10 Bold Predictions for the 2nd Half of 2024 MLB Season
With the 2024 MLB All-Star festivities behind us, it's time for a quick round of bold predictions before the second half of the season gets underway Friday.
What follows are 10 bold predictions for the remainder of the 2024 season, focusing mostly on individual players rather than teams since there will be plenty of postseason forecasts to comb through in the coming months.
It's a mix of award predictions, individual milestones and even some trade-deadline and extension talk, all of which is meant to set the stage for the second half.
Remember, the idea here was to be bold, but also within the realm of possibility.
Elly De La Cruz Records MLB's First 80-SB Season Since 1988
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When Ronald Acuña Jr. swiped 73 bases on his way to NL MVP honors last season, it marked the first time since Jacoby Ellsbury in 2009 that a player reached the 70-steal mark.
It's been far longer since anyone made it to 80 steals.
The last time that gaudy number of thefts was reached was all the way back in 1988, when Rickey Henderson (93) and Vince Coleman (81) were at the height of their base-stealing prowess and the stolen base was a far more prominent part of the game.
Cincinnati Reds speedster Elly De La Cruz has a chance to end the 80-steal drought if he picks things up just a bit from his current pace, as he entered the All-Star break with a MLB-leading 46 steals, putting him on track for 77 on the year.
It's worth noting, Henderson and Coleman hit a combined nine home runs while they were wreaking havoc on the base paths in 1988. De La Cruz already has 17.
Chris Cortez Is First 2024 Draft Pick to Reach the Majors
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The Los Angeles Angels have focused on college players they can rush through the minors for an immediate big league impact with their top picks in the MLB draft in recent years, and their 2024 draft class was more of the same.
Tennessee second baseman Christian Moore was their top selection at No. 10 overall, and he could make a play for the starting second base job as soon as next season, but it's another one of their 2024 draft picks who could be the first player from the class to see the majors.
Texas A&M right-hander Chris Cortez was the team's second-round pick, and he posted a 2.78 ERA and 102 strikeouts in 64.2 innings this spring pitching primarily out of the bullpen after starting the year in the rotation.
He logged a 1.18 ERA with 29 strikeouts in 15.2 innings during the postseason, showcasing a sinker that touched 100 mph and a hard-biting slider. With the prototypical late-inning repertoire and a hot hand to close out the spring, he could get a taste of the majors in the coming months.
Paul Skenes Finally Gets His No-Hitter
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Paul Skenes has already been removed from a no-hitter twice in his short time in the majors, including his final start of the first half before he was tapped to start the All-Star Game for the National League.
- May 17: 6.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K, 100 pitches
- July 11: 7.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K, 99 pitches
The 22-year-old has limited opposing hitters to a .202 average and just 48 hits in 66.2 innings over his first 11 starts, and his electric stuff has been the talk of the league since he made his MLB debut on May 11.
It's going to take him getting some quick outs in the early innings to keep his pitch count down, and might need to be a game where he doesn't rack up double-digit strikeouts for that same reason, but Skenes clearly has no-hitter stuff.
Here's predicting he finally finishes one off before the 2024 season is over.
Seattle Mariners Acquire All-Star Isaac Paredes at Trade Deadline
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It might seem like a long shot that Isaac Paredes would hit the trade block, even if the Tampa Bay Rays decide to sell after entering the break with a .500 record in fourth place in the AL East standings.
The 25-year-old is controllable through the 2027 season and he was an All-Star for the first time this year while posting a 136 OPS+ with 18 doubles, 15 home runs, 50 RBI and 2.5 WAR in 91 games.
However, the Rays are in a perpetual state of cutting costs and navigating a tight budget, and after earning a $3.4 million salary in his first year of arbitration eligibility this season his cost is set to sky-rocket this offseason.
That modest salary is already enough to make him the eighth-highest paid player on the team, and shopping him now might be the best way to maximize his value ahead of a potential payroll crunch.
Meanwhile, the Mariners rank 28th in the majors with 3.87 runs scored per game and desperately need to do something to back up one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.
The team's third basemen rank near the bottom of the league in batting average (.211, 28th), OPS (.634, 25th), home runs (7, 23rd) and RBI (27, 27th), and the the Rays and Mariners have matched up on a number of deals in recent years.
Milwaukee Brewers Acquire Garrett Crochet at Trade Deadline
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The Milwaukee Brewers traded ace Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles during the offseason, and now they are left looking for a top-of-the-rotation starter to pair with Freddy Peralta for the upcoming playoff push.
There was plenty of logic to moving Burnes, with free agency looming this offseason and no chance the budget-conscious Brewers would be able to meet his asking price, but relying on the likes of Colin Rea, Tobias Myers and Bryse Wilson to start games in the playoffs is a risky proposition.
A deal to acquire Chicago White Sox breakout ace Garrett Crochet would likely cost a wealth of young talent, but it's the perfect move for an organization where the financial side of things is a major factor.
Crochet, 25, is earning just $800,000 this year and he is controllable through the 2026 season. Even with a significant raise in his second year of arbitration eligibility this winter, he will still be earning well below market value for a top-of-the-rotation starter.
The question is whether the Brewers will be willing to battle with teams like the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers who have loaded farm systems and an equally glaring need for starting pitching help.
Clayton Kershaw Returns in August, Outperforms Every Pitcher Traded at the Deadline
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Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw underwent shoulder surgery in November, then signed a one-year, $5 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers in February that includes bonuses for every start he makes beyond five starts this year.
The 36-year-old has yet to make his 2024 debut, but he is currently on the rehab trail, tossing three no-hit innings at Triple-A Oklahoma City last Saturday, and he could return to an MLB mound sometime in August.
The three-time Cy Young winner is no longer the workhorse ace he was in the prime of his career, but he still pitched at an extremely high level when healthy last season, going 13-5 with a 2.46 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 137 strikeouts in 131.2 innings over 24 starts.
His return essentially serves as a trade-deadline pickup for the Dodgers, and don't be surprised if he outperforms all the pitchers who are on the move in trades this summer while helping to shore up a Dodgers rotation that has been banged up all year.
He will earn an extra $1 million if he makes his sixth start, an extra $1.5 million each for his seventh, eighth and ninth starts, and $2 million each for any start beyond that.
Corbin Burnes Signs a 7-Year, $255.5 Million Extension with the Baltimore Orioles
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The Baltimore Orioles got exactly the player they needed when they acquired ace Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers during the offseason, and now they should do everything in their power to make sure he sticks around well beyond the 2024 season.
The 29-year-old will be the top starting pitcher on the free-agent market this offseason thanks to another terrific season that has seen him post a 2.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 110 strikeouts in 118.2 innings while earning the starting nod in the All-Star Game.
While Grayson Rodriguez is a promising young starter and the Orioles have some other solid arms on the staff, losing Burnes would create a glaring hole atop the rotation that they simply can't fill with an in-house replacement.
On the flip side, there might not be a more attractive landing spot on a long-term deal right now than Baltimore thanks to their terrific young core, loaded farm system and wide open window of contention.
If there's mutual interest in getting a deal done before the offseason hits, a seven-year, $255.5 million contract could be a nice starting point in negotiations.
That would give Burnes a $36.5 million annual salary, eclipsing the $36 million annual value of the deal that Gerrit Cole signed with the New York Yankees.
Colt Keith Wins AL Rookie of the Year
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The overall numbers might not jump off the page, but Colt Keith is settling in nicely at the MLB level and looks poised for a huge second half.
The 22-year-old is hitting .253/.309/.394 for a 96 OPS+ with 10 doubles, nine home runs, 37 RBI and 0.3 WAR in 86 games, putting his overall output slightly below a league-average level of production.
However, he hit .370/.463/.804 with five home runs and 13 RBI over his first 13 games in July heading into the All-Star break, raising his season OPS by more than 100 points in that short span.
With Luis Gil (NYY), Colton Cowser (BAL) and Wilyer Abreu (BOS) all slowing down after hot starts and Mason Miller (OAK) not rookie-eligible according to Baseball Reference, the AL Rookie of the Year race is wide open.
If Keith picks up where he left off heading into the break, he could walk away with the hardware and make the Detroit Tigers look brilliant for signing him to a six-year, $28.6 million extension before the season started.
Chris Sale Wins Long-Awaited Cy Young Award
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There is an easy case to be made that Chris Sale is the best active pitcher who has never won a Cy Young Award, especially now that Gerrit Cole is no longer on that list after taking home AL honors last season.
Sale finished in the top six in AL balloting every year from his first season as a starter with the Chicago White Sox in 2012 through his second season as a member of the Boston Red Sox in 2018, and he was runner-up to Corey Kluber in 2017.
However, injuries derailed his career following a mediocre 2019 season, and he had pitched just 151 total innings over the previous four years when he was acquired by the Atlanta Braves during the offseason in a buy-low deal that sent Vaughn Grissom to the Red Sox.
The 35-year-old is enjoying a terrific first season in the National League, earning his first All-Star selection since 2018 while going 13-5 with a NL-best 2.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 140 strikeouts in 110 innings.
This could be the year he finally adds "Cy Young winner" to his impressive career resume.
New York Yankees Finish Behind Rival Boston Red Sox in AL East Standings
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Here's where things stood between the rival New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox on June 12, which was the 80-game mark for the Yankees:
- NYY: 49-21, +128 run differential
- BOS: 34-34, +29 run differential
And here's how things have gone in the weeks since:
- BOS: 19-8, +15 run differential
- NYY: 9-19, -22 run differential
That early success was enough for the Yankees to still hold a 3.5-game lead over the Red Sox in the standings while trailing the first-place Baltimore Orioles by one game, but few teams have been trending down more aggressively over the past month than the Yankees.
The Yankees have a 97.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, so predicting that they will miss the postseason entirely is a stretch. But it's not out of the question to think they could finish third in the AL East standings and behind their arch rivals.
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