Ranking Teams Most Likely to Make Jump to Legitimate Contender for 2024 NFL Season
Every NFL team, theoretically, enters a new season with the same overriding goal: to win the Super Bowl. But that isn't realistic for many clubs, and change is needed to at least make the playoffs.
Every year, 14 teams make it to the postseason while 18 others see their campaigns end on the final day of the regular season.
For those 18 teams, the aim is to end their postseason drought, no matter how long it may be. But that isn't especially realistic for some franchises, either. With all due respect to the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers, neither will play past Week 18 in 2024.
However, there is postseason turnover every year, and 2024 won't be any different. There will be teams that made it to the playoffs last year but falter this time around, and there will be newcomers to the postseason.
These are the 10 teams most likely to make the jump to legitimate contender in the 2024 NFL season.
10. New York Giants
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The last two seasons for the New York Giants could not have been more different.
Two years ago, Daniel Jones and the Giants were one of the league's surprise success stories. They went 9-7-1 and stunned the Minnesota Vikings in the Wild Card Round, earning the quarterback a big contract extension and Brian Daboll Coach of the Year honors.
The G-Men entered 2023 with increased expectations, and things promptly fell apart. Jones struggled before suffering a neck injury and then a torn ACL. With the signal-caller out, the offense imploded. New York ranked 29th in total offense and 30th in scoring.
Those struggles led to a 6-11 season, which earned the Giants the No. 6 overall pick in this year's draft. Many expect that to be used on a QB, but Daboll told reporters that last year's mess of a team and the playoff squad from 2022 aren't as different as some might think:
"You're always adapting and adjusting. You have to, when you're a position coach, coordinator, obviously when you're a head coach. Look, we understand it's a results business, but there is a process to it, too. There is a process that I strongly believe in. Year one, there was a process. The process gave you these results. Year two there was another process. Not really different from year one too much. Some little changes that gave you other results.
"Was it the process or what? Like, that's what you are always evaluating. What can you do with that to try to yield different results. It's a competitive, tough industry. Each year is a different year and we're focused on this year. We're excited to be back, and it's been good to see everybody back in the building."
The offense in New York is a major question mark, whether it's a line that allowed 85 sacks in 2023 or a skill-position group that is among the weakest in the league. But no one expected much from a similar Giants team in 2022.
Don't count Daboll out. Not entirely.
9. Chicago Bears
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Just two years ago, the Chicago Bears were a 3-14 dumpster fire of a team that earned the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft. They flipped that selection to the Carolina Panthers for a package that included this year's No. 1 choice.
And that has the potential to a game-changer in the Windy City.
It seems a foregone conclusion that Chicago will pick Caleb Williams. The USC product's talent is undeniable, but there have been grumbles after the Trojans struggled a year ago.
However, Bears general manager Ryan Poles told Josh Schrock of NBC Sports Chicago that he sees those struggles as a positive:
"There have been quarterbacks in the past where they are undefeated for three years, they have a bunch of first-round picks surrounding them at all times, so it's a projection of how they handle discomfort, how they handle pressure. So, seeing some of these guys go through hard times is important because now you can actually talk about it and listen to them kind of go back and, 'OK, what can I kind of do to get better? How could I handle certain situations better?' There are so many learning lessons from that. It just makes you feel comfortable where, if you're in a situation like that, the kid is going to come out on the other side because if not they can crumble easily."
Chicago has been aggressive in adding talent to help Williams succeed, whether it was bringing in running back D'Andre Swift in free agency or trading for veteran wideout Keenan Allen. The defense added edge-rusher Montez Sweat in a midseason trade last year and signed veteran safety Kevin Byard in the offseason.
If Williams is a quick learner, a jump from last year's 7-10 mark to 9-8 isn't a huge reach.
8. Las Vegas Raiders
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The Las Vegas Raiders are unique on this list in at least one regard: No team here has a more unsettled situation under center.
Aidan O'Connell won half his 10 starts last year, but he did so with passing numbers that looked more like 1973 than 2023.
Newcomer Gardner Minshew II made 13 starts for the Indianapolis Colts a year ago, but he is a high-end backup. There's a reason why more than a few mock drafts have the Raiders taking a quarterback at No. 13 or trading up.
However, O'Connell has no intention of giving up the starting gig without a fight:
"I think especially at this level, and I thought the same thing at Purdue, but especially at this level, there's going to be competition. I mean, it's the best of the best. The coaches and administration want to bring in the best players possible to try to make the team better, and the best guys are going to play, so I'm just trying to do my job."
Mind you, this is a Raiders team that won three of its last four games in 2023, including a Week 16 upset of the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Veags has talent on the roster, whether it's star wideout Davante Adams on offense or edge-rusher Maxx Crosby on defense. But it needs better quarterback play than it got from O'Connell a year ago, or at least more consistent play.
If that play under center improves substantially in 2024, though, the Raiders aren't going to be an easy out.
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7. New Orleans Saints
4 of 10
The New Orleans Saints have lurked around the periphery of playoff contention the past few seasons. They have won nine games twice in the last three years, but they haven't been to the postseason since winning the NFC South with a 12-4 record in 2020.
Despite that relative lack of success in recent years, though, Saints general manager Mickey Loomis told reporters that he maintains great confidence in head coach Dennis Allen:
"Bill Belichick, here's his first three seasons: 6-10, 7-9, 7-9. Tom Landry: 0-11, 4-9, 5-8, 4-10, 5-8. Hall of Fame coaches, all of them. Bill Walsh: 2-14; second year, 6-10.
"So, I think the easy thing to do is just look the results and say, 'Oh no, we've got to have a change.' You need to look beyond that. What are the reasons why we were 9-8 instead of 13-4? It's collective. It's the players, it's the coaches, it's me. It's our personnel staff, our roster, it's variables sometimes that we don't have control of. And so, my assessment is Dennis Allen is a good coach. I think sometimes the hard thing to do is to be patient and recognize your other shortcomings and get those fixed, and that's what we're doing."
That Loomis left out Allen's record as head coach of the Raiders is interesting.
The Saints brought in veteran quarterback Derek Carr last year in the hopes that he would be the missing piece of the puzzle. But his first season in the Big Easy was uneven and injury-marred.
The former term is a fair descriptor for the Saints as a whole. Chris Olave is an excellent young wideout, but there's not much behind him. Cameron Jordan spent a decade-plus as one of the NFL's best edge-rushers, but he's coming off, arguably, the worst season of his career.
The Saints aren't a bad team. With some breaks, a 10-win season and NFC South title could be theirs.
However, New Orleans is also a flawed team that could go 7-10 just as easily.
6. Indianapolis Colts
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That the Indianapolis Colts remained in the playoff hunt for much of the 2023 season despite rolling out a backup quarterback for 13 games speaks to the quality of the roster. The weapons on offense. The talent on defense.
There's renewed optimism in Indy in 2024, and much of that centers around second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson.
The 21-year-old showed flashes of the athleticism and talent that made him the No. 4 overall pick in 2023 before injuring his shoulder.
Colts head coach Shane Steichen told reporters that Richardson is coming along well in his rehab and ready to take a step forward in his second season:
"He's in a really good spot. Had really good discussions that I'll obviously keep private, but he's in a really good spot. His shoulder is feeling good. He should be good to go for practices like we talked about earlier. He will be out there throwing, but we'll limit—we'll obviously monitor it, make sure we're smart with that but he's in a really good place."
The Colts have offensive weapons and talent at all three levels of the defense, whether it's DeForest Buckner on the defensive line, Zaire Franklin at linebacker or Julian Blackmon in the secondary.
They also have the No. 15 pick in the 2024 draft and an electrifying young dual-threat quarterback in Richardson.
The AFC South race has the makings of a three-team donnybrook in 2024.
5. Seattle Seahawks
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Two years ago, the Seattle Seahawks won nine games and snuck into the NFC playoffs. Last year, they again won nine games but missed the postseason.
It's been quite a tumultuous offseason in the Pacific Northwest with Pete Carroll stepping down as head coach. He has been replaced by Mike Macdonald.
And as defensive tackle Leonard Williams told reporters, the new man in charge of the team has made it clear that it's the dawn of a new era in Seattle:
"I remember the first day we came into the team meeting, Mike pointed out that there's empty walls in the hallways and things like that. For a person like me, that made me really excited, and I hope it made the rest of the guys excited. We're obviously going to respect tradition and the history of the Seahawks, but I think it's giving us a clean foundation to create whatever we want to be. We're not chasing to be like any other team that's been here before, we want to create our own identity."
There are questions in Seattle, though. With Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks both gone, the linebackers have been overhauled. The offensive line is a potential liability. There are questions on the edge. And after winning Comeback Player of the Year honors in 2022, Geno Smith regressed in 2023.
But the quarterback isn't hurting for weaponry in the passing game, and Seattle's young cornerback duo of Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen is impressive.
If Smith can get back to his 2022 level of play and the pass rush comes together, a record of double-digit wins is well within reach.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
7 of 10
Two years ago, the Jacksonville Jaguars made the postseason and pulled off one of the biggest comebacks in postseason history. Last year, though, Trevor Lawrence and the team backslid.
The quarterback threw 14 interceptions and battled injuries, and Jacksonville lost five of its final six games after an 8-3 start and ended up watching the playoffs on TV.
The Jaguars have already given a major contract extension to edge-rusher Josh Allen, and many expect an even bigger deal to be coming soon for Lawrence.
However, the 2021 No. 1 overall pick told reporters he's more focused on winning football games than cashing a giant check:
"My job isn't going to change whether I get extended or not before this season. My job is to go win games and to be the best I can be for this team so we can have a chance to win a Super Bowl. Even if I get the contract extension, that's still my job even more so. So, for me, I have the same focus and the same mindset.
"I can't lie. Obviously, it would be nice to have that done and feel good about it, but, no, it's not really the focus right now. I know where we're at, I know where we're heading, and I know what I have to do and there's some improvements that I have to make going forward."
The Jaguars have replaced the departed Calvin Ridley with Gabe Davis, and the team has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, whether it's Travis Etienne and Christian Kirk on offense or Allen and Foyesade Oluokun on defense.
In what's something of a theme for the teams at the front end of these rankings, the Jaguars need a healthy Lawrence playing relatively mistake-free football. Get that, and they can challenge the Texans in the AFC South.
3. Atlanta Falcons
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The Atlanta Falcons are the highest-ranked "party-crashers" on this list.
It's been some time since they kept playing beyond the regular season. They last featured in a playoff game in 2017, the season after their collapse against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI.
The Falcons made the biggest splash in all of free agency this year in an effort to turn those struggles around, handing veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins $45 million per season to become the team's quarterback.
The 35-year-old told reporters at his introductory press conference that he sees the Falcons as a team that is ready to compete in the NFC South.
"I see playmakers on the outside," he said. "I see an offensive line that's talented, that's played together, that's well-coached."
In wide receiver Drake London, tight end Kyle Pitts and running back Bijan Robinson, the weapons are there. Dallas Robinson of Pro Football Network ranked Atlanta's offensive line as the NFL's fourth-best.
The defense isn't loaded with star power, but the Falcons were quietly 11th in the league last season in yards per game allowed. They also have the eighth overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft.
It's not a huge stretch to call Cousins the best quarterback in the division right now. And while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the NFC South in 2023, they did so with just nine wins.
It's probably the most wide-open division in the league. And with a sizable upgrade at the game's most important position, the Falcons have become a fairly heavy favorite to emerge as division champions.
2. New York Jets
9 of 10
New York Jets fans are likely more than a little nervous to see their team included so high on this list. After all, they thought the arrival of quarterback Aaron Rodgers a year ago would give the team the jolt it needed to go from also-ran to legit force in the AFC East.
Instead, the 40-year-old lasted all of one series before tearing his Achilles tendon, and New York found itself pitching and lurching through another very Jets-like season.
Wide receiver Garrett Wilson, who has played with seven quarterbacks in two seasons, acknowledged that something has to change in the Big Apple.
"Aaron will be an offense in itself because that's what he brings to the table," he said. "He's special. I just pray that everyone in the world gets to see that next year. But what happened this year can't happen again."
The Jets made major steps to improve on both sides of the ball in the offseason. The offensive line was upgraded. Wide receiver Mike Williams was brought in as a complement to Wilson in the passing game. The Jets added edge-rusher Haason Reddick to a defense that finished last season third in the league in total defense.
The pieces are all there for a postseason run. With a healthy Rodgers on the roster, it can be argued New York has a better roster than the Buffalo Bills.
But it's all going to come down to No. 8 staying on the field and playing at a relatively high level.
1. Cincinnati Bengals
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It's not hard to see why the Cincinnati Bengals are the top team on this list.
In 2021, they made it all the way to Super Bowl LVI. The year after that, they reached the AFC Championship Game before falling to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Even with quarterback Joe Burrow on the shelf much of last season, the Bengals won nine games.
The LSU product said that he's 100 percent healthy again and believes the Bengals can get right back into the mix in the AFC in 2024:
"We have to be more consistent than we were last year. Part of that was the injury to me. I think we just need to take that next step as an offense. Be more consistent series-to-series. We've been pretty good game-to-game, but I think if we really want to be one of those top one to three offenses in the league, we have to be more consistent."
He added: "We know we have the right people in place to reach our goals. It's just about putting all those pieces together and finding our roles to optimize what we can do."
There have been some personnel departures in the offseason, and the Bengals have the misfortune of playing in what may well be the NFL's toughest division in the AFC North.
However, the Cincinnati roster isn't markedly different to the Super Bowl squad of a couple of years ago. The Bengals don't have a glaring weakness and do have a legitimate superstar quarterback.
It would be something of an upset if they weren't contenders in 2024.
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