Novak Djokovic: Don't Expect Him to Win

At the in-progress Australian Open, way down under in Melbourne, Novak Djokovic is saying all of the right things.

He is happy to be in Aussie land. He appreciates that this tournament is where his monumental accomplishments of 2011, including three grand slam titles, began. He wants to continue to honor his home country, Serbia, by playing in the 2012 Olympic Games. And so on.

One would think Djokovic had not a care in the world.

However, it certainly did not appear that way at the end of 2011. When last we really saw him, at the ATP World Tour Finals in London, Djokovic was getting hammered, smarted and sent every which way on the court by stocky and sturdy, though in no way sensational, Janko Tipsarevic, his fellow Serbian countryman, the ninth-ranked player in the world.

Yes, Tipsarevic is ranked ninth, but he is not in the class of the top four players in the world: Murray, Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic. Thus it was an embarrassing loss for Djokovic last November 25, at tennis' year-end, round robin affair. In losing, Djokovic patently had no gas left in his tank.

To elaborate, here is how one newspaper described Djokovic's limpid loss to Tipsarevic that day:

"Djokovic suddenly looked very weary....Djokovic was broken again at the start of the decider. The zip of the first set had gone out of the 24-year-old's shots and he quickly slipped three match points down on his own serve. He saved two but dumped a forehand into the net on the third to give Tipsarevic a first win at the Finals."

Yuck.

Let's face it, after his stirring, virtually breathtaking comeback win at the U.S. Open to secure his third major of 2011, Novak Djokovic took a dive. There was a quantity of unprofessionalism attached to Djokovic's tennis demeanor from then until now.

Following the U.S. Open, there were the “quits” in matches, the real or unreal injuries, and the general hemming and hawing about whether he would play tournaments to which he had committed. It all tarnished his image a bit.

True professionals respect the game of tennis until the last match, until the last winner or error of the season. Novak Djokovic didn't do that. He had his cake. He ate it. That was that. The rest of the year be damned.

Reverberate to 2012. Djokovic believes he is fit and ready. By going to a tropical isle for two weeks after the London Tour Finals debacle, Novak believes he has overcome what he called his “mental and physical fatigue.” Djokovic also believes there is no reason he cannot duplicate his best of 2011.

Here is how Djokovic summarizes his optimism:

“I think everything is possible. Obviously 2011 has been the best year so far in my career. It's going to be very difficult to repeat what I have done. But, look, I've done it once. Why not twice? Why not staying optimistic and positive about the whole season?" http://www.novakdjokovic.rs/news.php?akcija=vise&id=1456&jezik=2

Novak Djokovic claims he has spent five weeks preparing for 2012 Australia.

Let's see: two weeks at a tropical isle...five weeks of preparation...that's seven. Since November 25, 2011, it's been just about seven weeks...uh, it's possible.

With the way he looked versus Tipsarevic, he surely needed all five of those putative weeks. The problem with his jolly month-and-a-quarter is that it's not battle-tested preparation, but the kind of preliminary preparation an NBA player, for example, does in the off-season.

In his opening match at Australia yesterday, Djokovic rolled over a no-name opponent, losing only two games. The contest probably added to his inflated sense of security.

Nadal, Federer, and Murray, Djokovic's principal adversaries on the ATP circuit, have been playing high-level tennis while Djokovic alternately soaked up some tropical breezes, and practiced in isolation.

That kind of “preparation” is no formula for winning the first major of the year, especially in Melbourne's grueling conditions.