Giants vs. Patriots Predictions: Stat Projections for New England RBs
The New England Patriots have the No. 2 passing offense in the NFL this season, putting up an average of 317.8 aerial yards per game.
However, if they are to stand a chance to defeat the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLVI, they'll have to get their running game heavily involved as well.
The Patriots averaged 110.3 rushing yards per game in the regular season, good for just 20th in the league, however it didn't harm the team at all. They won 13 of their 16 games thanks almost entirely to the strength of their passing offense.
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However, New England has realized that relying on passing alone won't help them win playoff games. In their two playoff games, they've had a bit of success running the ball.
Against the Denver Broncos in the divisional round, the Patriots had 146 yards on the ground, with their leading rusher, tight end Aaron Hernandez, gaining 61 yards on five carries.
Running the ball didn't come as easy against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC title game, however the 96 they managed is fairly impressive considering they gained them in the face of the Ravens' conference-leading run defense.
What is more impressive about that game was the fact they seemed committed to running the ball. Up against the Ravens' considerable pass rush that had quarterback Tom Brady off balance all day, they were willing to hand it off to running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis 15 times, for 68 yards and a score.
Brady also had a rushing touchdown in the game, his lone score of the week. In total, the Patriots ran the ball 31 times against the Ravens and will likely need to employ a similar strategy against the Giants and their tough pass rush in the Super Bowl.
It wouldn't surprise me if Green-Ellis again had 15 carries against the Giants and more than the 68 yards he put up against the Ravens last week.
Fellow running back Danny Woodhead is harder to project. He's been fairly off the radar in 2011, recording 20 fewer carries and nearly 200 fewer yards than in his breakout 2010 season.
He should get a few carries, but no more than five, and his small size won't do him many favors. Look for him to net around 20 rushing yards.
The wild card in the Patriots running game is tight end Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez had five carries for 45 yards in the regular season, but in his team's two playoff games has carried the ball a total of eight times for 70 yards.
It's clear the Patriots are employing a new tactic in the postseason when it comes to Hernandez's involvement in the offense. If this trend is to continue into the Super Bowl, then Hernandez will have five or six rushing opportunities of his own.
His yardage is hard to project, however. Hernandez is athletic and fast and is capable of getting downfield very quickly. If he breaks a tackle or two, he can end up with a 30- or 40-yard run. Otherwise, if he's held down, he'll have a day like he did against the Ravens, in which he carried the ball three times but earned just nine yards.
Hernandez's success depends more on how off guard the Giants defense is caught more than anything he is or isn't capable of doing when lined up as a running back.
Also valuable to the Patriots is rookie running back Stevan Ridley, but only if he's out of head coach Bill Belichick's doghouse.
Despite a number of breakout performances in 2011, including three straight games with over 60 yards rushing in the final weeks of the regular season, he found himself on the bench for the AFC championship game, inactive due to fumbling twice in the divisional round.
If Ridley plays, he might cut into some of Green-Ellis' carries, but with Belichick not likely to take chances with him, he won't be getting the 10 to 15 carries he had at season's end. Look for him to carry the ball around five times for modest gains, perhaps 25 yards in total.
The Patriots will surely need to run the ball to take the pressure off of Brady, that is for sure. Depending on how successful they are at it, it could make a major difference in the outcome of the game.
The Patriots would be well-served to have a more balanced offensive approach against the Giants in the Super Bowl, and they've seemed to make that adjustment in the postseason already.
Running the ball doesn't make Brady any less valuable or effective; in fact, it should only help his efforts in what's going to a rough day for the New England offense.

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