2024 College Football Betting Locks: Week 1
A long, complicated offseason of movement has officially given way for actual football games. Last weekend, we enjoyed a small sampling of games in the form of Week 0. While it didn't look like much on paper, college football often delivers when you're least expecting.
And if Saturday was any indicator how the season will go, well, we're in for a beautiful, chaotic five months.
Over the past month, we've made our picks for the Heisman and the national championship. We've picked conference winners and games of the year. We've handicapped the sport every possible way.
Now? We need to pick winners. Each and every week, that will be the goal with Locks of the Week. Last weekend, we went a mundane 2-2. Given the offerings of games, this wasn't necessarily shocking.
This week? We have a buffet of games to pick from. There are and never will be excuses. Before we get to the Week 1 picks, let's first explore the good and bad from the week that was.
The Good: Nevada (+27) vs. SMU: Forget about the nearly two-touchdown spread. Nevada could have—and should have—won this game outright. In fact, the Wolf Pack had a horrific fourth quarter to give this one up. Covering the spread, however, was a given after about 12 minutes.
The Bad: Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (Over 55.5): It started off beautifully. Each team scored with ease, and both offenses felt in line to really operate. Then the clock kept running and the offenses seemed to chew seconds more than yards. In the end, it went under. Hey, it happens.
With that out of the way, we're on to Week 1.
For the latest spreads on futures and games, head to DraftKings.
Texas A&M (-3) vs. Notre Dame
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In recent days, this number has crept in Texas A&M's direction. While we would much prefer to have this number below a field goal—and we already bet this game many weeks ago—we're still comfortable laying the points where they are.
Unlike many early high-profile football games in a season, this one will be played on a college campus. That environment just so happens to be one of the toughest in the entire sport. It's also a difficult place to break in a new quarterback and a largely renovated offensive line.
For Notre Dame, that is exactly what the assignment will be.
As for the Aggies, well, there are plenty of new pieces, including a new head coach, that will also debut. Quarterback Conner Weigman has played plenty of reps, although injuries have limited his action. If we can stay healthy, he has a chance he can be exceptional.
Against Notre Dame's defense, being exceptional will be a challenge. Being good enough, however, feels perfectly reasonable.
The total in this game is hovering in the mid-40s, which says plenty about the defense we're expected to see. Ultimately, A&M finds enough offense to deliver a massive win in Mike Elko's debut.
USC (+4) vs. LSU
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One of the most interesting games of the weekend will take place on Sunday night, and the vast majority of onlookers will place their hard-earned dollars on the team not coached by Lincoln Riley.
Given the way last season unfolded, with No. 1 pick Caleb Williams penciled in at quarterback, this is understandable. The Trojans fell apart, particularly on defense. Granted, the Pac-12 was a gauntlet last year. But the optics were not ideal.
It would be reckless to assume that all these issues are fixed, although Riley hired a new defensive coordinator, hit the transfer portal and added depth to a unit that needed it.
He also found his new QB in the team's bowl game. We have a lot to learn about Miller Moss, although his six-touchdown performance against Louisville was encouraging.
For LSU, replacing Jayden Daniels—the No. 2 pick in the draft—will also be a challenge. Garrett Nussmeier is certainly capable, although Daniels was overwhelming last season.
It will be easy for many to simply toss aside USC, although doing so feels somewhat reckless right now. This will be a close game until the very end, and it would not shock whatsoever to see the Trojans win outright.
Miami at Florida (Over 54)
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This has the ingredients to be a weird, wild football game.
Miami, a slight road favorite, will enjoy the services of new quarterback Cam Ward. As a result, the buzz on the Hurricanes is understandably high, and the offense can be undeniably better. It needs to be better.
In fact, outside of Ohio State coach Ryan Day, Miami's Mario Cristobal might have more pressure on him than any coach nationwide.
The Hurricanes' defense wasn't horrid last year. It wasn't great either, ranking No. 44 nationally. Florida's was a bit worse, finishing No. 78 overall. Both units should improve, although neither feels like a dominant force in 2024.
Offensively, the Gators are likely to be a bit better than many expect. Quarterback Graham Mertz showed flashes last year, and he should be able to create once again.
So much has been made about Florida's grueling schedule, and it's hard to argue against it. Lost in that conversation, however, is the fact that this team still has plenty of capable pieces on both sides. While you won't hear us campaign for them as an SEC dark horse, the Gators could certainly be feisty.
This has the makings of a high-scoring, dramatic football game.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Michigan State (-14) vs. FAU
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Oh, things have been complicated for Michigan State. For as wonderful as Mel Tucker's debut was for the Spartans, the end was the exact opposite. The ultimate result was a lost football season and a new football coach.
That coach, Jonathan Smith, is a certified winner. His work at Oregon State was simply superb. Now, he'll be asked to do something similar in East Lansing.
Having quarterback Aidan Chiles will certainly help, especially in a game like this. Chiles followed Smith from Oregon State, and the glimpses we've seen, while small, are fascinating.
Beyond Chiles, Smith did well in the portal, bringing a mix of contributors from his former team while also adding meaningful players elsewhere.
More than anything, even with the unknown, this is a bet on Smith and Chiles. FAU isn't a bad program by any means. Tom Herman has plenty of experience, and results should be better this year.
Still, it won't be enough. Michigan State is poised to roll.
Troy (-8.5) vs. Nevada
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Things were going swimmingly for Nevada in Week 0. Then the fourth-quarterback collapse against SMU happened.
Although the Wolf Pack did well to bring us cash, the outcome of that could (and will) linger. To put it more succinctly, this has got a potential football hangover written all over it.
After all that, Nevada will travel to Troy for Week 1. The Trojans closed out 2023 by winning 10 of 11. Then, head coach Jon Sumrall left for Tulane. Then, a huge chunk of a really good roster left to play elsewhere.
There's no question there are holes to hill, especially on a defense that was dominant last year. Gerad Parker, who spent last season coaching the offense at Notre Dame, will be tasked with keeping this very productive program in line.
Will the program take a step back? It feels extremely likely.
Still, this is an ideal spot for a program turning over a lot. Nevada, fresh off heartbreak, must head on the road to play in a tricky environment. The Wolf Pack were plenty game last week, although the effort will be hard to duplicate.
Other Plays on the Card
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Minnesota vs. North Carolina (Over 49.5)
Both teams have key players to replace, although both should be better, especially on offense, than many give them credit for. As a reminder, this is a Thursday night game (and one of the best ones that evening). Don't miss the opening kick.
Virginia Tech (-13.5) at Vanderbilt
This is a fascinating line and matchup to start the season, although the number feels right. The Hokies are on the rise, and they should be much improved. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, has a brutal out-of-conference foe before a brutal in-conference stretch begins.
Georgia Southern (+13) vs. Boise State
This is a bit of a slippery spot for the Broncos, who begin the year with plenty of playoff buzz in the expanded format. While Boise State should ultimately win, Clay Helton should do enough to keep this one within the number.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
