Updated Blake Snell Landing Spots in Free Agency amid Giants Opt-Out Rumors
The partnership between Blake Snell and the San Francisco Giants has turned out to be a fruitful one, but it may not last.
Snell's two-year, $62 million contract with the Giants contains an opt-out clause, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported on Sunday that the two-time Cy Young Award winner will be exercising it after the 2024 season.
Let's say that if Snell and his agent, Scott Boras, do choose to test the free-agent waters for the second time in as many offseasons, it won't come as a shock to Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi.
"His representation is known for taking things into the offseason," Zaidi said in a radio interview last Thursday. "That's not a commentary or critique. It's just the way it is. And I think he recognizes that there's going to be a healthy market for his services."
Against this backdrop, it's fair game to get a head start on speculating on free-agent landing spots for the 31-year-old Snell.
But first, we must assess his likely value.
What Will Snell's Value Be This Time?
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In case anyone doesn't remember, the contract Snell signed in March wasn't the deal he and Boras had in mind.
Even before Snell was named the National League Cy Young Award winner for 2023, MLB Trade Rumors had projected him for a seven-year, $200 million deal. Subsequent reports put his asking price well above that mark, including as high as $270 million.
It wasn't too surprising that Snell ultimately settled for far less, however. It was a weird offseason, and Boras seemed guilty of having misread the market.
Of course, Snell and Boras wouldn't be eyeing another turn on the market if the former's fortunes weren't changing for the better. And goodness, are they ever.
After a brutal start to 2024—i.e., two trips to the injured list and a 9.51 ERA in six starts—Snell is now on one of his trademark heaters. He has a 1.03 ERA with 70 strikeouts and 16 walks in his last eight starts, one of which was that no-hitter in Cincinnati on August 2.
Though his ups do tend to come with downs, Snell is currently reminding everyone that he is one of the elite pitchers in MLB. Among those with at least 200 starts, he's seventh among active pitchers in ERA+. That doesn't happen by accident.
Granted, this is Snell's age-31 season and he'll turn 32 next April. But not so old that he has no hope of a long-term megadeal.
Aaron Nola got seven years, $172 million off his age-30 season and Jacob deGrom got five years, $185 million off his age-34 season. Based on those deals and the fact that a qualifying offer is now out of the picture, a six-year contract in the neighborhood of $200 million could be out there for Snell this winter.
Not counting worthwhile honorable mentions like the Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, and Snell's hometown Seattle Mariners, let's break down 10 potential suitors based on how well they are lined up to make such a deal.
Note: All wins above replacement are courtesy of Baseball Reference.
10-6: Yankees, Blue Jays, Astros, Orioles, Red Sox
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10. New York Yankees
Record: 73-52, 1st in AL East
2024 SP WAR: 10.2 (T-9th)
The Yankees were repeatedly linked to Snell last winter and they reportedly circled back to him ahead of the trade deadline. Yet Snell himself has indicated that the Yankees low-balled him last offseason, and their focus this winter will surely be on not low-balling Juan Soto.
9. Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 58-67, 5th in AL East
2024 SP WAR: 2.0 (T-27th)
The Blue Jays were said to be "quietly monitoring" Snell in January. Maybe they'll be more aggressive this winter, but there are also reasons to doubt it. They don't have much money coming off their books, and extending Vladimir Guerrero Jr. must be their priority.
8. Houston Astros
Record: 68-56, 1st in AL West
2024 SP WAR: 7.9 (13th)
Remember when the Astros were linked to Snell for a hot minute? A pursuit this winter would make more sense, as they'll have Justin Verlander coming off their books and Framber Valdez positioned to do the same after 2025. But then again, doing nine-figure deals with free agents isn't really Houston's thing, with just one deal totaling over $100M in franchise history.
7. Baltimore Orioles
Record: 73-53, 2nd in AL East
2024 SP WAR: 6.6 (T-16th)
The Orioles took a look at Snell ahead of the trade deadline, and it doesn't take much to imagine them doing it again if they can't re-sign Corbin Burnes. Yet if David Rubenstein is willing to spend that kind of money, he's better off putting it into extensions for the club's core stars.
6. Boston Red Sox
Record: 65-59, 3rd in AL East
2024 SP WAR: 8.3 (11th)
The Red Sox signing Snell last winter made sense on paper, but they didn't want to get involved with anyone who was tied to draft pick compensation. That won't be the case with Snell this time around, and Boston does need a No. 1. It's, therefore, too bad about their turn toward frugality.
5. San Francisco Giants
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Record: 64-63, 4th in NL West
2024 SP WAR: 5.0 (T-21st)
Even if Snell makes good on exercising his opt-out, such a maneuver need not mark the end of his time in San Francisco.
Though the lefty did voice frustration about the team pressuring him to make a quick return from his second IL stint back in June, Zaidi said in the previously mentioned interview that he sees Snell as being at home in his current environment.
"I think he's gotten increasingly comfortable here," Zaidi said. "He's kind of connected with the fans, connected with the team. So he's happy."
Along with the obvious one of him being a really good pitcher, this is one excuse for the Giants to want to keep Snell where he is alongside Logan Webb, Jordan Hicks and Kyle Harrison. And with plenty of luxury tax breathing room in their future, the Giants could handle another deal that pays Snell a high average salary.
But what about the length of the deal?
In the last decade, the Giants have been more of an opportunistic shopper than an aggressive one, favoring short-term agreements over long-term ones. This worked when Snell fell into their laps in March, but it may not be a good recipe for repeat success.
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4. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Record: 74-52, 1st in NL West
2024 SP WAR: 6.8 (15th)
He may not be on their roster, but it sure seems as if Snell is on the Dodgers' radar.
They were among the teams that checked in on him ahead of the deadline, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, who had also previously reported that the Dodgers made a "late play" to sign Snell as a free agent.
They could certainly use him right now, as "volatile" would be putting it lightly as a descriptor for their rotation. Dodgers starters have been regulars on the IL, including now with Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto sidelined.
Between this and the ever-looming possibility of Clayton Kershaw finally hanging up his spikes, it doesn't take much to see a future in which Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who ran the Tampa Bay Rays when they drafted Snell in 2011, kicks the tires on Snell yet again. And with them, money is never really an issue.
Rather, a better question is how motivated the Dodgers will be to sign Snell.
Glasnow, Yamamoto and Gavin Stone are locked in for 2025, which will also bring Shohei Ohtani's return to the mound. Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin will also be in line to return from elbow surgeries and, hey, Kershaw could always exercise his $5 million player option in lieu of retiring.
3. Texas Rangers
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Record: 58-68, 3rd in AL West
2024 SP WAR: 5.0 (T-21st)
The Rangers' World Series defense hasn't gone as planned, but it wasn't that long ago that they were still thinking about big swings.
According to Heyman, they also checked in on Snell before the trade deadline. Perhaps it was no more than due diligence on the part of general manager Chris Young. But even then, he wouldn't have done it if he wasn't at least a little interested.
And come the winter, Young will have excuses to be that much more interested in Snell.
This is the final year under contract for Max Scherzer and Andrew Heaney, and Nathan Eovaldi could also test the open market if he gets the 29 innings he needs to turn his $20 million option for 2025 into a player option.
If so, that would leave Young with three big holes to fill in the rotation after Jacob deGrom, who's nearing his return from Tommy John surgery. And if he was to convince ownership to cut a big check for Snell, it would be a familiar story.
Rather than affording him, it could be that selling Snell on the franchise could be the hard part for the Rangers. Last year looks a lot like an outlier next to seven losing seasons since 2017, and it's just not ideal that all the team's core stars are in their 30s.
2. New York Mets
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Record: 65-60, 3rd in NL East
2024 SP WAR: 6.3 (18th)
Though the Mets were never at the forefront of Snell's free-agent sweepstakes last winter or his trade sweepstakes this summer, they were at least on the outskirts of both.
He was among the frontline starters the Mets were "investigating" early in the 2023-24 offseason, and Andy Martino of SNY reported that they checked in with the Giants about Snell in July.
Like the Dodgers, the Mets could use a pitcher like Snell right now. It would be a reach to say they're contending despite their rotation, but it hasn't been a strength. And because of Kodai Senga's absences, it hasn't had a proper No. 1 all year.
Senga will be back in 2025, as will Sean Manaea, Paul Blackburn and David Peterson. But with José Quintana and Luis Severino on expiring contracts, there will be an opening for Snell if the Mets want to make a run at him.
If they do, affording him shouldn't be an issue. It can't be emphasized enough just how rich Steve Cohen is, and the amount of money the Mets have set to come free is staggering. If they wanted, they could likely add Snell and re-sign his fellow Boras client, Pete Alonso.
It's also possible, though, that the Mets' priority will be signing Juan Soto. Heyman has pondered whether they'll have to "significantly outbid" the Yankees to make it happen, in which case there might not actually be much left over for Snell.
1. San Diego Padres
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Record: 71-55, 2nd in NL West
2024 SP WAR: 10.2 (9th)
Snell, the once and future Padre?
It was possible as recently as July, as the Padres were yet another team that checked in on Snell. And now we know just how legitimate their interest in reuniting with him really is.
"The Padres love Blake Snell and could play for him this winter," wrote Heyman Thursday.
The Padres should love Snell, who finished his tenure in San Diego with a 2.23 ERA over his last 46 starts. And it certainly wasn't out of spite that they made no real effort to re-sign him last winter. They were on a payroll crunch, plain and simple.
If the Padres do play for Snell this winter, it would indicate that the crunch isn't permanent. As it is, GM AJ Preller has gotten the club under the luxury tax threshold, which will result in its penalty level being reset.
If the Padres do bring back Snell, he would slot back in next to Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove and otherwise alongside Dylan Cease and Michael King. That wouldn't be just any starting rotation.
It would be the best in baseball and, thus, an ideal weapon for taking down the Dodgers and finally delivering San Diego a World Series championship.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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