Predicting Buy, Sell or Hold for Every MLB Team at the 2024 Trade Deadline
The 2024 MLB trade deadline is still more than a month away, and with roughly half the league's teams hovering around the .500 mark and blurring the line between contender and non-contender, there is a lot to be sorted out in the coming weeks.
That said, it's never too early to start making predictions for how things could play out on the summer trade market, and the first item in that process is determining whether each team will buy, sell or hold.
Ahead is a prediction for which category each of the league's 30 teams will fall into at this year's trade deadline, with a rundown of trade chips for sellers, roster needs for buyers and potential in-house improvements for teams that could simply opt to hold.
Who's ready for another busy MLB trade season?
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: Buy
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Orioles are already mulling potential options in center field where incumbent Cedric Mullins is hitting .189/.240/.323 for a 63 OPS+ on the year. The O's have a loaded farm system and could make a run at someone like Luis Robert Jr. or Jazz Chisholm Jr. if they decide to make center field a top priority. Either way, expect them to be adding in July.
Boston Red Sox: Sell
After a strong start to the year, the Red Sox have been playing sub-.500 baseball since the beginning of May, and while it has still been enough to stay relevant in the wild-card standings, it might be difficult to justify buying. It's unlikely they will shop any controllable pieces, but rentals like Tyler O'Neill, Nick Pivetta and Kenley Jansen could be on the move.
New York Yankees: Buy
The Yankees have looked like the team to beat in the American League over the first few months of the season, and now ace Gerrit Cole is poised to make his 2024 debut later this week, providing a massive in-house addition to an already strong roster. Another late-inning reliever will likely be one of the top items on their deadline shopping list.
Tampa Bay Rays: Sell
The Rays will likely be looking to shed salary if their fortunes don't improve in the coming weeks, and high-priced veterans Zach Eflin ($11 million), Brandon Lowe ($8.75 million), Randy Arozarena ($8.1 million) and Yandy Díaz ($8 million) could all potentially be shopped as the small-market club prioritizes lightening the payroll load.
Toronto Blue Jays: Hold
I'm not convinced the Blue Jays are going to be as quick to wave the white flag as some are expecting, especially when it comes to potentially moving Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Especially if a handful of teams on the fringe of the AL wild-card race do decide to sell, that only improves their outlook going forward with a talented team that has yet to hit its stride.
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: Sell
Anyone and everyone with trade value could be out the door for the White Sox in the midst of an all-time bad season. Luis Robert Jr. and Garrett Crochet are their most valuable trade chips, while starter Erick Fedde, reliever Michael Kopech, shortstop Paul DeJong and outfielder Tommy Pham are the most likely players to be on the move.
Cleveland Guardians: Hold
It's been years since the Guardians made a major move as buyers at the trade deadline, with the deal to land ace reliever Andrew Miller from the New York Yankees back in 2016 the last true example of a blockbuster addition. They rank 26th in the majors with a $100.2 million payroll, but that already represents an uptick from the $91.9 million mark they carried last year.
Detroit Tigers: Sell
The Tigers are 3-7 in their last 10 games and have gone from one game above .500 to three games below .500 during that span, and while the pitching staff has been a strength, they don't have the offensive pieces to legitimately contend. This team has come a long way since losing 96 games in 2022, but selling short-term pieces still makes sense. Right-hander Jack Flaherty (13 GS, 3.01 ERA, 100 K, 77.2 IP) sits atop their list of potential trade chips.
Kansas City Royals: Hold
With a starting rotation that ranks eighth in the majors with a 3.56 ERA and a bona fide offensive superstar in Bobby Witt Jr., the Royals are unrecognizable from the group that lost 106 games a year ago. However, it might still be premature to start mortgaging future assets for short-term upgrades, especially given how thin their farm system is at this point.
Minnesota Twins: Buy
Given the Guardians long history of inactivity on the summer trade market, the Twins could view the deadline as a chance to gain some ground on the AL Central leaders. With presumptive contributors Eduardo Julien and Alex Kirilloff both struggling to the point of being demoted to Triple-A, finding another bat figures to be a top priority. They could also kick the tires on a potential upgrade over Chris Paddack in the rotation.
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: Hold
With an 8-6 record and plus-13 run differential in June, the Astros are chipping away at the early hole they dug, and things would look even better if not for a handful of late-inning losses. There will be plenty of rumors surrounding free-agent-to-be Alex Bregman leading up to the deadline, but standing pat and hoping they find more consistency is the most likely outcome.
Los Angeles Angels: Sell
The Angels have some intriguing trade chips if they do decide to sell beyond just flipping rental relievers Carlos Estevez, Luis García, Hunter Strickland and Matt Moore. Starter Tyler Anderson (14 GS, 2.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 87.1 IP) has a reasonable $13 million salary for 2025, while outfielder Taylor Ward (110 OPS+, 12 HR, 36 RBI) is arbitration-eligible through 2026, but both could fetch a solid return if they are put on the trade block.
Oakland Athletics: Sell
It's unlikely anyone is going to meet the asking price on young closer Mason Miller, but setup relievers Lucas Erceg and Austin Adams could both be of interest to contending teams seeking more than just a two-month rental. The big question is whether the A's are going to make slugger Brent Rooker available, as he has proven his surprise 2023 breakout was the real deal by posting a 145 OPS+ with 13 home runs and 41 RBI.
Seattle Mariners: Buy
The Mariners have a pitching staff that is capable of leading a title run, but they will need to upgrade an offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in team OPS (.667, 25th) and runs per game (3.89, 25th). A corner outfielder looks like the most obvious potential upgrade, but expect team president Jerry Dipoto to bring his usual outside-the-box thinking to the trade market.
Texas Rangers: Hold
The Rangers are up against the $237 million luxury tax threshold, with a $232.4 million payroll that is the fifth-highest in baseball, according to Spotrac. Veteran Max Scherzer is on the rehab trail, and fellow starters Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle are also expected to return at some point. Throw in third baseman Josh Jung and reliever Josh Sborz both returning to action in the coming weeks and the Rangers biggest additions are likely to come in-house.
National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: Buy
Veteran slugger Adam Duvall is hitting .133/.198/.280 with 25 strikeouts in 81 plate appearances since Ronald Acuña Jr. suffered his season-ending torn ACL, so finding a more productive replacement in right field is becoming a priority. The Braves could also use another proven starter in the rotation as the No. 5 spot on the staff has been a revolving door.
Miami Marlins: Sell
The Marlins announced themselves as sellers in May when they shipped All-Star second baseman Luis Arraez to the San Diego Padres, and it's unlikely they will stop there in their wheeling and dealing. Lefty reliever Tanner Scott is a lock to be moved ahead of free agency, but it's Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jesús Luzardo who will be at the top of a lot of contender's wish lists.
New York Mets: Hold
The Mets are playing well enough of late to believe that they might be able to hang around in the wild-card race. Will that be reason enough to hold onto slugger Pete Alonso, who has long been viewed as a trade candidate, even if the team intends to make a push to re-sign him in free agency? Starter Luis Severino, designated hitter J.D. Martinez and outfielder Harrison Bader are also rental pieces that could fetch a decent return if they do sell.
Philadelphia Phillies: Buy
The Phillies don't have any glaring roster holes unless they decide to pursue an offensive upgrade over the light-hitting tandem of Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache in center field. They have the prospect ammunition to make a run at Luis Robert Jr. or Jazz Chisholm Jr. if that's the route they decide to go. Otherwise, a veteran bullpen arm or two might be all this roster needs.
Washington Nationals: Sell
The Nationals are one game below .500 following their sweep of the Marlins, but they still look like prime candidates to sell. Low-cost veterans Jesse Winker, Eddie Rosario, Nick Senzel and Joey Gallo were all signed to one-year deals with the goal of flipping them at the deadline, while starter Trevor Williams will be an in-demand rotation piece if he gets healthy in time. Offloading some of those veteran pieces will clear a path for James Wood and other prospects to get a look in the second half.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: Hold
The Cubs have been one of the worst teams in baseball over the past month, and if they had any viable trade chips they would have been an easy choice for the "sell" category. But who can they realistically trade? The uncertainty of Cody Bellinger's future with a $27.5 million player option for 2025 makes him a tough player to move, and the rest of the roster is signed long-term or controllable beyond this year.
Cincinnati Reds: Sell
Starter Frankie Montas, swingman Nick Martinez and reliever Emilio Pagan should all be easy pieces for the Reds to flip if they decide to do a soft sell at the deadline, but they could just as easily hold in an effort to continue building toward contention in 2025 and beyond. They could also be potential buyers if the right controllable piece becomes available, so don't be surprised if they take an opportunistic approach in July.
Milwaukee Brewers: Buy
The Brewers currently have a $107.3 million payroll, which is down from the $125.3 million figure they carried during the 2023 season, so there should be some room to add in pursuit of another NL Central title. They have done an excellent job piecing together a starting rotation behind Freddy Peralta, but another proven veteran starter could go a long way down the stretch.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Hold
The arrival of Paul Skenes has created some buzz in Pittsburgh for the first time in years, so don't expect a massive sell-off in July even if they are out of contention. Starter Martín Pérez and reliever Aroldis Chapman are both obvious candidates to be flipped, but it's just as likely they stand pat and try for a marked improvement on last year's 76-86 finish.
St. Louis Cardinals: Buy
The Cardinals have gone 20-11 since stumbling through a seven-game losing streak that ended on May 11, which is the best record in baseball during that stretch. Adding another outfielder, more starting pitching depth and bullpen help could all be on the docket if they continue to roll into July and look the part of a legitimate contender.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: Hold
After a rocky start to the year, the D-backs are 10-5 in June and once again looking like a threat to contend for a postseason spot. Getting Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodríguez healthy will go a long way in addressing their shortcomings on the pitching side of things, and it could be a quiet trade deadline after an active offseason of spending in free agency.
Colorado Rockies: Sell
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Rockies are open to trading catcher Elias Díaz, but they plan on keeping third baseman Ryan McMahon who is having the best season of his career. Other potential trade chips include starter Cal Quantrill (14 GS, 3.30 ERA, 79.0 IP) and reliever Jalen Beeks (30 G, 6 SV, 5 HLD, 3.74 ERA).
Los Angeles Dodgers: Buy
How will the Mookie Betts injury impact the Dodgers' deadline plans? Veteran Miguel Rojas will step into a large role at shortstop in the interim, but adding another middle infielder could become a top priority, especially considering that second baseman Gavin Lux has already been the weak link in the starting lineup. How much of a need pitching will be depends on who gets healthy when and how they look in their return to action.
San Diego Padres: Buy
The Padres have too much tied up in their current core to simply fold if they are within striking distance of a playoff spot, and few executives work the trade market harder than A.J. Preller. They already swung one deal to acquire Luis Arraez from the Marlins, and adding another bat to slot at designated hitter or more starting pitching depth could be next on the to-do list.
San Francisco Giants: Hold
The Giants may be playing roughly .500 baseball so far this year, but with a minus-23 run differential and a 4-15 record against clubs with a winning record this is not a very good team. Selling would be the answer if they had any obvious trade chips, but unless they can find a taker for Michael Conforto in the final year of his contract the most likely outcome is simply riding it out with the current group.
