1 Bold Prediction for Every MLB Team in 2024
There has been no shortage of MLB prediction content released in the days and weeks leading up to Opening Day.
This is going to be something a bit different.
Rather than focusing on team win-loss totals or straightforward award predictions, we've decided to make one bold prediction for every MLB team.
The idea here was to predict something that could plausibly happen but is a bit outside the box relative to expectations. That could be a surprise stat leader, a breakout prospect, a first-time All-Star or something else entirely.
Let's get weird!
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: Coby Mayo leads Orioles rookies in home runs
With all the hype surrounding Jackson Holliday, another Orioles top prospect knocking on the MLB door is flying under the radar. Slugger Coby Mayo hit .290/.410/.564 with 45 doubles, 29 home runs and 99 RBI in 140 games between Double-A and Triple-A, and he posted a 1.008 OPS with eight extra-base hits in 58 plate appearances this spring. With a hot start at Triple-A, he could push his way into a regular role at first base and designated hitter, and his 65-grade power is for real.
Boston Red Sox: Triston Casas is an AL All-Star starter
After a lackluster start to his first full season in the big leagues, Triston Casas hit .317/.417/.617 with 15 home runs and 38 RBI in 54 games after the All-Star break. His 1.034 OPS during the second half trailed only Shohei Ohtani (1.098), Matt Olson (1.077) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (1.039) among all qualified hitters, and more of the same will land him in the AL's starting lineup.
New York Yankees: Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres, Clay Holmes part of deadline fire sale
If the Yankees fall out of the AL East race early, which is a very real possibility given the wide range of potential outcomes from their starting rotation, they have a lot of intriguing pieces to put on the trade block. Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres, Clay Holmes, Alex Verdugo and Jonathan Loáisiga are all free agents next offseason.
Tampa Bay Rays: Curtis Mead hits .300 over 300-plus plate appearances
Curtis Mead is a .302/.376/.514 hitters over five seasons in the minors, and with a 60-grade hit tool those numbers could translate to similar success in the big leagues. The 23-year-old does not have a clearly defined everyday role, but he has the versatility to force his way into the lineup in a variety of ways. Josh Lowe had a post-hype breakout season last year, and Mead could be that guy this year.
Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sets career high for home runs
It's easy to forget that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still only 25 years old, and the MVP-caliber season he put together in 2021 is more than capable of being duplicated. He hit .311/.401/.601 with 48 home runs and 111 RBI that year, and after crushing a 450-foot bomb on Opening Day, a 50-homer season seems well within the realm of possibility.
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: Jordan Leasure leads the team in saves
The White Sox acquired reliever Jordan Leasure in the deal that sent Lance Lynn to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the deadline. He put together a brilliant run in the Arizona Fall League, allowing just two hits and one earned run while striking out 13 in 8.1 innings. The 25-year-old has logged 13.5 K/9 over 101 minor league appearances, and he has the stuff to stake claim to the open closer's role for the South Siders.
Cleveland Guardians: Emmanuel Clase brings back a top-100 prospect in July
The Guardians still owe Emmanuel Clase another $11.3 million over the next two seasons, and he has matching $10 million club options that carry $2 million buyouts for 2027 and 2028. The All-Star closer was at the center of trade rumors during the offseason, and those could be revisited this summer as the Guardians continually look to manage payroll.
Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize wins AL Comeback Player of the Year
Casey Mize was on his way to living up to the hype of going No. 1 overall in the 2018 draft when he posted a 3.71 ERA in 150.1 innings over 30 starts in 2021, but Tommy John surgery limited him to two starts in 2022 and wiped out his entire 2023 season. His velocity and stuff looked sharp this spring and he broke camp with a spot in the rotation.
Kansas City Royals: Nick Pratto has a post-hype breakout
Nick Pratto opened the 2022 season as the No. 43 prospect in baseball, but he has struggled mightily at the plate the last two years. Nagging hip and groin issues may be largely to blame for those struggles, and with a clean bill of health this spring, he hit .421/.476/.816 with four home runs in 42 plate appearances. The Royals optioned him back to Triple-A to open the year, but a post-hype breakout could be coming.
Minnesota Twins: Pablo López throws MLB's first no-hitter of 2024
In his first season with the Minnesota Twins, Pablo López made his first All-Star appearance and finished seventh in AL Cy Young voting, racking up 234 strikeouts in 194 innings. The 28-year-old has some of the best swing-and-miss stuff in baseball. He had brilliant starts on July 5 (9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 12 K) and Sept. 10 (8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 14 K) last year, and while predicting a no-hitter is a total crap shoot, he has the stuff to do it.
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: Alex Bregman signs a six-year, $192 million extension
The Astros locked up Jose Altuve with a long-term deal this spring, but they have not yet made an extension offer to third baseman Alex Bregman who is in the final season of a five-year, $100 million deal. The two-time All-Star is open to extension talks during the season, so there is still time to get a deal done, and a $32 million annual salary would be a slight bump over the $30.5 million he is set to make in 2024.
Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout hits his 400th career home run
Injuries have limited Mike Trout to 237 games over the past three seasons, but he has continued to produce when healthy, posting a 162 OPS+ while averaging 45 home runs per 162 games during that span. He entered the new season needing 32 home runs to reach 400 for his career, and he launched his first of the year on Opening Day. Here's predicting he stays healthy enough to hit that milestone in 2024.
Oakland Athletics: Mason Miller is an AL All-Star
Armed with a fastball that bumps triple-digits and a wipeout slider that generated a 47.1 percent whiff rate in his debut last year, Mason Miller has electric stuff. The 25-year-old was developed as a starter and pitched in that role to start his MLB career, but an UCL sprain cost him five months and he returned in a bullpen role in September. Now he looks like the leading candidate to close games, and he has the stuff to thrive in that role.
Seattle Mariners: Julio Rodríguez joins 40/40 club
After a 6.2-WAR rookie season and a 32-homer, 103-RBI, 37-steal encore performance last year, Julio Rodríguez has quickly become one of the game's brightest stars. The 23-year-old has the elite combination of power and speed to become the latest member of the exclusive 40-homer, 40-steal club, and that could also make him the front-runner in the AL MVP race.
Texas Rangers: Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter finish one-two in AL Rookie of the Year balloting
Here's a full list of every set of teammates who have finished first and second in Rookie of the Year voting:
- 1957 (PHI): SP Jack Sanford, 1B Ed Bouchee
- 1960 (BAL): SS Ron Hansen, SP Chuck Estrada/1B Jim Gentile
- 1963 (CWS): SP Gary Peters, 3B Pete Ward
- 1975 (BOS): OF Fred Lynn, OF Jim Rice
- 1984 (SEA): 1B Alvin Davis, SP Mark Langston
- 1989 (CHC): OF Jerome Walton, OF Dwight Smith
- 2011 (ATL): RP Craig Kimbrel, 1B Freddie Freeman
- 2022 (ATL): OF Michael Harris II, SP Spencer Strider
Look for Wyatt Langford and Even Carter to become the ninth pair to join that group as they bolster the Texas Rangers offensive attack in 2024.
National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta Braves: Michael Harris II has 30/30 season
After racking up 8.6 WAR over his first two seasons in the majors while showcasing a nice mix of power and speed at the bottom of the batting order, Michael Harris II is moving into more of a run production role this year out of the No. 6 spot in the lineup. The 23-year-old had 18 home runs and 20 steals in 138 games last year, so a 30/30 season would be a major step forward, but he is more than capable.
Miami Marlins: Max Meyer has post-hype breakout
Max Meyer showcased a 100-mph fastball and a devastating slider during his time at the University of Minnesota before going No. 3 overall in the 2020 draft, and he made his MLB debut midway through the 2022 season. The right-hander made just two starts before landing on the injured list, and he ended up missing the entire 2023 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. A wave of injuries to the Marlins rotation gave him a chance to break camp in the starting rotation, and he still has the stuff to be a game-changing arm.
New York Mets: Pete Alonso has 50-homer season
What is Pete Alonso going to do in a contract year? The 29-year-old is playing for a huge contract and needs to prove he belongs in the same category as Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson when it comes to earning power at first base. After a 46-homer, 118-RBI season in 2023, he has the power to return to the 50-homer level he showed as a rookie in 2019.
Philadelphia Phillies: Mick Abel will start 10-plus games, be breakout star
Andrew Painter has often been tabbed as the best pitching prospect in the Philadelphia system, but fellow first-round pick Mick Abel is not far behind. The 6'5" right-hander has four plus pitches, and after posting a 4.13 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 132 strikeouts in 113.1 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year, he could be one of the first arms called on if the Phillies need reinforcements. The 22-year-old has instant impact potential.
Washington Nationals: James Wood makes MLB debut before All-Star break
The prospect centerpiece of the blockbuster deal that sent Juan Soto to the San Diego Padres, outfielder James Wood has gone from boom-or-bust high schooler to one of baseball's elite prospects in just a few short years. The 6'6", 234-pound slugger had an .874 OPS with 28 doubles, 26 home runs and 91 RBI while reaching Double-A as a 20-year-old last year, and he hit .364/.509/.705 with four home runs in 57 plate appearances this spring. The Nationals won't rush him, but he has the talent to force the issue.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: Shōta Imanaga wins NL Rookie of the Year
Yoshinobu Yamamoto might have a higher long-term ceiling, but don't be surprised if Shōta Imanaga makes a smoother transition to the big leagues in 2024. The 30-year-old has better command than his fellow Japanese League standout, and he impressed this spring, striking out 25 of the 60 batters he faced.
Cincinnati Reds: Frankie Montas wins NL Comeback Player of the Year
Frankie Montas was a legitimate top-of-the-rotation starter as recently as 2021 when he went 13-9 with a 3.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 207 strikeouts in 187 innings for the Oakland Athletics to finish sixth in AL Cy Young voting. After a pair of injury-plagued seasons, he hit free agency as one of the more intriguing reclamation projects on the market, and the Reds signed him to a one-year, $14 million deal with a mutual option. The 31-year-old tossed six shutout innings on Opening Day and could be one of the most impactful pickups of the winter.
Milwaukee Brewers: Freddy Peralta wins NL Cy Young
After spending the past several seasons as the best No. 3 starter in baseball, Freddy Peralta is now the unquestioned ace of the Milwaukee rotation. The 27-year-old had a 2.81 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and a 103-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 73.2 innings after the All-Star break last season, and that could be a springboard to a career year in 2024.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Oneil Cruz hits for MLB's first cycle of 2024
Similar to our prediction for the first no-hitter of the season, it's a total crap shoot trying to guess who the first player will be to hit for the cycle. Luis Arraez, Cedric Mullins, J.T. Realmuto, Elly De La Cruz and José Altuve each accomplished the feat in 2023, and with a rare mix of power, speed, athleticism and aggressiveness, Oneil Cruz checks all the boxes to be a prime candidate in 2024.
St. Louis Cardinals: Jordan Walker has 30-homer, 100-RBI season
I've spent much of the offseason hyping up Jordan Walker as a breakout candidate, so there's no reason to stop now. The 21-year-old was somewhat overshadowed in a stacked 2023 rookie class, but he hit .276/.342/.445 for a 114 OPS+ with 19 doubles, 16 home runs and 51 RBI in 117 games while learning how to play the outfield on the fly as one of the 10 youngest players to appear in an MLB game in 2023. The 6'6", 250-pound slugger has barely scratched the surface of his vast potential.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: Brandon Pfaadt is a NL All-Star
After struggling early in the 2023 season and spending time back in the minors, Brandon Pfaadt was recalled on July 22 and posted a 4.22 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 70.1 innings the rest of the way. The 25-year-old then logged a 3.27 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 26 strikeouts in 22 innings during the playoffs as the D-backs No. 3 starter, and that performance on the biggest stage could be the catalyst for a breakout campaign.
Colorado Rockies: Michael Toglia has post-hype breakout
The Rockies selected Michael Toglia with the No. 23 overall pick in the 2019 draft, and while he has steadily climbed the minor league ranks, his limited defensive profile and good-not-great all-around performance caused his prospect star to fade. The 25-year-old still has legitimate 30-homer upside, and after hitting .286/.355/.625 with five home runs and 13 RBI this spring, he made the Opening Day roster with a chance to play his way into a regular role.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Mookie Betts wins NL Gold Glove at shortstop
A six-time Gold Glove winner in right field, Mookie Betts is now making the transition to shortstop. The 31-year-old was drafted as a second baseman, and he saw semi-regular action on the infield last year, so it's not out of the question to think he could make a huge impact with the glove at his new position. Edging out Dansby Swanson, Francisco Lindor and others won't be easy, but he has the skills to add another Gold Glove to his trophy case.
San Diego Padres: Ha-Seong Kim signs a five-year, $100 million extension
The four-year, $28 million deal that Ha-Seong Kim signed with the Padres when he first made the move stateside from the KBO has quickly become one of the best bargains in baseball. The 28-year-old has racked up 12.7 WAR over the first three years of that contract, and now he is facing a contract year with the potential to earn a huge raise on his next contract. The Padres spent the offseason shedding payroll, but locking him up should be a top priority.
San Francisco Giants: Logan Webb starts in All-Star Game debut
There is a strong case to be made that Logan Webb is the best pitcher in baseball right now who has never been selected to an All-Star team. The 27-year-old finished runner-up in NL Cy Young voting last year with a 3.25 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 194 strikeouts in 216 innings, and he is as good a candidate as any to get the starting nod for the NL in the 2024 All-Star Game.
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