NFL Receivers: The Quality of Receiver Is Not Important to a Team's Success

It's no coincidence that championship-caliber teams have good receivers. Really good teams tend to have really good players. That said, elite receivers do not make a team great.

Neither do "Good" receivers, or "Decent" receivers, or whatever quality receiver there is left. In fact, the quality of receiver does not have an immediate effect on how a particular team does in any particular season.

All a team really needs is an NFL-caliber receiver, and that's it. Yes, having an elite receiver is nice, but it's not necessary for a team to succeed. The chemistry between the receivers and the quarterback is more important.

Take the best team in past decade, the New England Patriots, as exhibit A.

The Patriots won three championships from 2001-2004, the AFC in 2007 and 2011, and won 134 regular season games. In 2007, the Patriots had their star-studded 18-1 team. Their stable of receivers included Wes Welker (112 catches), Randy Moss, one of the most talented receivers of all-time, Donte Stallworth, a big play threat that averaged 15.2 yards a catch, Kevin Faulk, Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson. Not a bad group. They combined for 4,859 yards and 50 touchdowns. And they won a grand total of zero championships.

While they did play for a title, did their team really improve all that much from the year before? They almost won the AFC in 2006 and won the division in 2005. New England was an elite team before they acquired Moss, Welker and company. The much celebrated ’07 receiving corps didn’t improve the team that much, especially when compared to the success New England had with a much, allegedly, less-talented group of receivers from early in the 21^st century.

Troy Brown, Deion Branch, David Givens, David Patten, Daniel Graham and Christian Fauria are the names of the major receivers on the 2003-04 dynasty-defining championship Patriot teams. If you combine all of their accolades you will come up with one Pro Bowl appearance, one All-Pro appearance (both were Brown in 2001) and a total of 14 championship rings. This isn’t even including the ageless  Faulk who was a major contributor in all three of the Patriots Super Bowls in the early 2000’s.

It was widely believed that Tom Brady never had quality receivers until 2007, but Brady and the Patriots were much more successful with a less-heralded group of wideouts than with a very talented group of receivers. If the quality of receivers mattered, how is this possible?

Shouldn’t teams with elite receivers have more success than teams without elite receivers? That would make sense right?  For comparisons let’s take three of the best receivers in the last 15 years: Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald and Moss to be exact, and see how their teams did.

Their collective resumes are much more impressive than that of the receivers on the dynastic Patriots teams. The three players combine to be selected to 18 Pro Bowls and 12 All-Pro teams. They caught 2,337 passes, 285 touchdowns and 34,602 receiving yards. While their teams had a winning record in the playoffs, 12-9, they went 241-255 in the regular season and 0-3 in Super Bowls.

Despite the greatness of Smith, Fitzgerald and Moss, in their 31 collective, healthy, seasons their teams performed worse than the Patriots did with their “less-talented” receiving corps.

The explanation is simple: The success of any given team and receiver is more based on the quality of play from the quarterback, offensive-line and defense. Especially in the case of the receivers if the quarterback can’t get them the ball, whether its because of lack of time or incompetence, the receiver will not get his numbers.

The converse it true as well: if the receiver is decent and the quarterback is great than the receiver will have more catchable balls thrown to him, and usually more catches. The quality of the receiver does not matter.

What does matter is the chemistry between receiver and quarterback. What made the 2001-2004 Patriots so lethal was not the quality of their receivers. It was the chemistry between the receivers and Brady.

In the NFL, as with any other level of football, quarterbacks want receivers that they trust. They will prefer to throw the ball to receivers that they trust and that makes sense, because what matters is not the receiver’s numbers or who catches the ball, but moving the ball down the field. And that is true regardless of how great the receiver is.