UFC 142 Bleacher Report MMA Staff Predictions

Dwight WakabayashiJun 7, 2018

UFC 142 in Rio de Janeiro is the kick off event of the year for the top mixed martial arts organization in the world and is the second taste for Brazilian fans in less than five months. The main card is carried by two top home country fighters in Jose Aldo and legend Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort. Aldo will put his featherweight title on the line against tenacious, strong wrestler Chad "Money" Mendes and Belfort will welcome monster Anthony "Rumble" Johnson into the middleweight division.

In true UFC style the card is rounded out by three more home country fighters; Rousimar Palhares faces Mike Massenzio, highly touted Erick Silva will battle Carlo Prater and raw youngster Edson Barboza takes on the Brit, Terry Etim.

If the last show in Brazil was any indication, the raucous fans will rock the house and kick off the UFC season in style, and the match-ups on this card will deliver some fireworks and excitement right from the get-go with Barboza and Etim. The Bleacher Report MMA Staff Prediction Team is recharged, locked and loaded to deliver you the straight goods. Simply because they don't mess around in Brazil, we have summoned the creme of the BR crop with John Heinis, Dale De Souza, Jordy McElroy and Brian Lopez-Benchimol, and here we go.

Edson Barboza vs Terry Etim

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Dwight Wakabayashi

In a great match up to see who the real, better young prospect is; Barbosa vs. Etim is a very intriguing matchup with major implications on each man's career.

Barboza is a very explosive striker who will look to keep this one in the stand up and pick Etim apart enough to score the finish near the end of the fight. The young Brazilian will also have the home crowd on his side.

Etim has adequate striking himself, but I am sure his game plan will look to get this one to his absolute strengths and on to the mat for a grappling war.

The Briton will have to get the takedown first and I just don't see him being able to get the elusive and explosive Barbosa down.

Barboza via unanimous decision

John Heinis

I would have preferred to see Sam Stout vs. Thiago Tavares in this spot, but not because Barboza vs. Etim is a bad fight.

Etim is one of those fighters that will probably never fight for a major title, but he always puts in exciting fights (14 finishes in 15 wins, only stopped once) so he will probably be in the UFC for a while.

Despite no BJJ credentials to write home about, Etim has 12 submission wins and looks like an ace on the ground.

However, don't expect Barboza, a Muay Thai black belt, to let this fight hit the ground.

Not that he'd be afraid to since he has a purple belt in BJJ, but he just has way better striking and Etim isn't exactly a world class wrestler either (he's British).

This fight is easy to call: Barboza keeps it standing and picks Etim apart until the ref steps in.

Edson Barboza via third round TKO

Jordy McElroy

This is solid matchmaking by Joe Silva.

Terry Etim versus Edson Barboza should provide early fireworks to kick off this Rio de Janeiro fight card.

Barboza, who remains undefeated in his MMA career, packs some serious kickboxing skills that have resulted in six of his nine wins coming by knockout.

Etim is a solid striker himself, but the vast majority of his wins have come by submission.

A major hole in Etim’s overall fight game is his wrestling. He has solid submission skills, but submissions are meaningless if you lack the ability to get the fight to the ground.

Barboza is a powerful striker, who should be able to rough Etim up in the standup exchanges. Etim will have to use his striking to keep Barboza at a safe distance and seek takedowns when the pocket closes.

This is a bout that favors Barboza heavily in terms of the style match-up, but the Brazilian can’t afford to get reckless. Etim’s incredibly lanky frame makes it easier for him to lock up standing guillotine variations.

With that said, Barboza should be able to best the standup exchanges and keep the bout standing en route to an exciting unanimous decision.

Edson Barboza by Unanimous Decision

Dale De Souza

The time it took for Edson Barboza to agree to a bout against Terry Etim in Rio was significantly longer than it took Terry Etim to return to the win column against Edward Faaloloto at UFC 138.

So was Barboza’s close split-decision win at UFC 134 over Ross Pearson in a “Fight of The Night” winner.

How do you top off those types of performances?

Well, if you’re Etim, you come in with a plan to either show the world that you’ve been working noticeably on your striking, or you do what most folks think you should do and take Barboza to the ground, where he has not really been tested.

If you’re Barboza, you remember that you’re in Brazil—basically, you’re on home turf—and you do everything in your power to take Etim’s feet out from under him.

Etim is a good fighter and is looking to make a case for the first crack at the winner of either Edgar-Henderson, Pettis-Lauzon, or Nate Diaz’s next bout, but Sam Stout (who also fights on this card) never checked Etim’s legs the way Barboza will, and for that matter, Barboza never found himself in the tight submissions of Etim in his bouts against Pearson and Anthony Njokuani .

Both will be tested for sure, but if Etim cannot get Barboza to the ground, the Brazilian will end his night quickly, further improving his win streak and putting him one step closer to his own potential title opportunity.

Winner: Edson Barboza by Round 2 TKO (Leg Kicks and Punches)

Brian Lopez-Benchimol

An early candidate for "Fight of the Night", lightweight standouts Etim and Barboza have proven to be specialists in their respective areas of expertise.

Barboza, a touted muay thai specialist who has shown both heavy hands and crippling leg kicks.

Etim is an underrated jiu-jitsu practitioner who wields a fight-ending guillotine choke, which has earned him three of his four "Submission of the Night" awards.

Though he's young in his MMA career, Barboza looks to be the real deal and Etim will come to realize that when the Brazilian fends off the takedown and outstrikes the Brit for three rounds.

Barboza defeats Etim by Decision

Erick Silva vs Carlo Prater

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Dwight Wakabayashi

In what is surely a home country gift slot showcase for young talent Erick Silva, he will get to test his skills against a veteran and slight step up in competition in his career in Carlo Prater.

Silva has talent; speed and skill everywhere in the cage and the only thing I see stopping him in this one may be the home town jitters. If anything, the youngster could fall prey to emotions that leave him unfocussed and burning energy needlessly. That is a lethal mix against anyone and a savvy veteran like Prater will pounce on that.

It's a long shot though, and in the end I see Silva's star rising with a fairly quick knockout.

Silva wins via TKO punches in 2nd Round

John Heinis

Silva is an impressive talent that should see a pretty nice response from his home country. "Indio" barely broke a sweat in his UFC debut at UFC 134, knocking out Luis Ramos in just 40 seconds.

Heavy hands and a slick grappling game (seven submission wins, black belt in BJJ and Judo) can take a fighter very far.

Prater will be a great test though, having 40 professional fights under his belt at 30-years-old. He also boasts a black belt in BJJ and is an experienced Judo player, having earned his brown belt in that discipline.

A fun fact is that Prater actually submitted a young Carlos Condit with a triangle choke in 2004, though he tapped to a Condit guillotine in the 2008 rematch for the WEC welterweight title.

Silva will have to stay focused on his game plan, but he has the far better striking and a slightly superior grappling game that gives him all the advantages he needs in this one.

Erick Silva via unanimous decision (30-27)

Jordy McElroy

There are at least a couple of bouts on this card that should have received this spot on the main card.

The UFC hopes to showcase promising Brazilian prospect Erick Silva as he takes on MMA journeyman Carlo Prater.

Silva was rather impressive in his debut at UFC 134, where he knocked out Luis Ramos in 40 seconds. His ability to string together explosive combinations is something Prater has to watch out for in this fight.

Along with explosive striking, Silva is also talented on the ground. He is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and he trains under the Nogueira brothers.

Prater isn’t a cakewalk for any opponent. He is a wily veteran with past wins over the likes of Condit, Melvin Guillard and Spencer Fisher.

He is the type of opponent who can give a young fighter like Silva fits.

As long as the Brazilian stays composed and keeps the bout standing, he should be able to find openings to land often and put Prater away late in the second round.

Erick Silva by Round 2 TKO

Dale De Souza

Erick Silva is 13-1 with one no contest, facing the 29-10-1 veteran Carlo Prater.

Prater’s taken a few fights outside of the mainstream since the last time we saw him in the WEC, and if there is one big thing to take away from all of this, it’s something that Prater has brought up before the fight.

While are familiar enough with Silva to know about his 40-second knockout win over Luis Ramos and the fact that he’s a beastly prospect, we also know that he’s a prospect in the sport.

Prater is making his debut against Silva, yet he’ll arguably serve as Silva’s first big test in the UFC despite being a journeyman in the sport.

Also, it might be an area of concern to all who love stylistic clashes over brawls, but an interesting note is that Prater has submitted four of his last five opponents, and his last loss was to soon-to-be-debuting UFC prospect Reza Madadi, so one may expect Prater to have something of an edge in the grappling aspect of the game.

Experience may trump potential in most cases, but Silva is a man who trains with some of the best in the world, including the likes of Anderson Silva as well as the Nogueira brothers, so he’s always prepared to run into the worst, and regardless of what Prater brings to the table, Silva will answer that challenge in a big way—thus causing his own stock to rise once more.

Winner: Erick Silva by R1 TKO (punches)

Brian Lopez-Benchimol

A well respected veteran, Prater will finally be making his UFC debut after a long MMA career.

When Prater is in his game, he's about as dangerous as anyone in the world, though he often falters under pressure.

That's exactly what he's gonna get from Silva, as the once-beaten welterweight stalks Prater early gunning for another knockout, which he will cinch thanks to his long punches and the obvious power he wields, to which Luis Ramos can attest to.

Silva defeats Prater by KO, Rd. 1

Rousimar Palhares vs Mike Massenzio

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Dwight Wakabayashi

It's the boogeyman vs the journeyman in this one as the talented but somewhat spooky and unpredictable Palhares will battle wrester Mike Massenzio.

We are all familiar with Palhares' history of in cage foul-ups and antics but he does seem to have turned a corner in his career lately and the man is a beast in strength, take downs and top control.

Massenzio will once again hope that the hometown crowd and emotion plays with his opponent's focus and game plan, and the longer he hangs around and grinds in this one, he just may be able to pull out an upset.

If Palheres comes focused and keeps that mindset, I don't see Massenzio being able to stop him from doing anything he wants in this one.

Palhares wins via heel hook submission in 2nd Round

John Heinis

A classic wrestler vs. jiu-jitsu ace on paper, but this is a situation where very few, if any, analysts or fans are taking the wrestler.

Massenzio was a Junior College National Champion in 2004, but he is just 2-3 in the Octagon, as his takedowns and top control just have not translated all that well into the cage.

The bottom line is that "The Master of Disaster" is just not a complete fighter: he got knocked out by CB Dollaway and triangle choked by Brian Stann.

Surprising considering that a lesser known fact is that Massenzio, like his hulking Brazilian opponent, has a black belt in BJJ.

Unfortunately for Palhares, most fans know him more for his whack antics than his vicious ground and pound and ridiculous submission skills.

Granted, his confusion after Nate Marquart slipped out of a single-leg attempt and celebrating in the midst of a fight with Dan Miller are not easy to forget.

Oh, and who can forget when he held onto the heel hook well after the referee stopped the fight against Tomasz Drwal.

However, after seeing a sport psychologist, a focused "Toquinho" should be a dangerous one.

The guy is seldom ever hurt on the feet since his takedowns are so tough to stop and once the fight gets to the ground, it seems academic that he is going to get that heel hook sinked in.

Massenzio has heart, but he just hasn't looked the same after knee surgery a couple years ago.

This one goes as you would expect it to.

Rousimar Palhares via second round submission (switches things up with a knee bar)

Jordy McElroy

Don’t worry about hiding your kids and wives, but you should definitely hide your ACLs and MCLs when Rousimar Palhares comes to town.

Mike Massenzio is obviously expected to serve as hors d’oeuvres for the Brazilian submission machine.

A Palhares fight draws many similarities to the most graphic Hollywood horror films. He is incredibly crafty at closing the distance and rolling under opponents for leg locks.

Nearly half of his wins have come by either a heel hook or kneebar.

This isn’t necessarily the best match-up for Massenzio, who tends to rely heavily on his wrestling. On the feet, Palhares isn’t overly efficient, but he boasts a lot of power and a decent skill set.

The only flaw surrounding Palhares’ fight game lies in his questionable conditioning and lack of focus. Massenzio's chances of pulling out an upset will only increase the longer he hangs around in this bout.

Look for Palhares to waste no time in rolling up Massenzio and working for a submission. It’ll be just another day at the office for Palhares as he latches on a heel hook that has Massenzio tapping in the first round.

Rousimar Palhares by Round 1 Submission (Heel Hook)

Dale De Souza

Certain guys come around the pike every now and then with the potential to do great things in their division and possibly even dominate their division.

Mike Massenzio, sponsored by Team Palooka and Palooka.com, is not one of those guys.

Actually, Massenzio is a dark horse in the Middleweight division, and one that was really supposed to be gone from the UFC by now, but then came Steve Cantwell—a fight that Massenzio was not supposed to win legitimately—and that’s how he serves as the last “undercard” bout before the marquee doubleheader for UFC 142.

Now, I could easily project myself as the biggest Massenzio fan in the world, but there’s something preventing me from doing that, and that thing is named Rousimar Palhares.

He’s seen as the master of the leg-lock by most—although there might be a few Japanese Lightweights that disagree—and to Palhares’ credit, he does know 1,001-plus ways to snap a lower extremity, but he’s never faced a wrestler and Jiu-Jitsu specialist like Massenzio, and I doubt the MMA world has put much stock in Massenzio due to the losses he has suffered inside the Octagon.

I would expect something of a grappling exhibition out of this one, but both guys have shown much better striking than what I might have thought they had last year, so don’t anticipate either of them being too hesitant about trading blows.

However, I would also forget about seeing a quick finish in this one, as both men are noted more for their ground skills than anything else, and while this one will be close, the man who gets the win should probably not surprise you when the judges finally have their scorecards.

Winner: Rousimar Palhares by Split Decision (29-28 x2; 29-28 Massenzio)

Brian Lopez-Benchimol

Though he entered the UFC with a collegiate wrestling background, Massenzio has now shown an array of striking skills when he out pointed former WEC champ Steve Cantwell in his last bout.

Despite the strides he's been making, Massenzio won't be able to stop the freight train that is Palhares.

"Toquinho" will stalk Massenzio early, pressuring him with his powerful short hooks before bringing the fight to the canvas where he closes the show with another vicious heel hook.

Palhares defeats Massenzio via Submission (heel hook) in Rd. 1

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Vitor Belfort vs Anthony Johnson

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Dwight Wakabayashi

Brazilian legend Vitor Belfort is hoping to give Anthony Johnson a very rough welcome into his middleweight division this weekend at UFC 142. The fighter with lightning fast hands and power, Belfort will look to send the youngster out with a fast knockout, while Johnson may look to try a more well-rounded approach.

Johnson can wrestle, punch for the fences and kick to send your lights out as well, and I think he will be looking to keep Vitor guessing in the early stages of the fight.

While I don't see this one going to the ground, I also don't see it going very long and one fighter or the other will wilt under the pressure of the better man. In the end I see size, youth and power being too much for the legend, and we could see a brutal finish in this one.

Johnson wins via knockout in 2nd Round

John Heinis

Seeing "The Phenom" look small in comparision is a very rare thing, but "Rumble" looks like an absolute beast in preparation for this fight.

After a year-and-a-half layoff from his 2009 loss to Josh Koscheck, Johnson came back to defeat Dan Hardy and Charlie Brenneman before 2011 came to a close.

Despite climbing the ladder at 170-pounds, Rumble said he couldn't refuse a high-profile fight against Belfort at middleweight.

Personally, I am in the camp that has always found Belfort terribly overrated: Anderson Silva front kicking his lights out at UFC 126 is just one example of that.

There is no shame in getting knocked out by Anderson, but seriously, Belfort has two big wins over a top-10 guy in his career (Wanderlei Silva in '98 and Randy Couture via the dreaded cut TKO in 2004).

Also, let's not forget Couture avenged that loss in definitive fashion, proving Belfort's win was a fluke.

I know Rumble hasn't had one definitive top-10 win yet in his career, but I have no problem picking a much healthier than usual Anthony Johnson over perennial disappoitment Vitor Belfort.

Anthony Johnson via round 3 TKO

Jordy McElroy

Anthony “Rumble” Johnson beefs up and tries his luck at 185-pounds.

Unfortunately, there won’t be any warm-ups in his middleweight debut, as he’ll be looking to topple former UFC light heavyweight champion Vitor Belfort.

Johnson looks like a tank, but he’ll have his hands full in trying to figure out how to deal with Belfort’s world class striking and vastly underrated takedown defense.

Despite his boxing prowess, Belfort has always been a good wrestler. In his prime, it was definitely no picnic for Tito Ortiz in putting Belfort on the ground and keeping him there.

Johnson showcased explosive takedowns and strong top control in his bout against Dan Hardy, but Belfort is on another level in comparison to Hardy’s grappling abilities.

While Johnson may not be able to consistently hang with Belfort in the standup exchanges, he does possess one punch knockout power that has to be respected.

A win here would represent Johnson’s ultimate coming out party as a star in the sport, and likely put him a fight away from a middleweight title shot.

With that said, the loss to Anderson Silva continues to eat away at Belfort, and he isn’t letting anyone stop him from earning a rematch.

Johnson will steal the first round with a successful takedown and top control, but the tide will begin to turn as the hulking Georgia native struggles to keep Belfort on his back.

Belfort will maintain his poise, fight out of tough positions and eventually land the knockout punch that keeps the ball rolling towards another shot at Silva.

Vitor Belfort by Round 2 KO

Dale De Souza

“How will he do at this weight class?”

Every time a guy jumps or drops in weight, we’re left asking that question, but with Anthony Johnson, and especially with the two-fight win streak he’s posted, it’s a question we thought we’d never be asking.

Factor in Rio de Janeiro and Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort, the man who will coach and eventually fight Wanderlei Silva after the end of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, and we’ve got ourselves a fight on our hands that we thought we’d never see.

Belfort knocked out Yoshihiro Akiyama in his last fight, and Johnson knocked out Charlie Brenneman in his last fight, so…how does a knockout appear on a scale of one to “certainly”?

Rest assured, it will happen, and it’s getting the Knockout of The Night bonus because few deliver on knockouts like Johnson and Belfort, but there’s only one problem:

This Saturday, Johnson may be in Vitor’s weight class, but he’s also in Vitor’s yard…and if we had to learn only one thing from UFC 134, it’s that Brazilians don’t play around when it comes to getting a win in their yard.

Winner: Belfort by KO (Punches) before the end of R3.

Brian Lopez-Benchimol

In a tantalizing middleweight affair, Johnson will finally be making his move up to the 185-pound class.

A juggernaut welterweight in his heyday, Johnson often came in overweight thanks to his superior size which rivaled most in the division. Now the heavy hitter can enjoy eating his food whilst comfortably making the weight limit.

Despite the fact that Belfort and Johnson wield real one-punch knockout power, this fight will be contested on the ground, since "Rumble" has shown in recent outings that his collegiate wrestling skills can stifle even the most talented of fighters, Belfort included.

Johnson defeats Belfort by Decision

Jose Aldo vs Chad Mendes

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Dwight Wakabayashi

Is Jose Aldo primed for a fall and is Chad Mendes the man to topple him? I say yes to both those questions simply because there is a feeling in my gut.

Aldo is a fantastically talented fighter but something tells me he will falter under the pressure of headlining a card in his home country. I think he will come out tight in his striking and will need to turn to his wrestling for the win.

Mendes knows wrestling all too well and the relaxed, nothing-to-lose mentality will be the difference in executing his techinques. Mendes is a young veteran who seems focused enough to shock the world on Saturday night, simply by beating Jose Aldo in takedowns.

Mendes wins via unanimous decision.

John Heinis

This one could turn out to be a miniature version of Chael Sonnen vs. Anderson Silva, minus the trash talk and unbridled hatred for one another.

It's not like featherweight champion Jose Aldo needed any advantages in this one, but Saturday marks his first fight in his homeland of Brazil in nearly four-and-a-half years.

Throw in the fact that he capped off his training camp with perennial lightweight contender and former All-American wrestler Gray Maynard, and fans could be in store for the best version of "Scarface" yet.

A former Pac-10 Wrestler of the Year at California Polytechnic State University, it would be remiss to write off the undefeated Chad "Money" Mendes in this one.

Mendes will get his takedowns, but how long will he be able to control Aldo on the ground? The Team Alpha Male fighter isn't completely clueless in the jiu-jitsu department, but the BJJ black belt would seem to have a clear cut advantage on the ground.

Then, if Aldo is able to stuff some takedowns, he will easily pick Mendes apart on his feet. This fight should be close and a lot of fun to watch, but I'm not going to bet against the fighter who is on a 13-fight win streak and is fighting in his home country.

Jose Aldo via unanimous decision (49-46)

Jordy McElroy

Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes kick off the new year by making history in the first ever featherweight championship bout to headline a UFC pay-per-view.

Hardcore fans have been waiting on this fight for quite some time. Mendes, who is undefeated in his professional career, should present an interesting test for Aldo, who is coming off a UFC 136 routing of Kenny Florian.

Mendes is a decent striker with world class wrestling and suffocating top control. Some have written him off as merely a shadow of former featherweight champion Urijah Faber, but Mendes’ skill set runs deeper than that.

Similar to Jon Fitch, Mendes is a grinder, and he won’t be deterred from sticking with his strengths.

Against Mark Hominick at UFC 129, Aldo showcased explosive takedowns and good top control, but we still haven’t seen much from the Brazilian as far as takedown defense is concerned.

Cardio could also be a concern for the champion. He was running on fumes in his surprisingly tough bout against Hominick. Mendes is known for maintaining a high pace over the course of a fight. If Aldo breaks down this time around, the Team Alpha Male member won’t be as forgiving.

This is a tough bout to call based on the question marks around Aldo’s overall fight game. With that said, there are also question marks surrounding Mendes. What if he can’t get the takedown? Does he have the striking to mix things with Aldo?

The chances of an upset are just too good not to take a shot on.

Look for Mendes to battle through a couple of scary moments and utilize his superior wrestling to ride out top control and take a close unanimous decision.

Chad Mendes by Unanimous Decision

Dale De Souza

On paper, this is supposed to be the fight that destroys all hope of a Jose Aldo-Hatsu Hioki title fight before the end of 2013, tops, but in reality, is it?

Chad Mendes can claim that his bout with the UFC Featherweight Champion is likely to be a similar bout to the WEC 48 bout between Aldo and Urijah Faber, save for the part where Aldo wins, but the reality is that Chad Mendes is not presenting the exact same problems that Faber posed to Aldo.

We all know Aldo has crazy striking and, like most of Andre Pederneiras’ Nova Uniao-bred monsters of Muay Thai and Jiu-Jitsu, he has some rather menacing movement that will make almost any fighter consider just sloppily shooting in for a takedown.

Mendes, on the other hand, has three ways to win—either he’s taking Aldo down for five rounds and smothering him, grounding-and-eventually-pounding his way to a win, or using his strength to crush his way to a submission win.

Either way, Mendes will have to answer some questions about his striking if Aldo can fend off the takedowns, and Mendes will definitely have to prove he can go an extra ten minutes.

This is the first time Mendes has ever had to go five rounds; Aldo has done it three times, and if Mendes is banking on a first-round finish against a speed-demon like Aldo, he’s heading back to Sacramento a disappointed man.

Winner: Jose Aldo by Round 5 KO (Flying Knee)

Brian Lopez-Benchimol

In the first ever featherweight affair to headline a UFC event, Aldo will be returning to his native Brazil to defend his title against arguably his toughest test to date in Mendes.

One of the better wrestlers to enter the sport, Mendes has shown that his power double is virtually unstoppable, as fighters such as Michihiro Omigawa, Cub Swanson and Erik Koch can lay credence too.

However, what Aldo does possess is much improved takedown defense and devastating knees, which Mendes will get a taste of come Saturday night.

Aldo defeats Mendes by TKO (knee and punches) in Rd. 3