Predicting Who Will Be MLB's Biggest Buyers and Sellers at 2024 Trade Deadline
As the July 30 trade deadline approaches, it's looking like a great time to be a seller.
There are obvious World Series contenders such as the New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves who are going to buy. The Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals and Milwaukee Brewers are also playing at extremely high levels and figure to be aggressive in pursuit of upgrades.
But with three wild-card spots and not much of a middle class this season, very few teams are altogether out.
In the American League, the Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers and Houston Astros are all within five games of the Minnesota Twins for the final wild-card spot.
Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants are tied for the final wild-card spot in the Senior Circuit, with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals and New York Mets all within five games.
So as we look toward which teams figure to be buyers and sellers this summer, you'll notice a clear trend—there are a lot more clubs likely to add than subtract.
Buyer: New York Yankees
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Obviously, the biggest addition the New York Yankees will get this summer is reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole, who is on a rehab assignment as he works his way back from right elbow inflammation.
But for as good as the Yankees' pitching has been in his absence, just getting Cole back can't be the only addition to Aaron Boone's rotation this summer.
Luis Gil has been a revelation, but the Yankees need to be careful with how much they push the Tommy John surgery veteran during the regular season. It would also be a mistake to assume the veteran trio of Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes are all going to make 30-plus starts this season.
The one-two punch of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto is about as good as it gets. But general manager Brian Cashman would be wise to add a bat—probably a corner infielder—to lengthen the lineup.
The Yankees have certainly been one of the best teams in the sport this season. But to hold off the Orioles in the AL East and return to the World Series for the first time since 2009, the Yankees likely need to make a few additions this summer.
Buyer: Kansas City Royals
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If you were skeptical before the season that the Kansas City Royals could go from 56 wins in 2023 to a playoff-caliber team in 2024, you weren't alone. Actually, you weren't alone in being wrong.
Manager Matt Quatraro's club is more than 10 games above .500, comfortably in control of the second wild-card spot in the Junior Circuit. Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is playing at an MVP level, while franchise icon Salvador Perez continues to be one of the more productive catchers in baseball.
Led by Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo, the Royals have the type of starting rotation duo that could make them dangerous in a short playoff series.
MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe have OPS marks below .630, so corner outfield appears to be the biggest need that general manager J.J. Picollo needs to address. Doing so could allow the Royals to reach the playoffs for the first time since they won the World Series in 2015.
Seller: New York Mets
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The New York Mets may not be mathematically out of the NL wild-card race, but there's enough evidence for president of baseball operations David Stearns to take advantage of a seller's market and continue to set the team up well for the future.
Obviously, three-time All-Star Pete Alonso, one of the game's elite power producers, will be the name that's most watched in Flushing. As a rental, Alonso should be of interest to a slew of AL teams, including the Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians. The Mets could get a respectable return for Alonso now and still have a chance to re-sign him in the winter, even if things like that rarely pan out.
But beyond Alonso, the Mets have a slew of other veterans on expiring contracts who they can trade in for lottery tickets—Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, J.D. Martinez and Sean Manaea among them.
New York may not get any top-100 prospects back in trades this summer, but as the Royals showed netting Ragans for Aroldis Chapman last summer, you can sometimes uncover some hidden gems when you trade with teams desperate to make a World Series run.
Buyer: Philadelphia Phillies
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The window is never going to be more open for the Philadelphia Phillies than it is now. They have baseball's best record and a team full of players who are in their early 30s. And if that wasn't enough, any team led by president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is going to be aggressive.
While he's an excellent defender, Johan Rojas' bat hasn't taken enough of a step forward offensively for the Phillies to justify giving him everyday at-bats in center field. Brandon Marsh also mashes righties but struggles against lefties. So adding an outfield bat—ideally a right-handed-hitting one—would appear to be the No. 1 priority.
Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox would be the ideal target, but it may take the Phillies parting with last year's first-round pick, shortstop Aidan Miller, to obtain him. If Robert's price proves to be too high, Randy Arozarena, Tyler O'Neill and Taylor Ward are other potential fits.
The Phillies could try to add a closer, although with José Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering, they don't need to add to the bullpen. It would be more of a case of the rich getting richer.
Buyer: Seattle Mariners
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With Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller and George Kirby atop their rotation and Andrés Muñoz anchoring the bullpen, the Seattle Mariners have the pitching to make a deep playoff run.
Now, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto needs to build a lineup to match the pitching prowess on the fly.
Obviously, the Mariners need more from Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford. But the offseason additions of Mitch Haniger, Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver have all been flops, and that's why despite leading the AL West, they have one of the worst offenses in the league.
Maybe more than any other GM, Dipoto needs to make a big splash this summer, perhaps in the form of Alonso. Seattle needs to add multiple bats, but Alonso would be a tremendous headliner.
Seller: Chicago White Sox
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The 2024 Chicago White Sox are one of the worst teams in modern baseball history, and what's scary is they don't have a ton of roster pieces that would be of interest to contenders.
Obviously, the aforementioned Robert is going to be coveted by teams looking to make a splash in the outfield. On one hand, he's only 26, and with a pair of affordable club options, the White Sox could control him through the 2027 season.
On the other hand, Robert has played more than 100 games in a season just once, and his contractual situation may allow the White Sox to maximize his return currently.
Right-handed pitcher Erick Fedde has a 3.27 ERA in 13 starts this year after an extremely successful season in the KBO last year. The 31-year-old will have plenty of suitors, but it's unclear how much of a return the White Sox will get for him. If general manager Chris Getz doesn't feel like he's getting an appropriate return, the White Sox could hold onto Fedde, who will make just $7.5 million in 2025.
Left-hander Garrett Crotchet is having a tremendous season, but he's only 25, so an argument could be made for trying to build around him. However, he is a veteran of Tommy John surgery, and given that he can't become a free agent until after the 2026 season, the former first-round pick's trade value may never be higher.
The White Sox do have the No. 3 overall farm system in baseball, according to B/R's Joel Reuter, so there is some help on the way. But right now, things are really bleak at the MLB level.
Buyer: Milwaukee Brewers
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The national perspective on the Milwaukee Brewers wasn't kind entering the 2024 season. Manager Craig Counsell left for the Chicago Cubs. Former AL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes was traded to the Baltimore Orioles. Brandon Woodruff was known to be out for the season as he recovered from shoulder surgery, and All-Star closer Devin Williams was lost for "around three months" with multiple stress fractures in his back.
And yet, the Brewers find themselves comfortably in first place in the NL Central, with first-year skipper Pat Murphy's club having a plus-61 run differential that trails only the Phillies and Dodgers among teams in the Senior Circuit.
The return of Williams at some point in the second half of the summer would be massive, because he would rejoin a bullpen where both Trevor Megill and Bryan Hudson have been dominant. That may be the big addition to the bullpen, but Milwaukee remains thin in the starting rotation behind Freddy Peralta, with general manager Matt Arnold probably needing to add multiple arms.
Milwaukee's offense has been much better than expected, as it is third in the NL in runs scored. But while star catcher William Contreras, third baseman Joey Ortiz and 20-year-old outfielder Jackson Chourio figure to be part of the team's long-term future, this is a veteran lineup that might not have a better chance to win than now.
Former NL MVP Christian Yelich is 32. Slugging shortstop Willy Adames can become a free agent at the end of the season. First baseman Rhys Hoskins is 31, and has a player opt-out available next winter.
So the Brewers shouldn't make the mistake of assuming they are going to be in this same place next year. Adding multiple starting pitchers and a corner outfield/DH type would help them hold on and win the NL Central, and potentially do damage in the postseason.
Buyer: Los Angeles Dodgers
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When you have Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman at the top of your lineup—not to mention Will Smith and Teoscar Hernández playing at very high levels—you're World Series-or-bust.
Los Angeles Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has a chance this summer to augment one of the most talented rosters in baseball to help avoid another disappointing postseason exit.
Corner outfield feels like an obvious need, as the Dodgers can't rely on some combination of Chris Taylor and Jason Heyward to help them make a World Series run. As with all contenders, the Dodgers could probably afford to add another high-end reliever, and reacquiring franchise legend Kenley Jansen from the Boston Red Sox is going to be a popular idea.
The biggest question is what do the Dodgers do in the starting rotation?
Walker Buehler is back from his second Tommy John surgery but has struggled thus far. Three-time NL Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw hasn't yet pitched this season as he recovers from shoulder surgery. Bobby Miller looked like a budding superstar before going down with right shoulder inflammation in April. And for as well as Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Gavin Stone have pitched, can you go into October with those as your top three starters?
Friedman has never been afraid of adding quantity, aware that there will be injuries and underperformances. Is there a scenario where Buehler heats up, while both Kershaw and Miller return from the IL and pitch at a high level, leaving the Dodgers with a surplus of pitching? Sure.
But things rarely go perfectly according to plan, and in a year when anything short of a parade float will be disappointing, the Dodgers can't just hope for the best with their internal rotation pieces and bypass a chance to add another arm this summer.
Seller: Miami Marlins
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We don't have to wonder whether the Miami Marlins will be sellers: President of baseball operations Peter Bendix waved the white flag on May 4 when he traded reigning NL batting champion Luis Arráez to the Padres.
Now, it's just a matter of how much of a teardown the Fish will do, or more accurately, how much else they have remaining on their roster that would really move the needle for contenders.
By all accounts, left-hander Jesús Luzardo is going to be moved, but after posting a 3.48 ERA and 3.40 FIP across 50 starts between 2022 and 2023, he has 5.30 ERA in 2024. Granted, Luzardo's 3.87 FIP suggests better results are coming, but if Luzardo doesn't get going, he's still only 26 years old and can't become a free agent until after 2026. It feels like as things stand, the Marlins would be selling low on Luzardo.
Miami could try to sell high on reliever Declan Cronin, who won't even become arbitration eligible until 2027. Closer Tanner Scott will certainly be dealt, but the return won't be earth-shattering since he's a rental. Elsewhere, Josh Bell and Bryan De La Cruz could also be moved but wouldn't bring back franchise-altering prospects.
So again, the Marlins will sell. Exactly how much they'll get back is less clear.
Buyer: San Diego Padres
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How good are the San Diego Padres? Well, seemingly good enough to grab one of the three wild-card spots in the NL, and that may be all the invitation president of baseball operations A.J. Preller needs to believe his team could crash the party if it sneaks into the postseason.
Preller added Dylan Cease in a trade with the White Sox just days before the Padres' season began, and the former AL Cy Young runner-up has been the best starter for San Diego this season.
The always aggressive executive also struck on the opportunity to acquire Arráez from the Miami Marlins in May, and he's hit over .350 since putting on the brown and gold. After hitting on those two moves, don't expect Preller to slow down.
Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last week that the Padres have interest in going back to the well with the White Sox and acquiring left-hander Garrett Crochet. Whether that specific trade materializes or not, it's evidence that Preller, as always, plans to go down swinging in his pursuit of a World Series.
Assuming the Padres believe Manny Machado is going to play third base in a majority of their remaining games this season, adding a slugger who can slot in at DH would seem to make sense.
The aforementioned J.D. Martinez would make some sense, although Justin Turner—if he heats back up—would give them someone who could take down some corner infield starts if need be and wouldn't necessarily be entrenched at DH. Given how all-in Preller always is, the Padres taking a swing at trying to trade for Alonso or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. probably can't be entirely dismissed either.
Buyer: Houston Astros
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Frankly, the trade deadline would be a lot more interesting if the Houston Astros sold, because then Alex Bregman, Justin Verlander, Ryan Pressly, Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker would all become among the top targets on the market.
However, Astros general manager Dana Brown has repeatedly stated he doesn't see the team selling at the trade deadline, and given that the Astros are still within striking distance in the AL West, why would they?
Bregman can become a free agent after this season, while Tucker and Valdez can after 2025, so there may be some sort of retool coming in Houston. But it wouldn't hurt to try to squeeze out one more deep playoff run in 2024 while you still have all those names mentioned—along with the likes of Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña, Yordan Alvarez and Josh Hader—together.
Assuming the Astros don't believe José Abreu is on the cusp of a breakout, first base is probably the most pressing need. Alonso would fit that bill, as would former NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt if the Cardinals end up selling or Christian Walker if things go further south for the Diamondbacks. Bell of the Marlins—who seems to be traded every summer—might be a more realistic fallback.
Seller: Tampa Bay Rays
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Tampa Bay is only a few games under .500, but injuries have decimated the Rays pitching staff this season and they have a minus-62 run differential. When you're a low-budget team, sometimes you have to be honest with yourself, particularly when you have the chance to take advantage of a weak trade market and restock the young talent in your organization.
Randy Arozarena is the biggest name on the Rays that will be talked about as a trade candidate. But the former ALCS MVP is having the worst season of his career and can't become a free agent until after the 2026 season, so president of baseball operations Erik Neander might not be inclined to move Arozarena this summer.
Still, Bob Nightengale of USA Today previously reported that the Braves (more on them in a minute) were "keeping a close eye" on Zach Eflin. The 30-year-old righty recently returned from his second injured-list stint of the season, and staying healthy has been his biggest issue, as Eflin has made more than 23 starts in his career just three times.
However, he has postseason experience, finished sixth in AL Cy Young Award voting last year and is in the second year of a three-year, $40 million deal. Even with questions about his durability, there will be quite a bit of interest in Eflin this summer.
Closer Pete Fairbanks and left-handed reliever Garrett Cleavinger are among the other interesting trade candidates on Tampa Bay's roster. Also, if the first base market doesn't pan out as expected—let's say Alonso moves, but Goldschmidt, Walker and Guerrero stay put—last year's AL batting champion Yandy Díaz would be someone to watch if he rebounds from a disappointing start to 2024.
Buyer: Baltimore Orioles
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Whether the Baltimore Orioles catch the Yankees in the AL East or not, they are going to be a playoff team, and one that has legitimate World Series aspirations with Burnes at the top of their rotation.
So where do the Orioles need to improve to be more dangerous in October?
Closer would seem to be the obvious answer. In the absence of Félix Bautista—who is out for the season with Tommy John surgery—Baltimore has turned to nine-time All-Star Craig Kimbrel. The 36-year-old has been on a bit of a roller coaster, and given how poorly he pitched for the Phillies last year in the playoffs, and in his career as a whole, they can't go into the postseason with him as their closer.
Baltimore general manager Mike Elias has built the type of farm system that could make a competitive offer for Mason Miller or Ryan Helsley, if either the A's or Cardinals would be willing to trade their star closers. If not, the aforementioned Scott, Fairbanks and Jansen could also be late-game relievers available on the market.
With such a surplus of position talent, you do also wonder if Elias would consider making a major move for a controllable starting pitcher. That would give them another big arm to go with Burnes, Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez, which would be particularly useful if Baltimore gets in a seven-game series. Also, a pitcher under contract for 2025 would serve as insurance if the Orioles aren't able to re-sign Burnes after the season.
Buyer: Atlanta Braves
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Three years ago, the Atlanta Braves won the World Series after losing Ronald Acuña Jr. to a season-ending ACL tear. However unlikely they are to emulate that success, the Braves will try to make another deep run without the reigning NL MVP and ace Spencer Strider, who have both been lost for the year.
The good news for the Braves is that they can realistically expect better results from Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II and Orlando Arcia than what they've received to this point. Once that happens, Atlanta should have a pretty strong lineup when you factor in how productive DH Marcell Ozuna has been, and that All-Star catcher Sean Murphy is back after missing close to two months with a left oblique strain.
Also good news: Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is about as good as it gets. Three years ago, he acquired the trio of Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson and Eddie Rosario to replace Acuña, and will likely add multiple corner outfielders again this year.
The Braves also could stand to add another pitcher who could take the ball for them in a postseason game, because for as well as Max Fried, Chris Sale and Reynaldo López have pitched, durability is a concern with this rotation.
Even if the Braves' streak of six consecutive NL East titles is snapped this year, they will almost certainly be the top wild-card team in the Senior Circuit. Obviously, losing Acuña and Strider is devastating, but it may not be disqualifying if the Braves hit on a few trades.
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