B/R Staff: Predicting 2024 NBA Champions and Finals MVP
The 2024 NBA Finals are here. And it's likely our most obvious example of "best player vs. best team" since LeBron James faced the Golden State Warriors in four straight championships.
This time around, it's Luka Dončić and the Dallas Mavericks against perhaps the deepest team in the league, one that was a statistical juggernaut in the regular season.
The Boston Celtics had the fifth-best regular-season point differential in NBA history. They had seven more wins than the next closest team, and they went 12-2 en route to the Finals.
But Boston wasn't really tested in the first three rounds (Jimmy Butler, Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen and Tyrese Haliburton all missed postseason games against them). Dallas, meanwhile, had to beat three different 50-win teams.
The Celtics wrapping things up early also brings up the "rest vs. rust" conversation. Will Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and the rest of the team be ready for the difference between Dončić and what they've faced to this point?
Will the Mavericks superstar be able to handle the wealth of defensive options (including Tatum, Brown, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday) Boston has to throw at him?
Who'll win the series? And who will be crowned Finals MVP?
Bleacher Report's NBA staff has the answers to those questions and more in the predictions below.
Celtics Have Earned 'Favorite' Status, but the Margin Is Narrow
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The Boston Celtics will win the 2023-24 NBA Finals, but it won't be an easy series.
The Dallas Mavericks will be a tough opponent with the elite scoring of Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, the size of Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II and wild cards such as P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr.
They have exceeded expectations, but since the trade deadline, their roster just makes sense. Dallas has long athletes who can defend to complement their power duo, and that should be enough to get at least two wins in the Finals.
However, the Celtics have more experience and a high-powered offense, with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown matching the 50-ish points per game from Dončić and Irving. The Dallas pair create more for others than Boston's, but the Celtics also have a proven champion in Jrue Holiday. While he isn't as dynamic offensively as Irving, he's one of the best point-of-attack defenders in the NBA and a scoring threat.
Boston also has experienced, polished role players such as Derrick White and Al Horford, who almost always seem to make late-game-winning plays.
The Celtics may be vulnerable initially, as Kristaps Porziņģis returns from a calf strain. While the seven-footer adds a unique dimension, he may take away from what Boston has done well the last couple of series with Horford. That's why the Mavericks need to strike early in the series. Once Boston integrates Porziņģis, Dallas will have less of an advantage with Gafford and Lively.
On occasion, Boston's offense can get too iso-heavy, but that's also an issue for Dallas. The difference is that Dončić and Irving are more likely to create an opportunity for others than Tatum and Brown. Will that concern be enough to swing the series? Possibly so.
The Celtics should be considered the favorite, but the margin is narrow. Look for a six-game series (closer to seven than five) with Tatum earning NBA Finals MVP.
Champion: Celtics in 6
Finals MVP: Jayson Tatum
—Eric Pincus
Signs Point to a Long Series
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This series looks great on paper and could be even better in practice.
Dallas didn't quite have the season Boston did, but the Mavericks were scorching-hot down the stretch, have been mostly awesome in the playoffs and boast a truly terrifying late-game combo in Luka Dončić and Kryie Irving.
If the late-game lethargy that has previously plagued the Shamrocks resurfaces, it could prove a fatal flaw.
And yet, there aren't good reasons to go against Boston beyond the fact that its recent postseason trips—with not identical personnel, by the way—have tended to produce disappointment.
This season, though, the Celtics were the best team over the 82-game marathon and have maintained that dominance while needing just 14 games to traverse the Eastern Conference's side of the bracket. They have star power and depth, offensive efficiency and defensive resistance, a horde of scoring threats and multiple stingy defenders to throw at both of the Mavericks' stars.
If Kristaps Porziņģis appears rust-free despite being sidelined since the first round by a calf injury, there's a non-zero chance Boston finishes this in a hurry. It's more likely, though, that the Mavs get a game or two based on their improved defense and great-under-the-spotlight stars, forcing Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to perform under pressure in ways they haven't always before, finally bringing banner No. 18 to Boston.
Going with the obvious choice should feel more comfortable than it does, but this stage has gotten the better of Tatum before. Still, he's older now, plus more efficient and surrounded by more help than ever, so he'll be up to the test this time around.
Plus, he'll have no shortage of chances to impress as Boston's likeliest leading scorer and someone who will spend a not-insignificant amount of time defending or at least switching onto both Dončić and Irving.
Champion: Celtics in 6
Finals MVP: Jayson Tatum
—Zach Buckley
Tatum's Time to Shine
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I'm going with the Celtics in 7, but it was tough to look past the Luka Dončić of it all, which made a Mavs-in-6 pick tantalizing. He's the best, most unsolvable player in the series, and the team that has that guy tends to win.
That said, it's still Boston for me. The Celtics have the personnel to switch, blitz and drop against Dončić, and they'll surely have to employ all of those looks to slow him down.
Boston may have to stray from its preferred tactics—never leaving corner shooters, rarely doubling the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll—because of the unique challenges the Slovenian presents, but this team is better equipped than any other to force Dallas into uncomfortable territory.
Kristaps Porzingis' return gives the Celtics valuable rim protection and a release valve that could prevent their most concerning flaw from cropping up on the other end. When Boston struggles, it tends to involve stagnant offense. KP's ability to punish mismatches in the post is an ideal fallback plan and looms as major X-factor.
Jayson Tatum is a relatively easy Finals MVP selection, though his tendency to rely on jump shots adds an uncomfortable amount of variance to his game. He still projects to be the Celtics' most important player, though.
While Jalen Brown, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White all have a shot at the award, the best way to frame the Tatum pick is probably to point out that it's almost impossible to imagine Boston winning the title without him having a massive series.
Since we're going with a Celtics win, Tatum has to be the guy.
Champion: Celtics in 7
Finals MVP: Jayson Tatum
—Grant Hughes
It All Comes Down to Stopping Luka
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The fate of this series feels like it will hinge on how the Celtics predominantly defend Luka Dončić—and how effective that primary approach ends up being.
Will they blitz? Go with straight-up doubles? Tether Jaylen Brown to him? Or maybe Jrue Holiday? Will they have Jayson Tatum (or perhaps Holiday) guard Dallas' bigs so they can more liberally switch screens? Do they refrain from involving Holiday too much so he can check Kyrie Irving? Will Dončić bring out Al Horford or Kristaps Porziņģis far enough and target them accordingly? How much does that even matter? Could the Mavs tempt the Celtics into downsizing, without a true big, by leaning on Maxi Kleber-at-the-5 arrangements?
It says a lot about the defensive depth and versatility of Boston that no singular approach or outcome feels particularly fraught or flawed. And that, to me, will be the difference.
The Celtics may incur wilder swings on offense, but they have more levers to pull, more buttons to press and higher peaks to explore at the other end, which could lead to a quick series finish.
As for Finals MVP, Tatum is the "easy" pick. And, well, he might get it. I also find myself uniquely pulled to Dončić, even though I have the Celtics winning it all, mostly because he's Dončić.
Inevitably, though, I'm inclined to roll the dice on Brown. He should see the most time on Dončić, and that, coupled with his second option's workload on offense, feels like it'll resonate among voters.
Champion: Celtics in 5
Finals MVP: Jaylen Brown
—Dan Favale
Kristaps Porziņģis' Return Is a Big Deal
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This may not have been the NBA Finals we expected, but it's definitely one basketball fans should be excited about.
The Boston Celtics are obviously the favorite here after stomping through the regular season with 64 wins and the best offense in NBA history. Normally possessing a scoring attack this good would cause the other end of the ball to suffer, yet they ranked No. 2 in defense only behind the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Of course, ask Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving just how much the Wolves defense bothered them. If ever there was a David to take down Goliath, it's Dončić, a player we knew would be on this stage eventually. The only players in NBA history who have averaged more points per game in the playoffs than the five-time All-Star are Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain.
Dončić just happens to be paired with one of the best No. 2 options in Finals history, as Kyrie Irving averaged 30.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.8 steals on 50.8/46.7/95.2 shooting splits over the last five games of the 2016 Finals. Add in role players who complement their strengths and a defense that can hound opposing stars, and the Mavs have more than earned their spot here.
For Boston, the expected return of Kristaps Porziņģis for Game 1 is a big deal. The Celtics starting five of Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Al Horford only carried a net rating of plus-1.3 during the regular season. Swapping Porziņģis in for Horford saw this same lineup jump all the way to plus-12.0.
History also isn't on the Mavericks side, as no No. 5 seed has ever won a championship.
After Brown took home Eastern Conference Finals MVP honors, it's Tatum's turn for some hardware. After playing through a wrist injury in the 2022 Finals against the Golden State Warriors that limited his production, a healthy Tatum should be hungry and motivated to lead the Celtics to their record-setting 18th championship.
Champion: Celtics in 6
Finals MVP: Jayson Tatum
—Greg Swartz
Boston Won't Have Best Player or Best Duo...but It Won't Matter
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Just last week, I predicted the Mavericks would win this in seven.
Luka Dončić is on a tear and nearing the age when these kinds of all-time talents tend to win their first championships. Nikola Jokić, LeBron James and Michael Jordan all capped their age-27 campaigns with their first rings. The Mavs star is coming off his age-24 campaign and just averaged 32.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 4.6 threes and 2.2 steals in a conference finals against the league's best defense.
It feels like all the momentum is with him and a supporting cast that includes an inspired Kyrie Irving and tons of size and defense from Daniel Gafford, P.J. Washington, Derrick Jones Jr. and Dereck Lively II.
But this series is close enough to motivate a switched prediction in just one week.
Boston doesn't have the best player in the series. It doesn't have the best duo. Any combination of Celtics falls shy of what Luka and Kyrie are doing right now. But the Celtics are the better team.
Boston's eight-man rotation is stronger than any other in the league. It can play big, small or positionless. It has the best defensive backcourt in the league with Brown and Holiday. The addition of Kristaps Porziņģis' shooting and rim protection was the perfect complement to the wing duo of Tatum and Brown.
Teams with statistical profiles like this rarely end their seasons with a loss, and Boston shouldn't either.
The Celtics should (and I say should intentionally, because this really does feel like one of the hardest series to call in recent memory) win in seven, and Tatum will likely be the leading scorer for the team effort that could end this absurd run from Dončić.
If those dominoes fall, Tatum will end the first seven years of his career with 115 playoff games, five conference finals, two Finals and one Finals MVP.
Champion: Celtics in 7
Finals MVP: Jayson Tatum
—Andy Bailey
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