Astros Will Still Make Playoffs, White Sox Will Lose 120 Games and More MLB Hot Takes
Major League Baseball's 162-game regular-season marathon is roughly 20 percent complete, which is the perfect time for some updated hot takes.
It's deep enough into the campaign to have some sort of feel of what to expect the rest of the way. But, in reality, things are still just heating up and could turn on a dime.
At this time last year, eventual AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson was batting around .170, eventual NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell had an ERA north of 5.00 and the NLCS-bound Philadelphia Phillies were four games below .500.
So, let's get spicy with some slightly-outlandish-but-sorta-realistic hot-take predictions for the nearly five months still left in the season.
Both Arizona and Houston Will Still Make the Playoffs
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From a purely "to make the playoffs" betting line perspective, this is a very mild hot take.
Despite starting out 7-19 and currently sitting at 12-22, the Houston Astros still have +110 odds of reaching the postseason. 15-20 Arizona is a little less likely at +180, but still hardly a long shot.
Parlay the two and you're merely getting +488 odds.
For what it's worth, those lines pretty well jive with FanGraphs' playoff odds, where Arizona is given a 26.7 percent chance of reaching the postseason, while Houston is at 50.4 percent.
If you prefer Baseball Reference's projections, though, it's a much different story.
They give Houston just a 36.5 percent chance of making the playoffs (implied line of +174), and have Arizona at a meager 6.4 percent (implied line of +1460). Combine those two lines in a parlay, and now you're talking about greater than 40-1 odds.
Granted, Baseball Reference also gives Milwaukee a 97.6 percent chance of making the playoffs. Might want to take those projections with a grain of salt.
All the same, teams at least five games below .500 roughly 30 games into the season do tend to stay there.
Of the 10 who were at least three games below .500 on May 4 of last season, the only one that played better than .500 baseball the rest of the way was the Cincinnati Reds, going 69-62 after starting 13-18—and still missing the playoffs by a two game margin.
Of course, there are exceptions to the rule. Seattle in 2022 was a big one. Washington in 2019 was an even bigger one. And both Arizona and Houston have more than enough talent to replicate those rallies from a slow start, provided the pitching staffs eventually get healthy and star players like Corbin Carroll, Josh Hader and Alex Bregman turn things around.
Either Oakland or Washington Will Post a Winning Record
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Heading into the season, four teams were very clearly expected to be bottom-feeders: The A's and the White Sox in the American League; the Nationals and the Rockies in the National League. Thus far, Colorado and Chicago have lived down to those expectations and then some.
But after initially looking awful for the first 10 days or so, Oakland and Washington have flipped the script and actually looked—dare we say it?—competent.
The A's went 1-7 out of the gate and looked every bit as bad as they were last season, allowing more than 2.5 runs for each one they scored in those first eight games. Since then, however, they've gone 16-11, still struggling to put runs on the board, but suddenly getting stingy on defense. Mason Miller has gotten a lot of the attention, but the bullpen has been masterful as a whole.
It's plausible—if not highly likely—that bullpen will begin a lengthy implosion as early as tomorrow. But it's also plausible that Shea Langeliers, Ryan Noda, Seth Brown and some of the other regulars start to actually hit the ball on a semi-regular basis and they tread enough water to win 82.
Of the two, though, it's much more likely that Washington cobbles together a winning record after going 17-17 through its first 34 games.
CJ Abrams started to break out last year and has emerged as a very real threat for a 30/30 campaign. Jacob Young is a speed demon on the basepaths and a solid centerfielder. Former Reds Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel are classic "could be clutch if they stay healthy" players. James Wood has to be getting the call up from Triple-A any day now. And save for Patrick Corbin sputtering through a fifth consecutive expensively disappointing season, the pitching has been good enough to get by.
Same as Oakland, it could all fall apart at a moment's notice. However, of the teams that were supposed to be terrible in 2024, Washington was the one that felt like it might just be one year away from turning things around after all of the "trading All-Stars for prospects" it did over the past few years. Maybe the Nats have re-arrived a bit ahead of schedule.
White Sox Will Set MLB's Single-Season Loss Record...for No Good Reason
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The Oakland Athletics were an unmitigated disaster last season, tanking their way to 112 losses.
We've seen worse, though. The all-time record for losses in a single season belongs to the expansion year New York Mets in 1962, when they went 42-120 in year No. 1 of an extremely painful first six seasons in the majors.
That is the milestone in futility the 2024 Chicago White Sox could be destined to reach.
Chicago started out 3-22, which was the worst 25-game start in franchise history and almost the worst in MLB history. Only the 1988 Baltimore Orioles have ever done worse, starting 2-23 en route to 107 losses.
The White Sox have already been swept not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, but six times, including a pair of four-game series. They are almost single-handedly making the rest of the AL Central look incredible by going a combined 2-18 against Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City and Minnesota.
And as bad as they are now, they might be even worse in a few months, as they have eight unrestricted free agents and two players (Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez) with hefty 2025 club options who they will be looking to trade away ahead of the deadline. If they also trade away Luis Robert Jr.—who is owed $15M next season before $20M club options in each of 2026 and 2027—in their quest to further upgrade an already strong farm system, things could get all sorts of ugly for the Southsiders this fall.
Ready for the really sad part?
The White Sox are ineligible for the 2025 draft lottery.
In case the lottery itself wasn't enough of a tanking deterrent, an additional failsafe of sorts was included in which large-market teams—defined as those who contribute to revenue sharing as opposed to those who benefit from revenue sharing—are prohibited from picking in the lottery (top six) in consecutive years. And because the White Sox will have the fifth pick in the upcoming draft, the best they can possibly do in 2025 is the 10th overall pick, even if they lose more than 120 games.
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Two Small-Market, Second-Year Relievers Will Receive AL Cy Young Votes...
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You already know one of the two minimally-experienced relievers we're referring to here, as we've all spent much of the first 20ish percent of the season marveling at Oakland's Mason Miller.
Miller only throws two pitches—a blistering four-seamer and a devastating slider—and they are equally deadly. After his 11th consecutive scoreless outing Wednesday against Pittsburgh, he has an identical 48.6 percent whiff rate against each pitch.
Let the record show that a nearly 50 percent whiff rate on fastballs is, to use a highly technical term, cuckoo bananas. However, these things happen when you can touch 105 MPH on the radar gun.
The other reliever in question here is Kansas City's James McArthur, who has emerged as a lethal closer in his own right.
Will Smith was supposed to be the Royals' ninth-inning guy, but that sure was a short-lived experiment. The three-time reigning World Series champ allowed six earned runs in his first three outings and quickly lost his job. In McArthur's first nine appearances after getting the gig, though, he tossed 10.2 scoreless innings for seven saves and a win.
To be clear, he is nowhere near the flamethrower that Miller is. McArthur's sinker maxes out at 96 MPH, doesn't induce many swings and misses and he only throws it about one-third of the time, mixing it in pretty evenly with his curveball and slider.
It's working, though. And if he saves 35-40 games while the Royals pull off the most incredible one-year turnaround in MLB history, he'll get some Cy Young votes. (Though, teammate Seth Lugo would be getting significantly more of those votes as things currently stand.)
The AL Cy Young Recipient Will Be Seattle's George Kirby
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Could drastically reduce the Scoville Heat Units on this hot take by simply stating that a Seattle Mariner will win the AL Cy Young. It would still be a little spicy with Detroit's Tarik Skubal and Baltimore's Corbin Burnes presently the co-favorites, but including Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller as options here would take the odds from roughly +2500 to more like +450.
But where's the fun in that?
Of course, this would have been much spicier a few weeks ago, when George Kirby was fresh off getting shelled by both the Guardians and Blue Jays.
Even then, the peripherals loved Kirby. He had an 8.16 ERA through three starts, but his FIP was just 2.86—a product of both his minuscule walk rate and his ability to keep the ball in the yard. He just had a few unlucky patches and was bound to turn a corner eventually.
Which he already did, posting a cumulative line of 24.0 IP, 16 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 28 K across his next three starts against Cincinnati, Colorado and Arizona in bringing his ERA down to 3.76.
That's still a pretty bloated number compared to what it *should* be, though.
Kirby's 2.07 FIP ranks among the best in the majors, as does his 10.25 K/BB. And that latter data point is nothing new, as he led the majors with a 9.05 K/BB ratio last season, issuing just 19 walks in more than 190 innings pitched. He also entered 2024 with a career FIP of 3.20 and ought to be able to get that ERA down into the low 3s or even the high 2s over the next few months.
If he does so while Seattle wins the AL West, that could be the recipe for a Cy Young trophy, which would be just the third in franchise history, joining Felix Hernandez in 2010 and Randy Johnson in 1995.
At Least 1 of the Rookies of the Year Isn't Currently in the Big Leagues
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In each league, there are a handful of rookies who have gotten out to impressive starts.
On the AL side of things, it has been mostly hitters. Baltimore's Colton Cowser was red hot in April. Boston's Wilyer Abreu is thriving. And while neither Evan Carter nor Wyatt Langford has been quite as impactful as the reigning champs were hoping for, they still rank among the favorites to win AL ROY.
In the NL, it's mostly pitching. Shota Imanaga has been lights out for the Cubs, as has Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the Dodgers if you take out that rough first inning against the Padres in South Korea. And Pirates rookie Jared Jones seems to go viral in every start he makes for all the filth he's been slinging.
However, no one has exactly emerged as the clear favorite, making it plausible that a current minor leaguer ends up winning both ROYs—provided promotions happen sooner rather than later.
In the AL, the two clear candidates are hitters who already had a cup of coffee in the majors—Baltimore's Jackson Holliday and Tampa Bay's Junior Caminero. Holliday's two-week stint in the bigs last month was brutal, but the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball should be back soon. And goodness only knows what the Rays are waiting for with Caminero, as he's slugging well north of .700 in Triple-A and could help them salvage their rough start to the year.
In the NL, neither of the two clear candidates has yet to make his MLB debut, but it's got to be coming soon. Rumors have been swirling that Pittsburgh's Paul Skenes might get the call for a start next week against the Cubs, while Washington's James Wood has continued to rake at Triple-A Rochester after a fantastic showing in spring training. The Nationals' refusal to call him up even with Lane Thomas, Joey Gallo and Victor Robles all currently on the IL is baffling, but his arrival should be imminent.
And if one of those current minor leaguers wins Rookie of the Year, it wouldn't be the first time.
2022 NL ROY Michael Harris II didn't make his MLB debut until late May. 2019 AL ROY Yordan Alvarez played the first game of his career in early June. And in 2016, Gary Sanchez almost won AL ROY, despite playing in just one game prior to August.
Mookie Betts Will Be the First Runner-Up in an MVP Vote for 4th Time in His Career
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Mookie Betts has been preposterously good, even by his seven-time All-Star standards.
The homers have cooled off considerably since he mashed four in his first five games, but he entered Friday leading the majors in each of: hits, walks, runs, batting average, on-base percentage, OPS, OPS+ and total bases.
Not too shabby.
Both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference have had Betts alone in first place in the majors in wins above replacement on a daily basis since the Seoul Series, and by a considerable margin as of late.
Basically, if you had to pick an NL MVP today, Betts is the indisputable choice.
Here's the thing, though: Betts was also really freaking good last year, and he didn't even receive a first-place vote for NL MVP. Ronald Acuña Jr. ran away with that trophy behind his historic 41 HR, 73 SB campaign, leaving Betts to settle for second place in the MVP vote—as was also the case in 2016 when Mike Trout won it and in 2020 when Freddie Freeman won it.
And if 41 HR and 73 SB was enough for Acuña to unanimously win the MVP last year, what do you suppose is going to happen if Elly De La Cruz manages to even remotely maintain his current 162-game pace of 41 HR and 96 SB?
EDLC will presumably cool off to some extent. If he stays healthy, though, he's likely going to become the first player to steal 80 bases in a season since both Vince Coleman and Rickey Henderson did so in 1988. He also will almost certainly join Acuña and Henderson (who did it twice) as the only players in MLB history with at least 20 home runs and 70 stolen bases in a single season.
Unless Betts flirts with a .400 season or something equally ridiculous, a 30/80ish type of season from De La Cruz will probably be enough to make Betts a first runner-up for MVP yet again. There is also his teammate, Shohei Ohtani, who is going to be competing with Betts for the top of the leaderboard in various offensive categories all season long.
Who's Ready for a Repeat of the 1995 World Series?
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The National League portion of projecting a repeat of the 1995 World Series is anything but a hot take.
The Atlanta Braves won that championship nearly three decades ago and are—as they were to open the season—pretty much neck-and-neck with the Los Angeles Dodgers as the favorites to win it all this year. Even with Spencer Strider out for the year, Sean Murphy still recovering from an oblique strain suffered on Opening Day and both Matt Olson and Ronald Acuña Jr. struggling to get going, Atlanta ended April with the best winning percentage in the majors.
Atlanta vs. Cleveland, though?
Mamma Mia, that's a spicy meatball.
With Atlanta currently getting +215 odds to win the NL and Cleveland at +1000 to win the AL, you'd be getting over +3300 odds on an Atlanta-Cleveland pennant parlay.
The Guardians had a preseason win total of 79.5 and World Series odds of +6000, but they emerged from the first month of the season as the team to beat in the AL Central behind the strength of a surprisingly potent offense.
They hit 27 fewer home runs than every other team in 2023 and did a whole lot of nothing about it this offseason, yet somehow have become an unstoppable force, averaging better than 5.0 runs per game.
In reality, they aren't hitting much better, but they are hitting much, much more opportunistically. Their overall triple slash line of .245/.319/.389 is barely any different from last year's .250/.313/.381 line. However, the .831 OPS in RISP situations is a night-and-day improvement from the .691 mark in those plate appearances in 2023.
Maybe Steven Kwan flirting with a batting title is unsustainable, but nothing else about this hot start seems to be.
If anything, the offense should actually get better once the young'uns—Brayan Rocchio, Bo Naylor and Tyler Freeman—start pulling their weight. If and when that happens, Cleveland could become the first AL Central team to at least reach the ALCS since it last did so in 2016.
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