NCAA Tournament 2024: Top Sleeper Teams Heading into Men's March Madness
The four teams who wind up claiming the No. 1 seeds for the upcoming men's NCAA Tournament will have earned those spots.
They've submitted the strongest regular-season resumes and therefore have earned the easiest-on-paper paths to the championship podium.
That doesn't mean the eventual tournament winner will come from that group. Since 2000, five different teams that weren't first or second seeds wound up being crowned as champions. That includes last year's winner, then fourth-seeded Connecticut. Interestingly, the Huskies have delivered two of the other surprise championship runs, too, as they won it all as a seventh seed in 2014 and a third seed in 2011.
So, if you're filling out your brackets this year and don't want to roll with a team like Purdue, Houston or UConn, consider the three following schools, who won't snag a top seed but could produce a lengthy run anyway.
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Alabama Crimson Tide
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The Crimson Tide encountered some turbulence late in the season, as they closed out the campaign with three losses (and an overtime win over unranked Arkansas) in their final five contests.
If we know anything about Nate Oats' team, though, it's that it can re-heat at any time. Alabama averages the most points in the country (90.8) and trails only Purdue in offensive efficiency, per KenPom.
This club runs-and-guns opponents out of the gym. Four different players average double figures, led by senior guard Mark Sears, a nightly source of 21.1 points, 4.1 assists and 4.0 rebounds. Four rotation regulars shoot better than 38 percent from three, and virtually this entire roster is reliable at the foul line.
This defense is leaky, hence why the team has 10 losses and a No. 4 seed on the latest bracket from ESPN's Joe Lunardi. If the Tide's threes are falling and they're getting open-court opportunities, though, they're perfectly comfortable (and plenty capable) winning races to 90-plus points.
BYU Cougars
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The Cougars' metrics are superior to their bracket projection.
While KenPom regards this club as the 16th-best in the country, Lunardi seeded this squad on the No. 5 line. For reference, the average ranking of the other No. 5 seeds—Nevada, South Carolina and San Diego State—is 34.7.
BYU, which knocked off four ranked opponents, pairs an egalitarian offense with a top-50 defense (43rd in efficiency). Six different players average between 13.9 and 9.1 points, which doesn't include one of the trickiest matchups on the roster in Aly Khalifa. The junior big man is a good passer for anyone (4.2 assists against 1.2 turnovers in 20.1 minutes) but an especially brilliant one for a 6'11", 270-pounder. He's also willing to fire from three-point range, where he's a career 35.8 percent shooter.
When the Cougars are converting their long-range looks, they can come at opponents in waves and overwhelm them with quantity. If their defense elevates even a half-step up, this could be a really tricky matchup come tournament time.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
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No, this isn't the best team Mark Few has ever coached at Gonzaga, but it's better than the No. 6 seed Lunardi projected it to receive.
KenPom ranked the Bulldogs No. 15 in the nation and slotted its offense No. 9 overall. A No. 48 ranking in defensive efficiency shows this group isn't just a one-sided specialist, either.
Still, when teams game-plan against Gonzaga, they do so with slowing down this offense in mind. Despite the attention, though, this attack seldom stumbles. Junior forward Graham Ike is the top scorer at 16.5 points per game, but senior forward Anton Watson and junior guards Nolan Hickman and Ryan Nembhard all average better than a dozen points, too. Nembhard is also a strong decision-maker (6.7 assists against 2.2 turnovers), and Hickman is a lights-out shooter from distance (70 made threes at a 40.7 percent clip).
This offense can give anyone fits, and when you add in this group's experience and coaching, this is a team that could be dancing much longer than anyone anticipates.
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