The Most Surprising Men's College Basketball Conference Contenders in 2025
If there's one thing we can count on every season in men's college basketball, it's that at least one team will get picked to finish bottom-three in its conference, only to use that as the bulletin-board material necessary to win the league.
For each of the 31 conferences in D-I men's college basketball, we went back and looked at the respective preseason media polls to see if any of the current contenders to win the regular-season title came completely out of left field. For good measure, we're also including where each team was projected in the preseason KenPom ratings.
From the major conferences, no major shockers like that this year. Save for the SEC, though, they all have a viable champion right now who was supposed to finish in the middle of the pack.
From the mid-majors, though, a couple of real stunners, the biggest of which is probably the team perched at the summit of the Summit League.
Teams are presented in alphabetical order of their conference, beginning in the A-10 with the team hoping to channel some of that 2006 Final Four magic once more.
Statistics and records/standings current through the start of play Thursday, Feb. 6.
George Mason Patriots (A-10)
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Preseason Media Poll Placement: 6th out of 15 teams
KenPom Preseason Projection: 5th in A-10
We begin this exercise not with a massive stunner, but a moderate surprise.
On the heels of consecutive 20-win seasons, George Mason was expected to be respectable, despite getting plundered by the transfer portal, per usual. Keyshawn Hall transferred to UCF, where he has been one of the top scorers in the Big 12. The Patriots also lost Ronald Polite III to UNC Greensboro and Baraka Okojie to Memphis.
They did a fair amount of pilfering of their own, though, with Jalen Haynes, Brayden O'Connor and Giovanni Emejuru combining for around 30 points per game in their first year in the program.
Auburn transfer KD Johnson has also been a major addition on the other end of the floor, which is where George Mason has been making its hay this season.
Save for the early 82-63 loss at Marquette—which was way closer than the final margin indicates, prior to the Golden Eagles finishing the game on a 21-4 run—the Patriots have not allowed a single opponent to score more than 70 points in regulation. They even played at Duke and lost that game by 21, but the 68-47 final score was easily one of Duke's most frustrated offensive performances of the season.
Following the 53-50 win at George Washington on Wednesday, GMU ranks top-10 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, which they've parlayed into a 9-1 record and a one-game lead in the A-10 standings.
They do still need to play at VCU, which is the team one game behind them. But while the Rams have two games left against Dayton, Mason already won its lone game against the Flyers.
If it continues to defend at a high level, there's a good chance George Mason will at least tie for the regular-season title, if not win it outright.
Louisville Cardinals (ACC)
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Preseason Media Poll Placement: 9th out of 18 teams
KenPom Preseason Projection: 8th in ACC
At two games behind Duke and having already lost the only regular-season game it will get against the Blue Devils, Louisville is probably a "conference contender" in name only, as it's very difficult to imagine Duke losing multiple conference games the rest of the way.
But at 10-2 with only one game remaining against a KenPom top 80 foe (vs. Pitt on March 1), there's a real chance Louisville is going to finish 18-2 and the first runner-up to what might be the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament.
Given where the Cardinals had been in recent seasons, we're pretty sure they'll take that.
Between the two disastrous years under Kenny Payne and the final season with Chris Mack at the helm, Louisville had gone 25-71 overall; 11-49 in the ACC since the beginning of 2021. And in year No. 1 under Pat Kelsey, they might finish the regular season at 25-6.
Of course, we should have known Kelsey doesn't do losing seasons. Save for his first year as a head coach at Winthrop in 2012-13, he had posted a winning record in every season, including taking Charleston from a 9-10 record the year before he landed there to a 31-4 record in his second season at the helm.
And his M.O. hasn't changed. His teams have always fired up a ton of threes, and both at Winthrop and at Charleston, he consistently had one of the best rebounding margins in the nation over the past half-decade.
Except now he's doing it with guys who are good enough to play at Louisville, getting Chucky Hepburn from Wisconsin, J'Vonne Hadley from Colorado and a bunch of up-transfer all-stars, including two he brought with him from Charleston.
Save for a blip at Georgia Tech last weekend, the Cardinals have been sensational, winning 10 in a row (eight by double digits) prior to that misstep.
They're unlikely to win the ACC, but definitely a contender to reach the second weekend of the Dance, for what would be the first time since 2015.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (Big 12)
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Preseason Media Poll Placement: 7th out of 16 teams
KenPom Preseason Projection: 6th in B12
The element of surprise here isn't that Texas Tech is good.
That was supposed to happen.
The Red Raiders were 14th on KenPom in the preseason and didn't miss landing in the initial AP Top 25 by much. Their current Bracket Matrix projection as a low No. 4 seed wouldn't have felt in any way far-fetched three months ago.
What is surprising, though, is that Texas Tech is just one game back in a Big 12 that had five teams ranked in the preseason AP Top 10—and that the Red Raiders have gone 3-1 thus far against those teams, winning at Houston, winning home games against Arizona and Baylor and losing by one in overtime to Iowa State.
As a matter of fact, that makes 9-2 Texas Tech responsible for the only losses suffered by the two teams tied atop the league at 10-1 (Arizona and Houston).
New Mexico transfer JT Toppin has been stupendous in the paint. He's one of three players averaging around 15 points per game for what is easily the most offensively proficient Red Raiders team in decades.
They've also been considerably better on defense than they were last season. They're not quite "Chris Beard Texas Tech" on defense, but they're good enough to rank top-10 in the nation in overall adjusted efficiency.
In double-edged sword news, they still have a second game remaining against both Houston and Arizona, which means they control their own destiny. Win out and they would secure the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 tournament.
It's highly unlikely they'll do that. Chances are they'll lose at Arizona on Saturday. They also have a road game remaining against Kansas, which might be the toughest contest left on their schedule. But they have been just about the best team in the nation since the calendar flipped to 2025, so never say never.
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Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten)
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Preseason Media Poll Placement: 9th out of 18 teams
KenPom Preseason Projection: 8th in B1G
As with Texas Tech, it's not some massive surprise that Michigan has been good. Both on KenPom and in the preseason AP poll, it was rated/ranked in the mid-30s, smack dab in the middle of a huge Big Ten cluster: UCLA, Oregon, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State, Michigan, Maryland and Indiana were all in the 28-39 range on KenPom as the supposed 3rd through 10th best teams in the league.
Unavoidably, two of those teams needed to actually be picked to finish 9th or worse in the conference, but for the Wolverines to be projected for the middle of the pack looks a little silly in hindsight.
Michigan is 9-2 in league play at the moment, half a game behind Purdue, tied with Michigan State, four games clear of ninth place. Had the Wolverines not suffered that slightly inexplicable overtime loss at Minnesota, they'd be alone in first place right now.
And they're doing it on the strength of a rarely seen dynamic duo of seven-footers.
Having two back-to-the-basket giants playing together wasn't all that uncommon a decade ago. Heck, twin towers in the post leading to dominance in the rebounding and blocks department was Roy Williams' M.O. for most of his career at Kansas and North Carolina.
Two seven-footers who can stretch the floor with their shooting and their ball screen action, however, is a brave new world, with new Michigan head coach Dusty May letting Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin lead the way.
Few teams are equipped to deal with what Michigan is running, to the point where its losses all seem to be self-inflicted in the form of turnovers or the occasional atrocious night of perimeter shooting.
This team might win the Big Ten outright, and it will be a tough out in the NCAA tournament.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks (C-USA)
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Preseason Media Poll Placement: 8th out of 10 teams
KenPom Preseason Projection: 8th in C-USA
After that run on major conference teams, let's get back into the teams who are unexpectedly in pole position for a double-digit seed as the projected champions of smaller leagues.
Jacksonville State wasn't even supposed to be a top-200 team this season. The Gamecocks finished exactly 200th last year, but they lost leading scorer Kyky Tandy as a transfer to Florida Atlantic. Second and third leading scorers Juwan Perdue and Quincy Clark are also no longer on the roster, the former running out of eligibility while the latter transferred to UMass Lowell.
As a result, they were expected to be even worse this year, with KenPom slotting them at No. 219 in the preseason.
But let's talk about Jaron Pierre Jr., who has been quietly one of the best transfer pickups in the entire country, and who just put up a career-best 36 points in Thursday's win over Middle Tennessee.
Pierre averaged 10.6 PPG in 2022-23 at Wichita State before redshirting last season. He resurfaced at Jacksonville State as an excellent lead guard, averaging 21 points, five rebounds and four assists per game.
He has been for JSU what Javon Small has been for West Virginia, just with nowhere near the national attention.
Pierre is top-five in the nation in scoring average, although he hasn't needed to do as much heavy lifting as of late with a younger teammate rising to prominence.
After missing all of November and finding his footing throughout December, freshman Quel'Ron House has become one heck of a running mate in that backcourt, averaging 11.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.3 APG and 1.6 SPG since becoming a starter on Jan. 9—during which time the Gamecocks have gone 7-1.
That includes an 11-point victory over Liberty last weekend, which is still C-USA's best team as far as the predictive metrics are concerned.
If they do secure the auto bid, this could be a dangerous No. 13 or No. 14 seed.
Cleveland State Vikings (Horizon)
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Preseason Media Poll Placement: 7th out of 11 teams
KenPom Preseason Projection: 5th in Horizon
Two months ago, the thought of Cleveland State running away with a Horizon League regular-season title would have been ludicrous.
After opening the season ranked 183rd on KenPom, the Vikings started out 4-6 and had fallen to 255th. They were annihilated by Michigan (101-53) on opening night and lost five of their first 10 games by double digits. They also suffered a two-point home loss to Morehead State, which is a Quad 4 disaster to this day.
Then, out of nowhere, they reeled off 13 consecutive wins, including a recent 10-point road win over Purdue Fort Wayne, which is the second-best team in the Horizon League.
Even after that winning streak was snapped by a not-great loss at Northern Kentucky on Wednesday, Cleveland State still holds a 1.5-game lead in the standings and is 100 spots better on KenPom than it was on Dec. 6.
Perhaps most incredible about the winning streak is that Cleveland State basketball this season borders on chaos. Lots of turnovers on both ends of the floor, as well as tons of offensive rebounds on both ends.
But after shooting 23.6 percent from three-point range through their first 10 games, the Vikings are up to just a shade under 40 percent in their last 14 games. Combine that with their relentless ball pressure, and they have been a freight train in Horizon League play.
If they're able to win the home game against Milwaukee on Saturday, it becomes very likely they will at least secure a share of a regular-season title. And with a 3-3 record all-time in the NCAA tournament, no one is going to want to draw this team.
Omaha Mavericks (Summit League)
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Preseason Media Poll Placement: 8th out of 9 teams
KenPom Preseason Projection: 9th in Summit League
This one is the biggest surprise of them all.
Prior to transferring to Michigan State, Frankie Fidler was one of the most prolific scorers in the country at Omaha, averaging 20.1 points per game in 2023-24. Even so, the Mavericks went 15-18 overall, finished two games below .500 in the Summit League and needed to adjust to life without Fidler, Nick Davis or Jaeden Marshall.
Not only did KenPom project them for dead-last in the Summit League, but they were also rated 319th overall—10 spots behind Green Bay, which Doug Gottlieb has turned into an outright disaster.
When they started out 4-9 with only one win over a team currently rated better than 340th on KenPom, that 319 ranking looked about right; maybe even a little generous. Close road losses to Minnesota and Akron were the most impressive things Omaha did in nonconference play.
Since mid-December, though, the Mavericks have been just about unstoppable, winning 10 of 11 games and surging into a tie with ineligible-for-the-NCAA-tournament St. Thomas for first place in the Summit League.
What changed?
Quite simply, shots started falling.
Points allowed has remained pretty static, but after Omaha averaged 68.1 points through its first 13 games, it has enjoyed a 24 percent increase to 84.5 PPG since then, scoring at least 77 in each contest.
In particular, JJ White started making shots, nearly doubling his scoring average from 8.9 PPG during the 4-9 start to 16.7 PPG over the past seven weeks. Leading scorer Marquel Sutton also kicked it up a notch from 15.2 PPG to 20.5 as of late.
Granted, the Summit League has never been renowned for its defensive intensity. If the Mavericks were to play Iowa State again, a repeat of that 83-51 beatdown wouldn't be surprising in the least. But they are making the most of the league they are in and could be headed for both their first Summit League regular-season title and their first trip to the NCAA tournament.
5 Honorable Mentions
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St. John's Red Storm (Picked 5th in Big East)
Much like Texas Tech, St. John's has been, at best, slightly better than the very good it was supposed to be, rated top-20 on KenPom to begin the season. The surprise in the Big East is more so that the four teams picked ahead of the Red Storm—Connecticut, Creighton, Xavier and Marquette—haven't held up their end of the bargain, particularly UConn and Xavier.
The 11-1 Johnnies do still have two games left against UConn, plus road games against Marquette and Villanova and a home rematch with the Creighton team that handed them their lone loss in league play. But they appear to be well on their way to at least a share of a Big East regular-season title for what would be the first time since 1992.
Drake Bulldogs (Picked 5th in Missouri Valley)
Can't fault anyone for expecting Drake to lose a step or two after losing its head coach and all six of its leading scorers (five of them to the transfer portal). But put Ben McCollum firmly in the running for National Coach of the Year for having the Bulldogs at 21-2 with quality wins over Vanderbilt and Kansas State, despite a roster in which the four leading scorers transferred in from either D-II or JUCO.
Utah State Aggies (Picked 6th in Mountain West)
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool us repeatedly by losing your head coach and most of your roster on an annual basis only to keep contending for a Mountain West title, shame on all of us for doubting the Aggies. The recent home loss to New Mexico put Utah State one game behind the Lobos for first place, but USU is still right there and in good shape for an at-large bid, if necessary.
Missouri Tigers (Picked 13th in SEC)
At three games behind Auburn, Missouri isn't really a contender to win the SEC. All the same, who foresaw the Tigers sitting at 6-3 in what might be the greatest conference ever assembled? They won at Florida, they put up one heck of a fight at Tennessee and they pulled off a home nonconference upset of then AP No. 1 Kansas, which doesn't even look like an upset anymore.
Utah Valley Wolverines (Picked 5th in WAC)
The WAC still runs through Grand Canyon, but both GCU and UVU have one league loss, each winning a home game against the other. The Wolverines are one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the nation, but they've won road games against both Seattle and Cal Baptist in spite of it and should be favored in every game left on their regular-season slate.
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