Why Wet Weather Will Help the San Francisco 49ers Shock the Experts

It’s now clear the 49ers will need to weather a literal storm and a torrent of national doubters to reach their first Super Bowl since 1994.

Rain descended on 49er-land starting Thursday and all reports say it will continue through kick-off Sunday at Candlestick.

Could be it’s just a light drizzle and sloppy conditions, or a monsoon and large puddle for a playing field; either way, it'll be good business for the guy selling red ponchos in the parking lot.

The rain isn’t a surprise—it’s been in the forecast for a week. But what is unexpected is how little it’s being discussed by the national media. Come hell or high water the professional prognosticators are insistent the Giants are the hottest thing since Hanzel.

Unfortunately for this line of narrow-minded thinkers, history has shown that wet weather games are won by teams that don’t make mistakes, run the ball effectively and have solid special teams.

By any objective measurement the 49ers are better than the Giants in all three of these facets.

• San Francisco’s was No. 1 in the league this season in turnover ratio with an obscene plus-28. The Giants ranked 8th at plus-7.  
• The 49ers were eighth in the league in rushing (127 YPG), while the Giants ranked dead last (89 YPG).
• The 49ers have an All-Pro Kicker (David Akers) and an All-Pro Punter (Andy Lee) who had historically good regular seasons. Neither Lawrence Tynes nor Steve Weatherford for the Giants finished in the Top 10 in any meaningful measurements for their position.

Despite all this evidence to the contrary, when the wet weather is occasionaly brought up by the experts, the Giants are always identified as the team that will benefit from it.

After all they play in the New York where it snows sometimes, they won a tough road game in frigid Green Bay, and they’ve got four good pass-rushing linemen.

This line of thinking is so asinine it’s tough to get my head around.

How does playing in cold, dry weather prepare you for slopping through rainy, 50 degree muck at Candlestick?

And if the game is decided on the ground, would you rather have the team with the league's worst running game and a great pass rush, or the one with one with a Top 10 rushing attack and the best run defense in football?

What is even more confusing is that all season this 49ers team has been pegged as a squad with a great defense and a bad quarterback that can only win low-scoring games. In short, a team perfectly constructed to play in bad weather.

Now that the rain is falling, suddenly San Francisco has an underrated quarterback, an overrated running game and a defense that folds under pressure?  

The 49ers have been fraudulently recast in the minds of the national media because of one game against the Saints historically good offense and because it makes for an easier storyline when explaining why they’ll lose to the "rugged" and "hot" Big Blue squad from New York.

The real reason the Giants may very well win is because of their clear edge at receiver. In a game that will be decided by a few big plays, the Faithful should have nightmares about Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz catching short slant passes and running past fallen 49ers defenders.

That said, there is no question that overall the wet weather helps the 49ers and ignoring this because it hurts the Super Bowl XLII rematch narrative is naive and narrow-minded.

The good news for 49ers fans is the continued national doubt fuels the underdog motivation that Jim Harbaugh has so expertly cultivated this season.

When the final whistle blows, and the wet scoreboard shows a 17-14 49ers victory, don’t let the experts tell you it was unexpected.