Blue Jays' Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Landing Spots, Trade Packages Amid MLB Trade Rumors
The Toronto Blue Jays aren't actually going to trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr., are they?
This is likely a correct supposition, but at least one team has called about Guerrero this winter. That is the New York Mets, according to SNY's Andy Martino, though he clarified that it was merely a case of the Mets "checking in" on the four-time All-Star first baseman.
Whatever the case, it may not be a coincidence that this information is coming out now.
As Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported on Wednesday, the Mets have been pressuring Pete Alonso to make a decision on his free-agent destination soon in case they must pivot to other options. Per Martino, the team now considers Alonso signing elsewhere to be the "most likely outcome."
If so, the 25-year-old Guerrero is hypothetically among the Plan Bs the Mets could consider at the cold corner.
Ahead, we'll get into why him being traded is an idea worth taking seriously before speculating on possible trade destinations and packages.
What Are the Chances the Blue Jays Trade Guerrero?
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In theory if nothing else, now is a good time for the Blue Jays to sell high on Guerrero.
After a down year in 2023, last season saw him get back to being a fearsome slugger. He finished with a .940 OPS and 30 home runs, marking his third 30-homer season in four years.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are coming off a last-place finish in the American League East and facing an uncertain future. Guerrero's fate is a big aspect of the latter, as he's due to make $28.5 million in what will be his last season before free agency.
In an interesting twist of fate, Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Thursday that the Blue Jays are one of the teams in on Alonso. And that if they do sign him, the idea would be for him and Guerrero to team up.
This is indeed an "if" for now, though, and there's also the matter of how long Guerrero will stick around in Toronto.
He's been unimpressed with previous extension offers and the clock is ticking down to his February 17 deadline for a deal. And according to Sammon and Rosenthal, extension talks between Guerrero and the Blue Jays have been paused since before Christmas.
It's possible to imagine a triple-whammy that causes the Blue Jays to open themselves up to offers for Guerrero. One, they whiff on Alonso. Two, they also miss out on Rōki Sasaki. And three, Guerrero's deadline passes with no new deal.
Baseball Trade Values puts Guerrero's surplus value on top of his 2025 salary at $21.2 million. It's an ample number for just one year of control, which reflects Guerrero's worthiness of legit major league or prospect talent.
So without further delay—and the strongest possible warning that we're just spitballing—let's put our imaginations to work and come up with landing spots and packages for Guerrero.
Note: All farm system and prospect rankings are according to B/R's Joel Reuter.
Long Shots Worth Mentioning
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Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-backs probably can't afford to take on Guerrero's $28.5 million salary. But since they have a tall hill to climb in the National League West and an opening at designated hitter, let's agree never to say never on them.
Baltimore Orioles
If Guerrero is going to go elsewhere in the AL East, it probably won't be to the Orioles. But they could use a right-handed bat, and preferably one with power to fill the 44-homer hole left by Anthony Santander's free agency.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have already made a move for a free-agent-to-be superstar. Two is probably too many. Their lineup nonetheless still feels a bat short, and Guerrero would elevate them from a mere NL Central contender to a World Series contender.
Detroit Tigers
True, the Tigers are a little early in their contention timeline to be trading for rental stars. They do have the prospects for it, however, and the righty-hitting Guerrero would certainly balance out a lineup that leans left-handed.
Kansas City Royals
Like the Tigers, the Royals are too early in their contention timeline to do a deal like this. But if any star in MLB needs more support, it's Bobby Witt Jr. He's a great hitter who is unfortunately surrounded by middling or downright bad ones.
San Diego Padres
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Trade Proposal: San Diego Padres get 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.; Toronto Blue Jays get 2B/1B Jake Cronenworth, LHP Yuki Matsui, SS Leodalis De Vries (Padres No. 1, MLB No. 25)
Why It Works for the Padres
Honestly? This is a stretch.
As they'd be taking on $28.5 million and only shedding $17 million in AAV for Cronenworth's and Matsui's deals, this trade would push the Padres further over the $241 million luxury tax threshold. They almost certainly don't want to go there, much less send De Vries packing.
But here are two things about the Padres: General manager A.J. Preller loves to make blockbuster deals and one of those is sorely needed right now.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have only gotten better this winter, whereas the Padres have yet to do anything of note. Adding Guerrero would certainly change that, and such a drastic move will be that much more necessary if San Diego also whiffs on Sasaki.
Why It Works for the Blue Jays
This deal would be costly for Toronto. Whereas they're only on the hook to pay Guerrero $28.5 million, Cronenworth and Matsui would come with $90.5 million still owed to them.
It is nonetheless worth noting that Cronenworth was on Toronto's radar last winter. He could instantly take Guerrero's place at first base and, at the least, bring balance to a lineup that leans right-handed.
Yet the real prize here, of course, would be De Vries.
Though he's just 18 with one minor league season under his belt, he's a switch-hitter who projects as a five-tool shortstop. He'd be a crown jewel that the Blue Jays presently lack in their farm system.
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San Francisco Giants
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Trade Proposal: San Francisco Giants get 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.; Toronto Blue Jays get RHP Camilo Doval, INF Marco Luciano, OF James Tibbs III (Giants No. 2)
Why It Works for the Giants
Though one wonders if they're the mystery team on Alonso that Sammon and Rosenthal alluded to, it's hard to imagine the Giants actually signing a slugger.
They've tried. And tried and tried. On Bryce Harper. On Aaron Judge. On Shohei Ohtani. Since all of them ultimately said "no thanks," the trade market feels like the Giants' only hope of adding a top-tier home run hitter.
Hence Guerrero, and it wouldn't necessarily have to be a one-year arrangement. The Giants have been in a spending mood recently, committing $333 million just to Matt Chapman and Willy Adames in recent months. They could conceivably make Guerrero an extension target.
Otherwise, this deal would have the benefit of not including Bryce Eldridge. He's the Giants' best prospect, and they've reportedly been unwilling to part with him.
Why It Works for the Blue Jays
This isn't a perfect deal for Toronto, but the club would be betting on legitimate upside.
Though Doval flamed out as the Giants' closer in 2024, he was an All-Star in 2023 and he's still only 27. And besides, who doesn't like a guy with a 99 mph cutter?
The 23-year-old Luciano also damaged his stock with a rough '24 season, but he was universally considered a top-100 prospect heading into last year. There's still time for him to realize his potential as a power-hitting middle infielder.
Rounding out this package is Tibbs, who the Giants chose at No. 13 in the 2024 draft. The 22-year-old may have a future as a .300-hitting outfielder with power.
Seattle Mariners
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Trade Proposal: Seattle Mariners get 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.; Toronto Blue Jays get C Harry Ford (Mariners No. 3, MLB No. 55), 1B Tyler Locklear
Why It Works for the Mariners
Of all the would-be contenders in MLB, none needs an impact bat as badly as the Mariners.
They had the best pitching staff in baseball last year, yet only made it to 85 wins in large part because their offense was a near-constant bummer. It finished below the league average in scoring 4.2 runs per game and led MLB with 1,625 strikeouts.
Guerrero is about the best possible fix that the Mariners can hope for. Beyond merely being one of MLB's leading sluggers, he's coming off a career-low strikeout rate of 13.8 percent.
This trade would add $28.5 million to the Mariners' payroll and subtract one of their best prospects. But on the latter front, at least, they're as well-stocked as they come.
Why It Works for the Blue Jays
In Locklear, Toronto would get a guy who could step right into Guerrero's shoes at first base.
The 24-year-old didn't do much with the 16 games he played with the Mariners in 2024, but he's been productive in the minors to the tune of a .874 OPS. He was notably productive in the high minors last year, putting up a .850 OPS at Double-A and Triple-A.
As for Ford, he's one of the best catching prospects in baseball for a reason.
Actually, several reasons. As his 85 stolen bases in four minor league seasons can attest, he's a good athlete for a backstop. As he also has power potential and a strong arm, the 21-year-old projects as an uncommonly well-rounded catcher.
Boston Red Sox
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Trade Proposal: Boston Red Sox get 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.; Toronto Blue Jays get SS Franklin Arias (Red Sox No. 4, MLB No. 90), RHP Luis Perales (Red Sox No. 5)
Why It Works for the Red Sox
You know who else thinks Guerrero would make a good Red Sox? The Red Sox, according to Heyman:
To be clear, Heyman was talking about Guerrero as a free-agent fit for Boston on next winter's market. But if they really like him that much, there's at least on-paper sense in them expediting a long-term partnership via a trade and extension.
The team should have the money for it, and Guerrero probably wouldn't need to be sold on Fenway Park. He has a 1.054 OPS there, compared to a .823 OPS at the Rogers Centre.
As fun as it is to imagine a Guerrero-for-Triston Casas swap, the two players have mismatched trade values. It's also hard to fathom the Red Sox being OK with sending such a dangerous young hitter to a division rival.
Why It Works for the Blue Jays
If not Casas, the best the Blue Jays could do in a trade with Boston is some combination of Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell.
The return we're talking about here would therefore be underwhelming, albeit one with a decent chance of paying off.
The 19-year-old Arias, in particular, has legitimate upside. Even if he never hits for much power, he profiles as a slick-fielding shortstop with a reliable stick.
Though Perales, 21, is recovering from Tommy John surgery, it says a lot that he's still one of the five best prospects in a strong Red Sox system. He has a plus-plus fastball that could make him an ace reliever if he fails to develop as a starter.
New York Mets
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Trade Proposal: New York Mets get 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr,; Toronto Blue Jays get RHP Brandon Sproat (Mets No. 1, MLB No. 38)
Why It Works for the Mets
Regarding the Mets checking in on Guerrero, there's naturally the question of whether that was legitimate interest or meant to pressure Alonso.
Either way, it wouldn't hurt the Mets to check in again if Alonso ends up neither with them nor the Blue Jays.
Going from Alonso to Guerrero is about as round peg-for-round hole as it gets, though you could argue it would be a substantial upgrade for the Mets. Save for home runs and runs batted in, Guerrero has Alonso beat in every key category since 2021.
Is one year of Guerrero worth sacrificing the team's best prospect? Since it would mean joining Guerrero with Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor to form a trio that could compete with the one in Los Angeles, the vote here is obviously yes.
Why It Works for the Blue Jays
Again, this concept only works if the Blue Jays aren't able to get Alonso for themselves. And truth be told, that does feel like a realistic outcome.
But if it doesn't, well, this would just plain be a fun trade.
In exchange for one year of Guerreo, the Blue Jays would get at least six years of Sproat. The 24-year-old has risen fast since the Mets chose him in the second round in 2023. With three plus pitches in his fastball, slider and changeup, he profiles as a potential No. 2 starter.
That should pique Toronto's interest. Because with Chris Bassitt's contract expiring after this year and Kevin Gausman only signed through 2026, they are going to need pitching soon.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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