NFL Playoff Picks 2012: Tom Brady's Patriots Will Overwhelm Tim Tebow's Broncos

It's hard to exaggerate just how great Tim Tebow was against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. He entered the game with his starting job hanging by a thread, and he proceeded to throw for over 300 yards while leading his Denver Broncos to the unlikeliest of upsets.

After disappearing for the final three games of the regular season, Tebow seems to have resumed his mission from God to prove all of his doubters wrong. And I'll be damned if it isn't hard to root for him.

But now is as good a time as any for a reality check: Beating the Steelers was step one of four, and it was by far the easiest. If the Broncos are going to make it to the Super Bowl, they need Tebow's luck (or whatever you want to call it) to hold.

Against the New England Patriots in the divisional round, it's going to run out.

The early spread for this matchup suggests as much. Per Sportsbook, the Patriots are favored to win by 13.5 points, making the Broncos a big underdog for a second week in a row.

That would seem to bode well for them, but it really doesn't. 

Against the Steelers, the Broncos had the benefit of going up against a team playing with several wounded players and missing a few other key players.

The absence of Ryan Clark leveled the playing field quite a bit, as did the absence of Rashard Mendenhall. Ben Roethlisberger's wounded ankle leveled it even more.

Last I checked, the Patriots are pretty healthy. They will have had an extra week of rest by the time kickoff rolls around, to boot.

That's not the only reason why you have to like the Patriots to win this game, though. They have a major edge in this matchup because of what they can do on offense. They led the AFC in scoring during the regular season, and Tom Brady had his most productive season since 2007.

Denver's defense wasn't much of a challenge for New England's offense back in Week 15. Brady threw for 320 yards and the Pats racked up 451 total yards. Keep in mind that this was in Denver, where the Broncos are much better.

On the road, the Broncos proved to be much more human. It just so happens that the Patriots are practically unbeatable at home. 

The only way the Broncos are going to do the impossible is if they play a perfect game. That would entail their defense holding Brady to decent passing numbers while their offense keeps drives alive and makes the most of scoring opportunities.

In order for that to happen, they're going to need Tebow to play as well as he did against the Steelers. In fact, they're going to need him to be even better. Against the Pats, the Broncos are going to need as many points as they can get.

Conventional wisdom suggests that Tebow could indeed play well against the Patriots, who had the league's No. 31 passing defense during the regular season.

One thing the Pats did do well, however, is take the football away. They finished tied for second in the league with 23 interceptions. One or two of those will make a huge difference on Saturday.

Since Tebow is still inaccurate with the majority of his throws, I would be on the Pats getting one or two picks.

So for the life of me, I just can't see it happening for Tebow and the Broncos again. It's simply too hard to rely on Tebow, and it's even harder to rely on Denver's defense to play well on the road against New England's über-dangerous offense.

I'll take the Pats to win this one easily. I'm willing to bet at least 30 pieces of silver on it.

Patriots 31, Broncos 16