-round draft pick.

However, that penalty isn't as severe as it once was, as pointed out by Mr. Burge:

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"In the past, teams had to give up a 1st and a 3rd round pick IN ADDITION to a large contract for the highest tendered deal."

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So, yes, in theory it is now more possible for another team to sign a restricted free agent, especially if a team is ruthless enough to enclose a "poison pill" clause in the deal, which although highly frowned on is still technically legal.

As is stated in the article, there are a few teams in the NFL this year with ridiculous amounts of cap space, but of those teams only the Cincinnati Bengals really fit the bill (cap room, need at running back, playoff contender). I have a really hard time seeing Bengals owner Mike Brown either offering Foster a six-year, $95 million contract or risking the ire of the entire NFL by including a provision that guarantees the entire deal if five games in Foster's first season are played in Texas.

I agree with him completely that the easiest and most obvious solution is simply to sit down with Arian Foster and get the deal done, but Mr. Burge fails to mention that Foster could also be given the Franchise tag and while he could still negotiate with (and even sign with) another squad, that team would then owe the Texans two first-round draft picks and the odds of that happening are even slimmer.

Were one of those two incredibly unlikely scenarios to come to pass, the Texans front office would have a heck of a decision on their hands, especially given how well backup ballcarrier Ben Tate has played when called upon. However, that bridge is awfully far away to worry about crossing it just yet.

While I enjoyed both reading the article itself and writing about it as it makes for an interesting "what if?" scenario, some good conversation odds are Houston Texans running back Arian Foster will be signed well before free agency opens and the odds are even greater that he'll be the Texans starting running back in 2012.