NFC Championship Predictions: Balance and Experience Will Lead Giants to Victory

I don't generally like to use vague concepts such as "balance" and "experience" when making a prediction.

So let me explain to you why I'm breaking my own rules and using them in my prediction that the New York Giants will defeat the San Francisco 49ers.

When I talk about balance for the Giants, I mean to say that I believe they are solid in more areas on the field than the 49ers are.

I believe the Giants do two things at an elite level: Rush the quarterback and attack opposing defenses by throwing the ball with Eli Manning.

But rushing the quarterback is aided by stopping the run game and setting up obvious passing downs, something the Giants did particularly well against the Atlanta Falcons two weeks ago when they held the Falcons' ball-control offense to only 64 rushing yards.

In turn, pressure on opposing quarterbacks often covers up the fact that the Giants secondary can be porous and vulnerable against elite passing attacks.

The Giants have an elite passing attack on the offensive side of the ball, led by quarterback Manning and receivers Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. They relied on their passing game for most of the regular season, as their rushing offense averaged a league-worst 89.2 yards per game.

That has held mostly true in the playoffs, though they've proven capable of running the ball when needed. The Giants rushed for 172 yards against the Falcons, and though they only mustered 95 yards against Green Bay last week, Manning was having enough success against Green Bay's secondary to render the running game unnecessary.

It's no secret that the 49ers win by doing three things well: Running the ball, winning the turnover battle and playing solid, physical defense.

But do you really believe that Alex Smith and Vernon Davis will be able to lead San Francisco to a victory over the Giants' swarming defense like they did against the Saints last week? Especially against a Giants defense I believe will shut down the running game?

I don't, and one problem is the second vague concept I'm using in my argument: experience.

I simply don't think Alex Smith has the playoff experience needed to lead the 49ers to another playoff win. I don't think he or the Niners are ready for the pass rush of the Giants or the high level of Manning's play right now.

I'm not sure the 49ers can win a game if they can't win the turnover margin by a large number—honestly, they would have never beat the Saints without all of New Orleans turnovers last week—and I don't think the playoff-tested Manning or the rest of the Giants offense will turn the ball over in droves like the Saints did last week.

Finally, I simply don't think Smith is ready to take the 49ers to the next level just yet. He's had his best season as a pro, but that doesn't mean he's a Super Bowl quarterback just yet.

For my money, team balance and experience fall on the side of the Giants. Ultimately, I think that's why victory will also be theirs on Sunday evening.

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