Bleacher Report's Expert Divisional Playoff NFL Picks
Even with mostly lopsided outcomes on an NFL slate, you can still make extra cash, and that's what our expert panel did last week.
Bleacher Report analysts Brad Gagnon, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton, along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford and Vince Michelino from B/R Betting had a strong start to the playoffs, going 4-1 on their consensus picks for Super Wild Card Weekend.
O'Donnell cashed in on the Houston Texans lone-wolf pick. The crew nailed their underdog selections: Washington Commanders (+3.5) and Los Angeles Rams (+2.5).
Is the panel going to roll with the Commanders and Rams against the spread again in the divisional round?
Interestingly, three divisional-round matchups are rematches from the regular season. So, our experts are weighing what they saw in the first games between these teams and the difference in circumstances for the upcoming matchups.
Two panelists took each game, agreeing on a couple of matchups and providing dueling analyses for the other two.
Check out the playoff standings and the breakdowns below.
ATS Playoff Standings
T-1. Gagnon: 5-1
T-1. Hanford: 5-1
T-3. Moton: 4-2
T-3. Sobleski: 4-2
T-5. Davenport: 3-3
T-5. Knox: 3-3
T-5. O'Donnell: 3-3
8. Michelino: 2-4
Consensus picks: 4-1
Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Jan. 15, at 4 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
Houston Texans (10-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
1 of 4
DraftKings Line: Kansas City -8.5
Last week, the Houston Texans outplayed the Los Angeles Chargers for three quarters. As home underdogs, they pulled away with a 32-12 victory.
Looking at running back Joe Mixon's Instagram Live post after that game, the Texans embraced the underdog role, and they can carry that mentality into this contest with the Kansas City Chiefs favored by 8.5.
For most of the regular season, the Chiefs won by slim margins against formidable and bottom-tier teams. However, they covered the spread in their last three wins, one of which was against the Texans, who were three-point underdogs.
With Kansas City's starters coming off more than three weeks rest, Sobleski likes the Texans' momentum coming into this contest.
"Two factors come into play when picking the Texans as underdogs against the back-to-back Super Bowl champions," Sobleski said.
"First, Kansas City's average margin of victory during the regular season landed at 7.1 points. Andy Reid's squad played close games throughout the campaign. A person can point to the fact the Chiefs seemed to have 'figured it out' down the stretch, with back-to-back double-digit wins in Weeks 16 and 17 before resting their starters during the final regular-season finale. In fact, one of those victories came over this weekend's opponent.
"However, a little rust may offset those recent performances, with many of Kansas City's key performers not having played since Christmas Day. The Chiefs are deserved favorites, but the spread is fascinating considering this season's history."
Michelino is on the same side of the argument. He's in favor of the Texans raising their level of play against the reigning champions.
"Fresh off their first-round bye, the defending champs have their sights set on a three-peat. The Chiefs are undefeated at home this season and Patrick Mahomes boasts an incredible 13-5 record ATS in his playoff career. At first glance, beating a vulnerable Texans team seems like a cake walk to the AFC Championship Game...but not so fast.
"The last time these two faced off less than a month ago, it was a hard-fought, one-score game in favor of the Chiefs. This Texans defense, which shut down the Chargers and forced four Justin Herbert interceptions, is very solid, and the offense has just enough firepower to make things interesting.
"Yes, the Texans offensive line is an issue, and Chris Jones figures to have a huge impact, but Joe Mixon's rushing ability and a creative scheme can offset some of that, and Nico Collins can take any catch to the house. Given the Chiefs' prolonged offensive struggles this season, I think the Texans can keep this close enough to cover easily.
"I can't believe I'm fading Andy and Mahomes in the playoffs, but this number is just too big for me to pass up."
Predictions
Davenport: Chiefs
Gagnon: Texans
Hanford: Chiefs
Knox: Chiefs
Michelino: Texans
Moton: Chiefs
O'Donnell: Chiefs
Sobleski: Texans
ATS Consensus: Chiefs -8.5
Score Prediction: Chiefs 26, Texans 17
Washington Commanders (12-5) at Detroit Lions (15-2)
2 of 4
DK Line: Detroit -9.5
The Detroit Lions had a Wild Card Round bye week. Though they have won 14 of their last 15 outings, one has to wonder if the team will get off to a slow start while re-establishing some of its rhythm.
While the Lions rested on a week off, the Washington Commanders went on the road to upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20. Jayden Daniels' impressive rookie campaign extended into the playoffs. He threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns while completing 69 percent of his passes.
Including the postseason, the Commanders are tied for the sixth-best record ATS (11-6-1). The Lions have the best record ATS (12-5), but they're 5-4 as home favorites.
Moton sees something special in Daniels and notes the improvement in the Commanders defense. He sides with Washington to cover the spread.
"This line doesn't give enough respect to Washington and 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year front-runner Jayden Daniels," Moton said.
"The Commanders slowed down the Buccaneers' third-ranked offense in a road victory last week, and Daniels helped position them to kick the game-winning field.
"Head coach Dan Quinn and coordinator Joe Whitt have molded the team's defense into a respectable unit throughout the season. In clutch moments, Daniels is far beyond his years.
"Washington won't shut down the Lions offense, but along with Daniels, it can do enough to keep the score margin in the single digits."
Gagnon noted the Commanders haven't lost by big margins and expects them to keep the score close as well.
"That Lions defense is still quite banged up and vulnerable, and it won't be easy to stop Jayden Daniels and a Washington team that has a lot of good vibes entering this affair. The Commanders haven't lost by a double-digit margin since Week 1, and I fully expect them to keep this close if not pull off the upset."
Predictions
Davenport: Commanders
Gagnon: Commanders
Hanford: Lions
Knox: Lions
Michelino: Commanders
Moton: Commanders
O'Donnell: Commanders
Sobleski: Commanders
ATS Consensus: Commanders +9.5
Score Prediction: Lions 31, Commanders 27
Los Angeles Rams (10-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
3 of 4
DK Line: Philadelphia -6
Last week, the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Green Bay Packers in a 22-10 slugfest. After missing two games while in concussion protocol, Jalen Hurts racked up 167 total yards (passing and rushing combined) and threw for two touchdowns.
Based on the Eagles' modest offensive production in their victory over the Packers, some bettors may be hesitant to back them on a six-point spread. Remember that they will face the Los Angeles Rams, who are coming off a dominant 27-9 victory over the 14-win Minnesota Vikings.
That said, the Eagles dominated the Rams 37-20 in Philadelphia two months ago. Though Knox expects to see a closer matchup on Sunday, he still likes the Eagles to win by more than a touchdown.
"I think this is a tricky one for two reasons," Knox pondered.
"For one, the Rams offensive line seems to be in a much better place than it was when these two teams met in the regular season.
"Secondly, I love what I've seen from the Rams defensive front over the past few weeks. L.A. has become quite adept at pressuring the quarterback, and pass protection isn't Philly's strongest trait. Philadelphia dominated the line of scrimmage offensively and defensively in Week 12, and I doubt we'll see it do so as convincingly this time around.
"I'm still inclined to back the home team, though I'd feel better about it if the line was about a point lower. I love the way Vic Fangio's defense is playing right now, and I think it gives the Eagles the edge in what should be a physical and tightly contested battle."
Davenport picked the Rams, though he's wary of Saquon Barkley's ability to run for over 200 yards.
"My heart wants the Rams to win this game. For Los Angeles to have something to cheer for, even if L.A. isn't exactly Ramsville. For Matthew Stafford to get another shot to deny the Lions a Super Bowl trip. Had the Lions put the team around Stafford in his prime that they have around Jared Goff...that Stafford's Hall of Fame credentials are debated makes my head hurt.
"But the game is in Philly and when these teams met earlier this year at SoFi, Saquon Barkley topped 250 rushing yards and averaged almost 10 yards a pop. If the Eagles continue to show dents caused by injuries and if the Rams can repeat their defensive performance against Minnesota, then an upset is at least possible. But it's more likely that the Eagles defense and Barkley's running grind out a win by five points or fewer.
Predictions
Davenport: Rams
Gagnon: Rams
Hanford: Eagles
Knox: Eagles
Michelino: Eagles
Moton: Eagles
O'Donnell: Rams
Sobleski: Rams
ATS Consensus: None
Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Rams 21
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Baltimore Ravens (12-5) at Buffalo Bills (13-4)
4 of 4
DK Line: Baltimore -1.5
Even though the Buffalo Bills have a better record than the Baltimore Ravens, they're the underdogs in this matchup. The Bills are home underdogs for the first time in a long time, which means they could head into this game with a chip on their shoulder.
Excluding a Week 18 defeat with backups in for most of the contest, the Bills have only lost one game since Week 6, a road matchup with the Los Angeles Rams.
Nonetheless, oddsmakers undoubtedly factored in the Bills' 35-10 road loss to the Ravens in Week 4.
With a couple of additions and returning players for the Bills, Hanford and O'Donnell like Buffalo to avenge its regular-season loss to Baltimore.
Wes: Let's start with what we saw this year: The Ravens beat the Bills in Baltimore 35-10 back in Week 4. Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards in that game. The Ravens brought in Henry for games like that and, more importantly, this playoff game. Is that enough to warrant 1.5 points on the road against a Bills team that lost only one meaningful game in its last 12?
Ian: While I understand it, I'm still shocked to see Buffalo as an underdog in a home playoff game. That hasn't happened to the Bills since 1967. The Bills certainly left a lot to be desired in the Week 4 blowout, and this is a Ravens team that has won five straight games by at least 14 points, but I find it hard to believe Josh Allen won't use that lopsided loss as extra motivation this time around. They'll need to make some adjustments, though, namely against Derrick Henry. How do you see them doing that?
Wes: Keep him off the field. Keep Lamar off the field. The Bills were second-best this season in fourth-down conversion rate. Be aggressive in the right spots. Don't just settle for field position or three points when you have momentum on your side against a Ravens offense that produced the most 40-plus-yard passing plays this season. Lamar's 8.8 yards per attempt was the highest in the league for starting QBs. Keep them off the field as much as possible. Wait, why are we both on the Bills if we know all this?
Ian: Keeping them off the field is really the only guaranteed antidote against a duo as dynamic as those two. But I will note that Buffalo is in a better position this time around with Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano in the fold. Neither played in the previous game and both should go a long way in their attempts to slow down the Ravens' run game. Milano especially should factor into keeping tabs on Lamar getting out of the pocket as well. I hear you on logic favoring the Ravens, but for me the gut instinct is simply stronger here. I can't believe a player as good as Josh Allen is going to strike out again, but he's going to need some help. We saw Ty Johnson emerge last week against Denver. Who makes a big play outside of Allen to push them over the top this week?
Wes: You know my answer here. Amari Cooper. The guy has too much talent to ignore when on the field. He's still seeing the same snap percentage despite some lower target numbers. In a game where a broken play can make the difference, I'm getting behind the guy they traded a third-round pick for just a couple months ago (and his +450 Anytime TD number). What about you?
Ian: Cooper is a good choice, and my guess is that the Ravens expect him to be more of an emphasis, so I'm going to go with Khalil Shakir. Shakir caught six passes against Denver, 76 passes in the regular season and always seems to be open. Nothing about his game is flashy, but his ability to run after the catch can serve as an extension of the run game in a sense when Buffalo isn't likely to get James Cook going in a big way against a tough Ravens run D.
Wes: Yeah, it's more about the Bills righting the wrongs from their first meeting with Baltimore than anything the Ravens can do. And hey, in the worst-case scenario, we're getting points. You noted the postseason number already, and the Bills haven't been home 'dogs in any game since the 2020 season. So we got that going for us, which is nice.
Ian: Righting wrongs and the fact that it feels like now or never in Buffalo with missed opportunities in the past and Allen playing the best ball of his career. This has all the makings of a classic, but it's impossible for me to pass up the points.
Predictions
Davenport: Bills
Gagnon: Bills
Hanford: Bills
Knox: Bills
Michelino: Bills
Moton: Ravens
O'Donnell: Bills
Sobleski: Ravens
ATS Consensus: Bills +1.5
Score Prediction: Bills 31, Ravens 28
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