Podcast: Picking Super Bowl Winner, Madonna's Hair Color, Through Science & Luck

Paul Bessire, GM of PredictionMachine.com, joins the show for his annual look at all the wagers we can bet our houses on this Super Bowl Sunday. 

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Paul's system simulates every game 50,000 times before providing the projected winner. This year, not only does PredictionMachine have the Giants covering, but Paul has them as an outright winner. 

We talk about the Giants pick and all the factors that go into the outcome. How does his system account for injuries, referee tendencies, special-teams mistakes, "the revenge factor" and just plain dumb luck? 

We also run the gamut on some of the better prop bets, including Madonna's hair color, choice of attire and whether she will have a headset or a microphone. Paul says there is good value on microphone. Yes, he did the research.

Speaking of value, Paul explains why some picks are worth the risk based on the presented odds—you may not think Rob Gronkowski will win the MVP but if the chances in Paul's system are better than 10/1 odds, it's worth a play.

He also explains that rarely do the best betting odds correlate to the guy with the best betting value, but this year, his numbers show Eli Manning being the smart choice for MVP.

I ask if fans are more or less likely to bet on a game in which their favorite team is playing, and if a matchup with large fanbases actually creates less action on the game.

There is a good back and forth on the science of gambling, but a lot of it goes back to dumb luck. Or does it?  

Why can't a producer for NBC or a set designer for the halftime show see a prop bet—Madonna's hair or Kelly Clarkson's attire—and throw some decent money on a sure thing? If the over-under on Peyton Manning being on screen is three times, why couldn't the director of the game make sure he's shown four times,  just to give himself a little Super Bowl bonus?

We also talk about the TV ratings and if we think more than 117 million people will tune in.

It's a fun show as always with Paul. Every year I joke I'm going to bet my house on his predictions and every year I regret not doing it. Either way, it's always fun to see what science and luck can do for fun and profit.