Hot Seat Check for Mike McCarthy, NFL Coaches Likely to Keep Job After Black Monday
For the 18 NFL teams that missed the playoffs, the 2025 offseason officially kicked off Monday. A handful of coaches around the league have to be breathing a sigh of relief, as the Jacksonville Jaguars' Doug Pederson and the New England Patriots' Jerod Mayo were the only coaches to be let go on Black Monday. The Las Vegas Raiders then parted ways with first-year head coach Antonio Pierce on Tuesday.
While other coaches could still find themselves on the unemployment line eventually, most of these candidates will likely settle for spending the 2025 campaign on the hot seat.
However, not every coach's seat is equally hot. Some of them are on extremely shaky ground and could be gone as early as the opening months of the 2025 season if their squad doesn't display immediate improvement. Others should have the entirety of the upcoming campaign to prove themselves.
With that in mind, let's get out the thermometer and run a temperature check on the coaches who survived Black Monday.
Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins
1 of 5
The Miami Dolphins went from being one of the NFL's most exciting teams to an inconsistent non-contender in the span of one season. Head coach Mike McDaniel now has to prove that this disappointing 2024 season was an anomaly.
McDaniel arrived in Miami in 2022 and brought with him plenty of optimism for the future. The team finally committed to Tua Tagovailoa as its franchise quarterback and was rewarded with a 9-8 season that resulted in its first playoff berth since 2016.
The team built on that solid campaign—one that ended with Miami giving the rival Buffalo Bills a scare in the Wild Card Round despite Tagovailoa's absence—by crafting the league's No. 1 offense in 2023. McDaniel's scheme resulted in the 'Phins averaging over 400 yards and nearly 30 points per game on the way to an 11-6 finish, Miami's best season since 2008.
Things began to spiral in the playoffs, however, as the Dolphins were run out of Arrowhead by the eventual champion Kansas City Chiefs in the Wild Card Round. The team then took a major step back on offense this past season, averaging roughly league-average marks of 325.9 yards and 20.3 points per game.
Tagovailoa missed six games after playing a full season in 2023 for the first time in his career, and the ground game also regressed from a top-six unit to a bottom-12 one. That led to Miami going just 8-9 and losing a game in Week 18 to the lowly New York Jets despite still having a chance to make the postseason at the time.
While McDaniel wound up keeping his job, he can't afford to have the Dolphins underperform again next year. The team's window appears to be closing quickly, and cracks are starting to show, with Tyreek Hill hinting he wants out after missing the playoffs for the first time in his NFL career.
Seat Status: Warm
Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys
2 of 5
The Dallas Cowboys just slogged through a tough 7-10 season—their worst since head coach Mike McCarthy's first year in 2020—and now have a slew of question marks to address this offseason. That starts with whether McCarthy will be returning for a sixth season.
While McCarthy did lead Dallas to three straight 12-5 seasons and playoff berths, the regression this past season and his lack of appearances beyond the divisional round could lead to a coaching change.
Team owner Jerry Jones won't have much time to ponder the coach's future, as the Chicago Bears reportedly requested an interview with McCarthy for their head coaching vacancy. McCarthy's contract expires Wednesday, and Dallas only has exclusive negotiating rights with him until January 14.
While McCarthy said he hopes to return for 2025 and beyond, it remains to be seen if Jones wants to run it back with a coach who has gone just 1-3 in the playoffs in Dallas.
Jones hasn't shied away from praising McCarthy, calling him "one of the best coaches" despite waffling on a commitment to him moving forward. Jones clearly desires a return to the big game—Dallas hasn't reached an NFC Championship Game, let alone a Super Bowl in nearly three decades—but doesn't appear to have an alternative option in mind.
With all signs pointing toward a reunion for at least one more season, McCarthy's seat is safe for now. Falling short in next year's playoffs—or falling out of contention for a postseason spot early in the season—would presumably spell the end of the McCarthy regime in Dallas.
Seat Status: Warm
Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns
3 of 5
The Kevin Stefanski era began on a high note for the Cleveland Browns in 2022. He took home Coach of the Year honors while guiding the Browns to their first playoff victory since 1994. Unfortunately, it's mostly been downhill ever since.
Stefanski has done his best to keep the squad afloat despite being hamstrung by a series of quarterback and salary-cap woes. He even led the Browns to a 11-6 record and playoff berth last year behind a remarkable performance from midseason pickup Joe Flacco.
However, things took a turn for the worse in 2024 with Cleveland going 3-14—by far its poorest showing since a winless 2017 campaign—and losing quarterback Deshaun Watson to an injury for the third consecutive year.
The Watson trade has saddled Stefanski with issues that unfairly reflect his abilities as a coach. The organization hasn't been able to construct a competent roster due to the quarterback's mediocre play and cap-hogging deal.
Considering how poorly Watson has played across his 19 games with the Browns, it's almost a miracle that Cleveland has gone 21-30 in that span. Unfortunately, Stefanski likely won't have an opportunity to show what he can do without being saddled with that albatross contract. The team likely won't get out from under Watson's deal until 2026 at the earliest, at which point Cleveland's brass may be looking to shake things up with a coaching change.
While Stefanski may be able to keep his job into 2026 if he somehow manages to get this squad to punch up and finish around .500 next year, that could be a tough ask without the Browns knocking their 2025 draft picks out of the park.
Seat Status: Hot
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Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts
4 of 5
After the Indianapolis Colts fell just short of a playoff berth for the second consecutive year, it's now time for Shane Steichen to show he can get this organization over the hump.
The Colts outperformed expectations during Steichen's first season in 2023 by going 9-8 despite prized rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson making only four starts. However, they failed to make a leap in 2024. The Colts finished 8-9 and are heading into the offseason with many of the same questions that have been surrounding them for several years.
One of the most damning failures of the Steichen era has been his inability to maximize Richardson. The team spent the No. 4 overall pick on the dual-threat prospect shortly after Steichen arrived two years ago. While Richardson had flashes of brilliance as a rookie, he regressed significantly this past season.
Richardson did manage to post a 6-5 record in the 11 games he started, but he was temporarily benched for his inconsistent play and finished the year having completed a league-worst 47.7 percent of his throws for 1,814 yards, eight touchdowns and 12 interceptions. His inability to keep defenses honest hamstrung the Colts' offense and allowed defenses to key in on the run.
It remains to be seen if Steichen can unlock Richardson's potential and turn him into the type of star that his unteachable size and athleticism suggests he's capable of becoming. Steichen did have success in his prior stops working with Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert, but he hasn't been able to get the most out of Richardson thus far.
Steichen's job security is now tied to Richardson, as the Colts don't have a viable alternative to turn to this offseason. The coach must find a way to make a run with his young passer heading into a pivotal Year 3, or Indy may be starting over with a new regime in 2026.
Status: Hot
Brian Daboll, New York Giants
5 of 5
In only two years, Brian Daboll has gone from one of the NFL's most promising head coaches to one who is fortunate to still have a job.
The Daboll era in New York got off to a blissful start. He led the Giants to their first winning season since 2016 and their first playoff victory since their Super Bowl run in 2011. There was plenty of hope for the future in the Big Apple afterward, but that optimism has been dashed by a series of head-scratching personnel decisions and poor performances on the field.
During the 2023 offseason, Big Blue gave quarterback Daniel Jones a massive extension but refused to pay star running back Saquon Barkley. Jones unsurprisingly regressed in 2023 before suffering a season-ending injury, and the Giants went a lowly 6-11.
Daboll's honeymoon officially ended this season, one in which Jones was cut and the Giants finished with a league-worst 3-14 record. Meanwhile, Barkley signed with the rival Philadelphia Eagles this past offseason and narrowly missed out on breaking Eric Dickerson's all-time single-season rushing record.
Daboll's area of expertise is offense. He ascended the coaching ranks largely due to his work with quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. It's unacceptable for New York to finish a season ranked in the bottom five in total offense, passing offense and scoring, let alone finish two consecutive campaigns like that.
Daboll will get one final chance to turn things around in 2025. The Giants are armed with the No. 3 overall pick and an opportunity to land a franchise quarterback for the first time under him. However, he likely won't be around this time next year if the team doesn't bounce back right away.
Seat Status: Red Hot
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