2024 NBA Awards Predictions: Nikola Jokic's Case for Third MVP + ROY Debate is Over
Will Nikola Jokić collect his third NBA MVP award in four years, or will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander become the first guard to win the award since James Harden back in 2018?
That race and several others aren't so much developing as barreling toward the finish. We have about 25 more games to decide every individual NBA honor, which means it's officially crunch time.
With the 2023-24 season entering the stretch run, let's check in on all the major awards and predict who'll carry them home in the end. And as a reminder, players must play in at least 65 games to be eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and Most Improved Player.
MVP: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
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The league leader in box plus/minus and value over replacement player, Nikola Jokić once again has a rock-solid statistical case to take home what would be his third MVP. Were he to sustain his leads in those catch-all categories, 2023-24 would be his fourth straight season atop those leaderboards.
Though the Denver Nuggets seem less interested in pushing for the top seed that bolsters many MVP cases, Jokić's impact on team success is undiminished. Denver's net rating is an obscene 22.0 points per 100 possessions higher with him on the floor, which is easily the top figure in the league among players with at least 500 minutes of court time.
Though Jokić's true shooting percentage is down to 65.1 percent from last year's league-high 70.1, he's still less than an assist per game away from averaging a triple-double and is turning the ball over less frequently than he has in any of his nine NBA seasons.
The Joker still exerts a level of control over every game that no one else matches, and he does it with ease. He doesn't so much play basketball as perform thorough mental dissections on every possession.
At 29, his processing speed still seems to be increasing. With that said, this isn't a runaway by any stretch. Jokić's competition is real, and it's coming from more than one corner.
Runner-Up: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
SGA's Thunder are ahead of Jokić's Nuggets in the standings, largely because the 25-year-old guard has solidified himself as perhaps the toughest cover in the NBA. Gilgeous-Alexander is on track to average just over 31 points per game for the second straight year, and he's a good bet to lead the league in steals this season, too. He, not Jokić, is tops in Dunks and Threes' estimated wins.
While Jokić's on-off numbers are better than SGA's, that largely has to do with a supporting cast that coughs up leads while he rests. With Jokić on the floor, Denver has an excellent plus-10.0 net rating. OKC doesn't fall off a cliff without Gilgeous-Alexander, but it actually produces a superior plus-11.7 net rating with its MVP candidate in the game.
The winner of the battle involving that particular stat depends on your definition of "valuable." Jokić's Nuggets clearly need him more, but is it really fair to knock SGA because his team does just fine when he rests?
Worth a Mention: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks; Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks; Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
Rookie of the Year: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
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It was fun while it lasted, but the see-saw battle between Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren for Rookie of the Year appears to be at an end.
Wemby's 5x5 effort against the Los Angeles Lakers on Feb. 23, which came on the heels of a similar near miss the night before, completed the restoration of order. Just as so many expected when the Spurs used the No. 1 overall pick on the most tantalizing prospect in years, Wembanyama is a franchise-making, sport-altering star.
Wembanyama should be in the running for Defensive Player of the Year on the strength of his 98th percentile defensive estimated plus/minus figure. He's also leading the league in blocks and is on pace to become the fourth player in the last 20 years to average at least three blocks and one steal per game. Filter that group to include big-time offensive contributions, like by adding the requirement that the player also averaged 20 points per game, and Wemby is all alone.
We aren't limiting the field to rookies, either. He's by himself, period.
Runner-Up: Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
Holmgren leads Wembanyama in EPM and estimated wins, and voters might also like the fact that he's doing it for a winning team. At 17.1 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.6 blocks and 0.7 steals per game, the OKC big man trails Wemby in all five categories. For context, though, Wemby is the only player this season beating Holmgren across the board in those statistical areas.
The key difference is role. Holmgren isn't tasked with the same level of defensive responsibilities that Wembanyama is, and he's also surrounded by enough talent to essentially trim out the worst shots from his diet. Wembanyama's counting stats leap off the page, but let's not forget about Holmgren's major edge in efficiency. His 64.4 true shooting percentage is well above Wemby's 56.3 percent.
Oddsmakers have this award going to Wembanyama (-600) over Holmgren (+500) convincingly, but the race is closer than the odds suggest.
Worth a Mention: Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors; Dereck Lively II, Dallas Mavericks; Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat
Sixth Man of the Year: Malik Monk, Sacramento Kings
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No reserve averages more fourth-quarter points or minutes than Malik Monk, which is a great way to distinguish his bench contributions from those belonging to the gaggle of mostly empty scorers who always vie for this award.
It's a simplification, but it matters: Monk isn't just a low-minute gunner who's fit for a small role against backups. He's one of the Sacramento Kings' five best players, and his team wants him on the floor in the moments that matter most.
Overall, Monk is putting up 15.1 points and 5.3 assists on a 44.8/36.7/81.1 shooting split. A few other candidates can match or beat some of those stats, but none of them accumulate numbers in higher-stakes situations.
Runner-Up: Norman Powell, Los Angeles Clippers
Unless you're basing it on the idea that his team needs his shooting more, Tim Hardaway Jr.'s case for 6MOY just doesn't measure up to Norman Powell's. Hardaway is a high-volume chucker with a true shooting percentage well below the league average, while Powell is drilling threes at a career-high 45.6 percent clip en route to a true shooting percentage that's well above the league average.
Both are primarily asked to score, and Powell does the job far better than Hardaway does. THJ has a higher scoring average, which is probably why the oddsmakers have him ahead of Powell. Killer analysis there.
We just have to accept that some believe this award should actually be called "Guy Who Scores The Most Points But Doesn't Start."
Worth a Mention: Tim Hardaway Jr., Dallas Mavericks; Bogdan Bogdanović, Atlanta Hawks; Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves
Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Rudy Gobert isn't the only reason why the Minnesota Timberwolves have the league's best defensive rating, but he's the biggest one.
Let's not just leave it at Minnesota being at the top of the heap on that end. We also need to discuss the margin.
The NBA's No. 2 defense belongs to the Cleveland Cavaliers, who allow 110.4 points per 100 possessions, 2.5 more than Minnesota. That difference is bigger than the one separating Cleveland from the eighth-ranked Houston Rockets.
While much has been made of Gobert's growth as a defender in space—a truly surprising late-career development—his dominance is still all about shutting off looks at the rim. Opponents attempt 5.9 percent fewer shots at point-blank range with Gobert in the game, the best figure of any big man with at least 1,500 minutes on the year.
Even when offensive players muster the nerve to shoot near the basket, the results are worse when Gobert is the primary defender than they are with anyone else swapped into his position. Gobert's opponent field-goal percentage inside six feet (48.4 percent) is the lowest of any NBA regular.
After a year off, Gobert is back to being the most impactful defensive player in the league. He's a great bet to pick up his fourth DPOY, which would put him in a tie with Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo for the most in NBA history.
Runner-Up: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
We already laid out Wemby's strong statistical case in his ROY writeup, but there's still more to say about what the rookie does on D. For example, Wemby has more blocks than seven entire teams in February.
For the visual learners out there, here's Wemby showing the holy trinity of defensive skills: quick feet, long arms and a relentless motor.
Worth a Mention: Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers; Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat; Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
Most Improved Player: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
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Most Improved Player often lands with someone who added more minutes and touches (but not necessarily new skills) to his game, so we can't discount the possibility of guys like Tyrese Maxey or Alperen Şengün collecting enough votes to win.
Scottie Barnes should be the pick if the actual spirit of the award, which includes the word "improvement," counts for anything.
A liability as a jump-shooter through the first two years of his career, Barnes is now a credible three-point threat. He's taking about two more long-range shots per game and hitting them at a 34.6 percent clip, which is a drastic improvement over his 28.1 percent mark from last season.
An All-Star for the first time and now clearly ensconced as the Toronto Raptors' franchise cornerstone, Barnes is distributing the ball more, getting to the foul line with increased frequency and posting a better true shooting percentage while increasing his usage rate. He's also been more accurate from two-point range and from the charity stripe than he was last season.
As playmaking and on-ball responsibilities climb, efficiency typically falls. That hasn't been the case for Barnes, who's on track for two-way superstardom thanks to legitimate gains in multiple areas.
Runner-Up: Coby White, Chicago Bulls
You don't often hear about fifth-year leaps, which is why Coby White's rise this season stands out. Yes, the 24-year-old is seeing a career-high 36.3 minutes of action per game. But his statistical increases aren't just tied to playing time.
White was more of a combo guard earlier in his career, but an assist rate that spiked from 16.3 percent last year to 21.5 percent this season suggests he's closer to a true point guard than many thought. White is also getting to the foul line more frequently than ever and has upped his true shooting percentage to a career-best 58.6 percent.
It's been a dark year for the Bulls, but White's emergence represents a real bright spot.
Worth a Mention: Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers; Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets; Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors; Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
Clutch Player: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
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Though the Warriors are only plus-3 in his 121 clutch minutes this season, Stephen Curry still deserves to be the front-runner here because his individual scoring in close-and-late situations has been so remarkable. No one else comes close to his 165 clutch points.
Curry is shooting 50.5 percent from the field and 47.5 percent from deep in clutch situations, but the volume is somehow even more impressive than the efficiency. Steph's 28 made triples in the clutch are more than the next two most prolific late-game snipers—Buddy Hield with 11 and Derrick White with 10—combined.
Seeing as almost no player gets more defensive attention than Curry when games are close, it's hard to fathom how he manages to put up (let alone make) so many deep shots.
It also doesn't hurt that he's 35-of-37 from the foul line (94.6 percent) in the clutch.
Runner-Up: DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls
DeRozan's 114 clutch points don't come close to Curry's total, but the Bulls are plus-52 in his 128 clutch minutes.
Damian Lillard joins DeRozan as the only other player with at least 100 clutch points and a team plus-minus of at least plus-50, but DeRozan's shooting splits of 51.5/50.0/85.1 crush Lillard's 41.7/28.1/95.6.
It's interesting to note the contrast between Curry and DeRozan. The former operates mostly outside the arc and running off screens, while the latter sets up shop around the elbows and generates offense with an almost robotic self-sufficiency.
Different clutch strokes for different clutch folks.
Worth a Mention: Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks; Coby White, Chicago Bulls; Derrick White, Boston Celtics; Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
Coach of the Year: Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Mark Daigneault may not want the distinction of winning Coach of the Year because of what the award tends to mean for postseason success. Gregg Popovich (2003, 2014) is the only coach to win a championship and COY in the same season this century.
That we're even considering Daigneault's Oklahoma City Thunder a title threat goes a long way to explaining why he lands at the top of the pile for this award.
OKC is the second-youngest team in the league—led by relative old head Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (25) but otherwise driven by players in their early 20s. That's not typically the age profile of a contender.
Daigneault has his crew of neophytes playing exceptionally hard (which is the easy part) while also operating with a level of organization and precision you don't normally see from so many guys still on their rookie contracts.
The Thunder play small and fast, drive and kick more frequently than any other team and somehow still allow the league's lowest field-goal percentage at the rim. Much of that owes to Chet Holmgren, but the rookie's effectiveness in such a critical defensive role owes at least in part to Daigneault's scheming.
Oklahoma City doesn't have vets to settle things down or operate as coaches on the floor. Kenrich Williams, 29, is the only player over 25 who's averaging more than 14 minutes per game. That means we have to credit Daigneault for the tactics that have the Thunder profiling as the best team in the West, putting them several years ahead of the usual rebuilding schedule.
Runner-Up: Chris Finch, Minnesota Timberwolves
Coming in second among 30 coaches is no small achievement, but explaining why someone finishes as a runner-up requires highlighting differences between him and the winner. For Chris Finch, the distinguishing factors are a more experienced roster than Daigneault has in OKC and a suspect offense that can look downright aimless at the worst times.
Minnesota is just 16th in offensive efficiency (Oklahoma City is third), which is hard to understand with veteran point guard Mike Conley, rising superstar Anthony Edwards and perhaps the most prolific stretch big the league has ever seen in Karl-Anthony Towns.
The Wolves' defense is elite, but a middling offensive rating has to count as an underachievement. That small demerit is a factor in a close race.
Worth a Mention: Tyronn Lue, Los Angeles Clippers; Joe Mazzulla, Boston Celtics; Rick Carlisle, Indiana Pacers; JB Bickerstaff, Cleveland Cavaliers
Executive of the Year: Brad Stevens, Boston Celtics
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Following appearances in three of the last four Eastern Conference Finals, Boston Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens could have taken the easy way out and done almost nothing in the 2023 offseason. Instead, he made some hard choices.
Though it now looks like an absolute heist, the deal Stevens struck to send Marcus Smart to the Memphis Grizzlies in a three-team trade that netted Kristaps Porzingis and two first-round picks was no sure thing at the time. KP was coming off what seemed like an outlier year with the Washington Wizards, and his durability was a real concern. Losing Smart, an integral presence within the franchise, felt like amputating a limb.
Later in the offseason, Stevens then dealt reigning Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon and defensive dynamo Robert Williams III in a package for Jrue Holiday.
Including the sign-and-trade that landed Grant Williams in Dallas, Stevens turned four rotation pieces into two. With Porzingis fitting in perfectly and Holiday bringing everything Smart did and more, Boston has been the league's best team by a mile through about three-quarters of the campaign.
Nothing is tougher in the NBA than making the leap from very good to great, and the moves Stevens made seem to have achieved that. The Celtics will ultimately be judged on their success or failure in the playoffs, but all the indicators to this point in the season suggest they're in pole position for their first ring in 16 years.
Runner-Up: Leon Rose, New York Knicks
Donte DiVincenzo was one of the best offseason values at four years and $50 million, the Josh Hart extension made sense, and the decision to move Obi Toppin for two future second-rounders was the type of shrewd admission on a draft miss that the Knicks never used to make.
Leon Rose wouldn't warrant a spot in the EOY conversation had he stopped there, but fortunately for the Knicks, he was far from finished. Deals to bring in OG Anunoby, Bojan Bogdanović and Alec Burks filled out the rotation (prior to Anunoby's injury) and balanced the roster.
It couldn't have been easy for Rose to move homegrown talents RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley in the Anunoby deal, but the best version of this current Knicks team needs the former Toronto Raptor shutting down wings and hitting threes.
That Rose managed to substantially improve the roster without dipping deeply into the franchise's trove of future first-round picks only adds to his case. If the Knicks intend to go star hunting this summer or next, they still have more than enough draft capital to target the biggest game.
Worth a Mention: Mike Dunleavy Jr. Golden State Warriors; Daryl Morey, Philadelphia 76ers; Rafael Stone, Houston Rockets
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate entering games Feb. 27. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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