UFC 305: B/R Main Card Staff Predictions
UFC 305 is just around the corner.
The card goes down in Perth, Australia, this Saturday night (Sunday morning local time), and will feature a host of top fighters from both Australia and New Zealand. Chief among those is Nigerian-born Kiwi Israel Adesanya, who will look to reclaim the middleweight title at the expense of reigning champion Dricus Du Plessis, from South Africa.
The co-main event, meanwhile, will see New Zealand's Kai Kara-France take on Australia's Steve Erceg in a clash of top-ranked flyweights, both of whom could vault into title contention in victory.
Earlier on the card, New Zealand's Dan Hooker will look to take a big step up the lightweight rankings opposite Poland's Mateusz Gamrot, one of the top contenders in the division at present.
That fight will be preceded by a heavyweight clash between long-time contenders Tai Tuivasa and Jairzinho Rozenstruik, from Australia and Suriname, respectively.
The main card will be kicked off by a welterweight fight between Chinese fan favorite Li Jingliang, and rising Brazilian Carlos Prates.
As always, the B/R combat sports squad has you covered for pre-fight predictions. Keep scrolling to see who we're picking for Saturday's main card.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
1 of 5
Haris Kruskic: Admittedly, Israel Adesanya is my favorite UFC fighter of all time. I was there when he beat Kelvin Gastelum for the interim middleweight title in 2019 and it's been a blast to see his career trajectory since then.
However, a common theme throughout his career is that he struggles when an opponent pushes the pace. It happened most recently against Sean Strickland when Adesanya was walked down repeatedly en route to a shocking upset. That makes it hard for a technical striker to find their rhythm.
Dricus Du Plessis is all about pushing the pace in an unconventional way. I worry about his gas tank fading like it did in previous fights, but he held up well against Strickland earlier this year in a five-rounder. Expect Du Plessis to get the biggest win of his career.
Prediction: Du Plessis by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: This is such a hard fight to call. That's partly because Du Plessis and Adesanya are both so good at what they do, but also because there are so many variables surrounding Adesanya, who looked like a shadow of himself in his summer 2023 loss to Sean Strickland, and has not fought since.
I would say the doubts surrounding Adesanya are valid. At 35, it's possible he's beginning the decline that awaits all fighters. However, this is a guy who has made a career out of rising to the occasion — his 2023 knockout of Alex Pereira being the best example — and I expect him to do so again this weekend. Du Plessis will probably have some success early, but I think Adesanya's takedown defense and pinpoint striking will win him this fight.
Sooner or later, he's going to sting the champ and take the belt back.
Prediction: Adesanya by TKO, Rd. 3
Lyle Fitzsimmons: The boys are right. This one's tough. I want to say Adesanya so badly. I believe, skill for skill, he's a far superior fighter. Or maybe he was a far superior fighter. Outside of the rematch erasure of Pereira — which has aged well, no? — he's not looked so elite for what seems like a while. Meanwhile, DuPlessis has been improving each time. He's dangerous and the gas tank looks strong. That's a bad combo for Israel.
Du Plessis by split decision.
Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg
2 of 5
Haris Kruskic: Although many felt Kai Kara-France beat Amir Albazi in his last fight, the New Zealander finds himself 4-4 over his last eight. The Steve Erceg matchup is pivotal for KKF to stay in the upper echelon of flyweights and within arm's reach of a title shot.
Erceg is fresh off a rather peculiar title shot, losing to Alexandre Pantoja while only ranked tenth. A good grappler, Erceg hopes to get Kara-France on the mat. That will be a tough ask as KKF's takedown defense is superb.
Erceg's game may not be well-rounded enough to trouble Kara-France past the ground. I think Kai does enough to stifle Erceg.
Prediction: Kara-France by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: This is a great fight — maybe the best on the whole card outside the main event.
Kara-France and Erceg are both excellent strikers, and the time they spend on the feet should be exciting and competitive. However, unlike Haris, I think Erceg's grappling will be the difference-maker in this fight.
A few deftly-timed takedowns win him a fight that would otherwise be very difficult to score.
Prediction: Erceg by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Erceg was a great story in getting to his title shot from relative -- to the non-hardcore fan -- obscurity. And I believe he's probably a better fighter, too, than Kara-France. But the no-show on the championship level worries me, and I'll need to see him win in a big spot before I back him again.
Kara-France by unanimous decision.
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker
3 of 5
Haris Kruskic: It surprised me that Dan Hooker got another shot at a top five lightweight considering he's lost four of his last seven, but winning a wild fight like his last against Jalin Turner can really propel you to better opportunities.
Mateusz Gamrot is just too well-rounded for the striking-heavy Hooker. He already has a legitimate argument for a title shot. This will just be an extra cherry on top of his resume.
Prediction: Gamrot by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this one. I don't consider Dan Hooker an elite fighter. He's a lot of fun to watch, but he has lost decisively to every top lightweight he's fought, and the former KSW champ Gamrot is definitely a top lightweight. This fight might go slightly better for Hooker than his 2021 loss to Islam Makhachev, which ended with a first-round submission, but I still see him getting taken down and controlled for the duration.
Prediction: Gamrot by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Agree with Tom. Hooker has had a nice run, but he's not as high on the ladder as Gamrot, and hasn't done anything lately to deserve this spotlight. Can't imagine it'll go well.
Prediction: Gamrot by unanimous decision.
.jpg?w=256)
Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
4 of 5
Haris Kruskic: Who the hell knows who wins this fight? It's two brawling heavyweights looking to knock heads off bodies.
Going with Tuivasa just for the Aussie crowd to get the Shoey they all want.
Prediction: Tuivasa by KO, Rd. 1
Tom Taylor: I'm with Haris. How do you confidently make a prediction for this fight? Both Tuivasa and Rozenstruik have a habit for highlight-reel knockouts, but are also prone to terrible performances.
I'm not confident, but you came here for a prediction, so I'll go with Rozenstruik, who I consider a slightly more proven and consistent fighter than Tuivasa. The Surinamese kickboxing specialist might end it quickly, but I think it's more likely he wins a decision in a three-round fight that gets sloppier and slower as it goes on.
Prediction: Rozenstruik by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: This'll be a fun one for the fans, maybe. But it feels like one of those fights to me that everybody looks at expecting a car crash and instead gets a slow dance contest. If there are fireworks, I expect it'll be Rozenstruik who provides the most meaningful ones.
Prediction: Rozenstruik by KO, Round 2.
Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates
5 of 5
Haris Kruskic: Li Jingliang seems like one of the nicer humans on the UFC roster so naturally I hope he does well, but his first fight in two years is against a surging prospect in Carlos Prates who has eight knockouts in a row. That is not a recipe for success.
Prediction: Prates by TKO, Rd. 2
Tom Taylor: I agree with Haris' assessment of Li. He seems like a real character outside the cage, and is also typically involved in exciting fights. He's an easy guy to root for.
Unlike Haris, however, I see "The Leech" pulling this off.
Prates is on a great streak, and is clearly a serious knockout threat, but Li has an iron chin, and has been in there with some of the best welterweights in the world. His durability and experience will carry him to victory.
Prediction: Li by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: When a fight has two guys for whom a legitimate case can be made, I'll look at momentum as a tiebreaker. In this case, Prates has it, and Li doesn't. Good enough for me.
Prediction: Prates by unanimous decision
.jpg?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "McVay Explains Viral Presser")
.jpg?w=600 "Thibodeaux, Diggs Top Landing Spots 🛬")