Rōki Sasaki Evaluated by MLB Execs, Scouts After Dodgers Contract in Free Agency

Now that Rōki Sasaki has officially made his decision to sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the focus can turn to what he will bring to the table for the reigning World Series champions.

Fans in North America have had some exposure to Sasaki's skill set when he played for Japan in the 2023 World Baseball Classic.

While the hype around Sasaki is off the charts and deserved, scouts and executives around MLB who spoke to ESPN's Alden Gonzalez do caution that it will take time for him to reach his full potential.

The fastball, in particular, has been a question mark for Sasaki as he prepares to go up against MLB hitters. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo noted his heater averaged 96.8 mph in 2024, which would have ranked third among all big-league pitchers, but it was also a drop of two miles per hour from the previous season.

Scouts and executives told Gonzalez some of the dip could be attributed to shoulder fatigue Sasaki had at one point last season, but the shape of the pitch raises some red flags because it is described as "flat."

Radar-gun readings are fun when you see triple-digits pop up, but there's a reason that pitchers who don't have good movement on the pitch can get hit around.

Carlos Rodón ranked 15th among all qualified starters in average fastball velocity last season (95.4 mph), but opponents hit .262 and slugged .514 against the pitch. There was a time when his heater was regarded as the most valuable pitch in all of MLB.

While there are some concerns about Sasaki's fastball early in his career, the one thing everyone agreed on was that his splitter is going to play right away.

Gonzalez noted one scout described the pitch as "f--king nasty," with evaluators frequently giving it an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. For perspective, Juan Soto is an 80-grade hitter; Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have 80-grade power.

"It might be the best secondary pitch in the world," an executive told Gonzalez about Sasaki's splitter. This is where the fastball really comes into play because if he can get ahead of opposing hitters with the old number one, good luck trying to protect with two strikes when he drops the splitter.

James Dykstra, who played with Sasaki on the Chiba Lotte Marines last season, called his splitter the "national pitch" while speaking to Mayo.

"I stood behind the catcher in his bullpen early in Spring Training and said 'Oh my!'" Dykstra said. "I knew how good it was in the World Baseball Classic and it even exceeded my expectations. It's probably one of the best splitters I've ever seen."

One big reason the Dodgers are a good fit for Sasaki is because of the depth they have in the rotation. This is by design because general manager Brandon Gomes said in November their plan for 2025 was to have a six-man rotation.

They currently have Sasaki, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May projected to be in the opening day rotation. That doesn't include Ohtani, who won't be ready to pitch at the start of the season. Clayton Kershaw has also said he's playing in 2025, and there's nothing to suggest it won't be for the Dodgers.

One scout explained to Gonzalez that Sasaki needs to be in a situation early in his MLB career that will allow him to build up his workload.

"That's been one constant throughout his career—as good as he's been, as much as he's looked like one of the best pitchers in the world, he has not handled a workload we're accustomed to seeing from major league starters," the scout said.

Sasaki didn't throw more than 129.1 innings in any of his four seasons with the Chiba Lotte Marines.

As long as Sasaki can weather some initial growing pains because the quality of hitting he will be facing in MLB is going to be better than it was in NPB, there's nothing to suggest he won't develop into a frontline starter very soon.

Considering Sasaki is only six months older than 2024 NL Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes, he's got plenty of time to reach his ceiling.