Australian Open 2012: Why the Federer Serve Is Key for Victory over Nadal

Once the 2012 Australian Open draw was released, the buzz around the tennis world was the potential semifinal matchup between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal.

Tennis world, you just got your wish.

After Nadal proved too strong for Tomas Berdych and the Fed Express simply steamrolled Juan Martin Del Potro, the two will meet and do battle for spot in the final of the Australian Open.

With a growing history, and both players arguably in the top five players of all time, Federer and Nadal are sure to engage in another brilliant, classy and jaw-dropping encounter with no shortage of ability on either end of the court.

Despite this match posing as one that is sure to feature a plethora of classy strokes and shots that we all dream of playing, it could all fall down to the service battle between the two.

Tomas Berdych pushed Nadal early with his big serve, and despite some contentious umpiring decisions, probably should have gone up two sets to love. The match would have been entirely different.

Against Federer, the service battle will have the exact same significance.

Once a weaker element of his game, Roger has improved his serve greatly over the years to the point that when interviewed earlier in the tournament, Nadal claimed he would take the Federer serve over any of his other tennis abilities.

Simply put, the serve matters.

This year, however, the numbers aren't simply adding up for Federer when he is serving the ball.

In his first round match, Federer won 80 percent of his first serve points yet only landed 63 percent of his first serve. He ran out a three sets to love winner.

After a walkover in the second round, Roger again won 80 percent of his first serve points, and again, only landed 62 percent of his first serves.

Against Australian hopeful Bernard Tomic in the round of 16, the Swiss maestro took 84 percent of his first serve points yet landed a woeful 58 percent of first serves.

And in the quarter finals, Federer landed 57 percent of his first serves against Del Potro and won on 89 percent of those first serves.

Alarmingly for the former world No. 1 is that despite the percentage of points he is winning on his first serve going up throughout the tournament (from 80 to 89), his first serve percentage is going in the other direction and sits at about 50 percent.

Against a classy player like Rafa, Federer must land a higher proportion of his first serves in if he is to go on and win this match. Despite not dropping a set so far, he has not been challenged by the class of players such as the Spaniard, whose dogged determination will see him fight to the death.

Nadal was top three across the entire ATP tour in 2011 in points won returning first serve, second serve, break points converted and return games won. Despite Roger ranking at the top of first serve points won in 2011 and second in service games won, he must improve his serve against Rafa if he is to go on and win this match.

Nadal holds a 17-9 advantage over Federer in their respective careers, but on hard court, that advantage is down to 5-4.

Could this one go to the five sets that we saw last time these two met at the Australian Open in 2009, where Nadal ultimately prevailed in an epic battle?

I certainly hope so, for the sake of tennis worldwide. But for all his brilliant ground-strokes and powerful ability, if the Roger Federer serve can't get going as it has done in years gone by, this one could be over far quicker than we ever expected.