MLB Free Agency: Will MLB Contracts Get Smaller in Future Years?

Since the 1980s, baseball’s free agency contracts have only grown one way: bigger. In the 1980s, a top free agent could earn $2-3 million over multiple seasons. In January 2012, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder each signed for more than $200 million over nine years. But, is there growing evidence that free agency deals will grow smaller in future years?

Deals for elite players are still growing, but there is some compelling evidence that contract sizes for second tier star players and role players are coming down.

In 2006, Barry Zito, Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee all signed for more than $100 million. At the time, all three were viewed as star players, but not the very best at their position. Teams were willing to pay over $100 million for high (but not elite) level production.

In 2008, the top two players on the market, Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia, were both elite players who received over $100 million, but A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe and Ryan Dempster were all signed for more than $50 million. 

In 2009, John Lackey and Jason Bay both signed for over $60 million, and in 2010, Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford each got over $120 million. Every single one of the deals, which involved non-elite star players and over $50 million, has ended in relative failure. 

But, in 2011, there was seismic change: future Hall of Famers Pujols and Fielder signed for monumental deals, and elite shortstop Jose Reyes got $100 million, but no non-elite star players signed huge contracts.

The closest comparable to A.J. Burnett, talented but inconsistent Edwin Jackson, initially targeted five years for $50 million, but signed for one year at $11 million. 

The star players who signed for between $50 and $100 million were longtime, durable White Sox ace Mark Buerhle, Rangers pitcher C.J. Wilson, Japanese phenomenon Yu Darvish (not counting the posting fee) and star closer Jonathan Papelbon. 

Of those deals, only Wilson’s and Papelbon’s look like they could implode, which is a far cry from 2006, when all three players who signed for over $100 million were not worth even close to that amount of money.

So, are we seeing a real change in free agency behavior that will last into the future? Or is this just a product of a weak market, and a national recession? Only time will tell but, at least for 2011, star-level role players were not overpaid. Will it last?