2012 NFL Draft: 5 Biggest Boom or Bust Players

Coming into the 2012 draft, there are a few high-profile players feared to be a future bust in the NFL.

The pool of players is not as saturated with talent as in past years, so that brings even more questions to the minds of teams and fans alike.

As April draws nearer, you will start hearing more and more about “sure thing” players and “risky picks,” and today that is just what we will be discussing.

In past NFL drafts there have been players said to be ready to start immediately and be an anchor for their new team for the next decade or more.

Some players that have been extreme busts are Tony Mandarich with Green Bay in 1989, David Boston with Arizona in 1999, and Tim Couch with Cleveland the same year.

Sometimes it works out for a prospect.

In fact, the Packers drafted Mandarich at No. 2 overall in that 1989 draft just after Troy Aikman and just before Barry Sanders, Derrick Thomas, and Deion Sanders; all of whom are now in the NFL Hall of Fame.

Are there any future Hall of Famers in the 2012 draft class?

That question will take 20 years to answer, however now we will look at some high risk/high reward players expected to be taken in the first round in April.

Vontaze Burfict, Linebacker, Arizona State

If the NFL owners have a heart, they will allow Burfict to fall to Baltimore at No. 29 in the first round.

Anywhere else and this kid may be the biggest bust since “The Boz” in the late 1980s.

Burfict has the natural ability of Ravens future Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis, but the self-control of a toddler.

While at Arizona State, he showed flashes of a young Lewis, relentlessly hunting down running backs and helpless quarterbacks.

But if someone is able to get under his paper-thin skin, he becomes completely obsolete on the field.

Whatever issue he has, it consumes him and he cannot focus on assignments or read plays as they unfold in front of him. It has led to several unsportsmanlike conduct penalties—like this head-butt to Oregon State quarterback Jonathan Katz—and some people calling him a dirty player.

The opportunity for Burfict to learn how to be a man under Lewis would be the best thing for his career. If he goes anywhere else, it is a safe bet that the proverbial candle on his career would burn out before anyone gets to see him become something great.

Best guess: Bust

Robert Griffin III, Quarterback, Baylor

The winner of the 2011 Heisman Trophy, Griffin’s stock is rising hourly.

By the time the draft actually gets here he may be in the discussion for No. 3 to Minnesota.

Do not expect that.

There has also been much talk of Cleveland taking him at No. 4, should he be there.

Do not expect that, either.

Would his stock be so high if Cam Newton came out in 2011 and struggled to grasp the NFL’s style of play?

While that answer is obvious, the answer to the next question is not.

Is he worth the high draft pick?

Everyone knows he can run like the wind, and he can execute in a spread offense with the best of them. However, Cleveland runs the West Coast offense; very different from his offense at Baylor.

There will be a vast learning curve whichever team he plays for, and the year Newton had as a rookie will not be duplicated by Griffin—or anyone—anytime soon.

That is not to say he will fail miserably; it is just a plea for people to snap back to reality for a minute and realize what the spread offense is with quarterbacks like Newton, Griffin, and even the beloved Tim Tebow—an expanded version of the Wildcat.

Remember how successful the Wildcat was and how quickly it stopped working?

In 2008, the Miami Dolphins used the Wildcat formation to run over teams on their way to an 11-5 season.

Within a calendar year, teams knew what to look for and began to game plan for such formations, effectively rendering the Wildcat, well, ineffective.

The Griffin-style spread offense is next.

Best guess: Bust

Luke Kuechly, Linebacker, Boston College

An undersized middle linebacker, Kuechly may be best suited for an outside role in the League.

He has great instincts, but for his lack of overall girth (6’2” and 235 pounds), it needs to be said that he is not the ideal prospect in the top-15.

Comments from ESPN Scouts Inc. like “Lacks great speed and change-of-direction skills, so range is a bit limited,” are bothersome.

Then it is said that he “lacks ideal burst and lateral agility. Shows stiffness in hips and has range limitations in coverage,” and by now you should be pumping the breaks on him a bit.

But he is the most instinctual and possibly the smartest defensive player entering the draft, so what he lacks in natural ability he makes up for in brains. He is where he is supposed to be on the field every play, and that will allow him the time he needs to work with NFL strength and conditioning coaches to become a bigger, faster player.

He totaled 532 tackles and three-dozen tackles-for-loss in three seasons at BC; how “limited” can he be?

Best guess: Boom

David Wilson, Running Back, Virginia Tech

Not well known like Trent Richardson or Lamar Miller, Wilson is flying a bit under the radar among experts.

When he works out at the combine, he will turn heads and turn himself into a top-20 pick.

He was made using the same mold as Maurice Jones-Drew and Ahmad Bradshaw: Short and stocky.

He is 5’10” and weighs 205 pounds.

Wilson is faster than both MJD and Bradshaw, however. He doubles as a kick returner and is deadly after the catch in the passing game. He has a gymnast’s balance and the running power of Mike Alstott.

In the right system, he may end up being more valuable than Richardson, in turn being the better player.

Best guess: Boom

Mike Adams, Offensive Tackle, Ohio State

There is not much film to look at on Adams.

He was among the unfortunately named “Tatted Five” that were suspended and forced to miss games in 2011 for selling memorabilia to artists in exchange for tattoos.

Before that he missed time due to injury—he has had multiple surgeries to repair knee and shoulder injuries throughout his college career.

Adams was arrested and charged with misdemeanor possession of drug paraphernalia in 2009.

But beyond the injury and character issues, he has a ton of potential and could be up there with Matt Kalil and Jonathan Martin when we look back on this draft in five years.

He is quick with his feet and has shown flashes of brute strength in run blocking.

In the passing game, he is capable of holding off a bull rush and quick enough to fend off a speed rusher, but is not yet consistent enough to be considered elite at either.

He will make a team look very smart or very foolish for drafting him in the first round. ESPN has moved him to No. 6 at his position and is now the overall No. 47-ranked player in the draft.

Best guess: Boom