Federer and Nadal Leave Doubts in Doha, Murray Provides Interest

It's barely been a fortnight into the 2012 season, but certain tiny trends seem discernible for the upcoming first major of the year at the Australian Open in Melbourne.

For one thing, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga proved to us that his late-season surge at the end of last year was no fluke, and that he would have been, as he put it at the World Tour Finals, the winner of several tournaments at the point had it not been for a certain Mr. Federer. The Swiss accounted for two of the Frenchman's finals losses, but this time, was absent at Doha.

Tsonga certainly had a slightly easier time than his compatriot final opponent, Gael Monfils (more about him shortly), because that very Mr. Federer withdrew from the tournament, citing a back injury just hours from his semifinal clash with him.

How serious is this back injury? One suspects it has nagged him intermittently over the course of his career, and likely in the last few years, and we only find out when it affects him mid-tournament in a big way. Remember, he did have similar issues in 2009, and found himself a set away from victory in the final at the Australian Open. If anything, his rest between now and Melbourne is likely to be more inspiring than a tough win in the final at Doha, only to crash out early when it really counts in two weeks.

Doha was supposed to be the story of Federer and Nadal opening up 2012, and we all anticipated a final clash between the two. Nadal could well have made true his end of the deal, and one feels maybe felt slightly piqued by his rival's withdrawal, because he looked positively downbeat against Monfils in the semifinal, almost as if he felt that it would have been better to go down with Federer than win the tournament over anyone else.

Has the Spaniard shrugged off the disappointments of 2011? Maybe that isn't the right question because its probably too early to tell. But losing to people like Monfils suggests two things: one, that they may plague him mentally in the coming weeks, and two, that he is approaching that stage in his career when his aura of invincibility is beginning to wear off.

On the other hand, Andy Murray made a firm statement of intent in clinching the title in Brisbane with a win over Dolgopolov in the final. He had hired Ivan Lendl just last week, and there are fewer best ways to cement any new coach-player relationship than with a win right off the blocks. Winning a pre-Australian Open warmup event doesn't historically mean much for a player's hopes at Melbourne, but it will certainly help with the confidence, and Murray right now needs that above all.

Will he break the British slam drought, which dates to 1936? Its a conversation thats been going on for four years now, and this, the 86th year of its circulation, may be its most interesting yet.