NFL Divisional Round Playoff Predictions: Who Will Be the Winners This Week?

Well, last week was a great way to bring in this year's playoffs.

It gave us plenty of storylines heading in and some great ones coming out. We saw which of the rookie QBs (and, more importantly, which team's defense) could hold their poise better and make the plays necessary to win (T.J. Yates and Houston).

We saw a matchup of two devastating offenses passing up and down the field end with tons of yardage/scoring, and also more record shattering (Calvin Johnson had over 200 yards and two TDs for the Lions, while the Saints 626 yards of total offense was a record number).

Two teams who definitely had something to prove came together and definitely proved some stuff to everyone watching (the Giants can still physically dominate an opponent, while the Falcons still have plenty of work to do before they can legitimately contend for a Super Bowl). And, of course, a certain QB with a knack for magical late-game play this season provided it yet again (Tebow's 80-yard pass on the first OT play to win it).

What does this week have in store?

The answers to the following questions will provide us with a huge part of the reasons teams either win or lose this week:

Can Tebow deliver more fourth quarter magic against a player whose career is built on clutch late-game play in Brady? Which defense will do the best in shutting down the opposition's running game (Texans-Ravens)? Will the Giants' reinvigorated D-line be able to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers? Which is more valuable in the playoffs, an elite offense or elite defense (New Orleans-San Francisco)?

Those questions and more will be officially answered once these games occur, but until then, let's take a closer look at each individual game, starting with...

Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots: Which 4th Quarter King Will Take the Win?

A rematch from earlier this season, a game that ended 41-23 in favor of the Patriots. That game was closer than it appears, however, so don't just assume the Patriots will take this one in a blowout again.

The Broncos actually played really well most of the first half. What ended up killing them in this game were turnovers, particularly fumbles. Of the five that happened, New England recovered four of them. Fumbles are pretty random when it comes to recovering them, so they cannot expect to get so lucky this time around.

What they can expect, though, is to be able to have their way with the Broncos' D. They have just too many weapons on offense, which will allow them to attack Denver if their D doesn't produce a pass rush (which was the case in the first game).

Denver's D did do well last week against the Steelers with five sacks, but the caveat here is that (1) Big Ben was horribly hobbled, so he couldn't avoid as well as usual, and (2) the Steelers O-Line is atrocious, while the Patriots is still at worst pretty decent. So I expect plenty of yards and points to come from New England this weekend.

I do think Tebow has the potential to keep this game close regardless of this, however. I think unlike last time, where the fumble problems eventually forced the running game to be more of a non-factor for Denver as the game got into the second half, Denver will hold onto it much better and thus control the time of possession and keep the game closer as a result.

And after what Tebow did to the Steelers through the air last week (albeit with multiple Steelers players being lost to injury early on), I could see similar results against the much worse Patriots D if it stays close and they start to load up against the run at all. 

All this being said, I gotta go with New England simply because I think their offense will be pretty much uninhibited by the Broncos defense because of all their weapons and suspect ability to pressure Brady.

It is tough to choose against Tebow right now, especially if things stay decently close towards the end, but before the Tebow magic started showing up this year, it was Brady who everyone always would choose to lead that final drive in the fourth quarter to win it.

I'm suspecting he won't need to show it this weekend, but it'll still be a pretty close game, finally put out of reach with a late score.

New England 38 Denver 24

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens: Which D Better Contains the Opposing Star RB?

When these two teams met earlier this year, the Ravens convincingly won 29-14 despite not really playing all that great. Back then, the Texans still had Schaub at QB, too, which makes it all the more alarming for them in this rematch that he won't be there.

They have been a hugely resilient group despite that and other setbacks (OLB Mario Williams and backup QB Matt Leinart also had season-ending injuries, Andre Johnson missed multiple games to hamstring problems, and even defensive coordinator Wade Phillips missed games to illness), so they won't come in thinking they don't have a chance.

That resiliency—plus their ridiculously improved defense—give them a chance regardless of what happened last time. It would obviously be an upset if they did win, but they have factors working in their favor.

Despite Yates being a rookie, he has played decently well as starter. Arian Foster and the Houston run game as a whole have been majorly effective all year, and even last week made up for one of their poorer performances earlier this year against the Bengals by running strongly against them.

The Houston O-line is widely considered one of, if not the best in football right now and kept holes open in the run game and Yates on his feet all day last weekend. Andre Johnson, who didn't play in the first matchup of these two, is healthy this time around. And, of course, that remodeled D has been great all year. 

Now onto what Baltimore has working in its favor. They are at home, where they were 8-0 this year. Ray Rice has had a huge year with plenty of explosive plays, and did plenty of damage the first meeting. They have finally got a deep threat in Torrey Smith, while Anquan Boldin still can play at an elite level. Their defense has been its usual powerful self while coming on stronger with pressure and turnovers than recent years.

As you can see, both have plenty working for them. What plenty of people think could be a huge part of the difference is which Flacco will show up: good or bad? He hasn't played all that well this season in general and has seen his stats drop all around compared to previous years. He has had good games when necessary, though, like against the Steelers, but the main argument against this thinking trend is that his team isn't really built to allow him to put up the great numbers that elite QB's produce.

His team is set up greatly to run the ball and control the clock while hitting a few nice plays in the pass game—which is why the main question here is which defense more effectively stops the run game? The answer was probably set in that first game, with Arian Foster unable to break through the disciplined Baltimore D on his cutbacks, while Rice made multiple big plays on the day.

I think Foster will have a better day this time around, but Rice still won't get contained enough to change the outcome.

Baltimore 20 Houston 16

N.Y. Giants @ Green Bay Packers: Can Giants' D Stop Packers' O?

The Giants should be coming into this game with plenty of confidence.

They kept things really close and showed they could play with the Packers earlier this season in their 38-35 loss. They have won three in a row and 4-of-5 since that game. Their offense has been passing the ball pretty well lately and all their receivers are currently healthy. Their defense has been dominating the opposing offenses it has faced for three straight weeks.

Even the run game started working last week after being by far the worst in the league all year long.

Looking at that, you have to say that they look like they have a good shot at going into Lambeau and winning. This all comes before you look at the Packers weaknesses at all, too. They had statistically the worst total defense in the league (yardage) and the second-worst pass defense. They can be susceptible to the run at times, especially a power-run game.

And when the turnovers dry up, they just don't win games. 

Not to say everything is terrible in Green Bay, however. In fact, it is really quite great in terms of them as a team. (Can't really call the happenings with OC Philbin's son good at all, but I won't get into that.) They have arguably the league's top QB (and probable MVP) in Aaron Rodgers, who had a 45-6 TD-INT ratio to go with 4,500-plus yards and a record-breaking 122.5 passer rating (stats that could've been ever better if he had played Week 17).

They have arguably the best and deepest receiving corps in the NFL (Jennings, Nelson, Driver, Jones, Cobb at WR and Finley at TE is hard to match). Their O-line is looking the healthiest its been in awhile (scary thought with how well the offense played most of the year, even with a weakened one). They scored the second-most points in a season with 560 (only the record-setting 2007 Patriots had more).

Even the defense had its bright spots in a bad year, leading the league with 31 INTs and tying the total turnover lead at 38. They also had the second-best giveaway/takeaway differential at 24 (49ers were best at 28; league average was 0).

The biggest factor in this game will end up being whether the Giants' defense slows/stops Aaron Rodgers enough to allow the Giants to put up more points. Not to say the Giants' offense isn't going to play a huge role in that part, but the one setting the bar offensively coming into this game is the Packers.

And the one setting more of a bar defensively here is the Giants. Seems obvious that this has to be the most important matchup coming into the game. My opinion? Both will score plenty of points, which means neither defense will do much stopping.

In that style of game, you have to go with the better offense, and I would say that one is the Packers, with a familiar score as well.

Green Bay 38  N.Y.Giants 35

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers: What Wins Games, Offense or Defense?

This is the matchup I'm most excited for this weekend, even more so than the one including my own team (OK, not quite, but you get the point).

We hear every year about how offense sells tickets but defense wins championships. With all the offensive explosion and defensive rule changing in recent years, it has become more and more clear that this idea is outdated—or is it?

This game is the ultimate test for that theory.

The Saints embody everything about the game today: mega-scoring, fast-paced offense that can attack a defense from any angle with a multitude of weapons. The 49ers, on the other hand, are the exact kind of team people think about with that "defense wins championships" mentality: hard-hitting, disciplined, run-stuffing, field-controllers who don't let offenses get anything they want.

One thing is for sure: Seeing the process to finding this answer will be the most unbiased (as in when not accounting for team allegiance) fun part of this whole divisional round.

Each team has plenty going for it. The 49ers had the week off to get healthy and set their game-plan, they have home-field advantage, they have a great defense, a ball-control offense that can control the clock (and decent receiving options to help balance the run game), a distinct special-teams advantage and a head coach who has shown to be pretty brilliant as an innovator on the sidelines and inspirational voice to his players.

The Saints were able to keep momentum with their huge offensive showing against Detroit, their QB is playing at an MVP-level, they are running the ball very effectively with their three-headed rushing attack, their receiving corps is at least top-three in the league (with Green Bay and New England; mix and match as you please), their line is also in the tops in the league (both starting guards made the All-Pro team), and they also have an innovative coach who keeps his team highly inspired and motivated.

Tough to make a choice here.

The way this game will be determined is ultimately the matchup of the Saints offense and the 49ers defense. If the Saints win that matchup, they will be putting up a lot of points, which will make it very difficult and unlikely that the 49ers will score enough to keep up.

If the 49ers take that matchup, the Saints won't be blowing the game open, which means the 49ers will be hanging around and controlling the game clock, limiting the number of chances Brees has at putting the score up and maybe even forcing them into catch-up mode and, therefore, eliminating their run game and making them one-dimensional and easier to defend against.

What I see happening here is more-so that first scenario. I can't legitimately see the Saints offense being stopped enough to let San Francisco get the win. It'll still be relatively close, but the Saints will take it. 

New Orleans 31 San Francisco 23

Past Playoff Prediction Results: Wild Card Round and Past Few Years

This Year

2011 Season Playoffs Wild Card Round: 3-1 (Correct Picks: Houston, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants)

Also, predictions from previous seasons to show how well I've done in the past with these.

Previous Years

2010 Season Playoffs: 8-3; correctly picked Packers over Steelers in SB

2009 Season Playoffs: 9-2; correctly picked Saints over Colts in SB

2008 Season Playoffs: 9-2

2007 Season Playoffs: 7-4; correctly picked Giants over Patriots in SB

So including this year's picks in the wildcard round (and a bad first year of officially tracking my picks in '07), I'm 36-12 in playoff choices the past five years so far, while also picking three of the past four Super Bowl winners.

Not too shabby. eh?