Ideal Landing Spots, Projected 2024 NFL Free-Agency Contracts for Top RBs on Market
The value of a running back in today's era is among the most fascinating NFL roster-construction questions.
Although teams can manipulate the salary cap, money is finite. Proven quarterbacks on non-rookie deals cost a mountain of cash, and the market price for elite receivers or blockers is only rising.
Where can franchises save money on offense? Running backs.
Simultaneously, few skill-position players will provide more production. Top backs can offer a much-needed explosive and/or versatile element, particularly to the league's worst offenses.
Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs are among the backs headed for free agency in 2024. We've projected their contracts and identified a few ideal landing spots for each member of that quintet, along with four other respected runners.
D'Andre Swift
1 of 7
Although the Philadelphia Eagles' tailspin on offense ruined a once-promising season, D'Andre Swift put together his best NFL campaign at the perfect moment.
The impending free agent rushed for a career-high 1,049 yards, adding 39 catches for 214 yards and totaling six touchdowns.
Yes, the Eagles will consider re-signing him. The problem is that they only traded for Swift because they chose not to pay Miles Sanders last offseason and historically have not prioritized big-money dollars at the position under general manager Howie Roseman.
Swift, who turned 25 in January, is worth a short-term deal in the range of two years and $12 million—with some but not all of his salary guaranteed in 2025—to see whether he can build on a breakout season.
If his market is slow, though, a return to Philly is logical.
Teams to watch: Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles
Devin Singletary
2 of 7
Entering the 2023 season, the expectation was the Houston Texans would lean on Dameon Pierce. After all, he'd collected 1,104 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns as a rookie.
Devin Singletary had other plans.
The former Buffalo Bills back scampered for 898 yards and four touchdowns, also snaring 30 passes for 193 yards. He chipped in 140 yards from scrimmage and a score during Houston's two playoff games, too.
Since the Texans have a load of cap space with quarterback C.J. Stroud on a rookie deal, they might want to make a splashy addition at the position. Any of the best running backs in the class may interest Houston, and that'd likely send Singletary elsewhere on the market.
Singletary's profile is similar to that of David Montgomery, who landed a three-year, $18 million deal to share time on the Detroit Lions.
Teams to watch: Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans, New England Patriots
Tony Pollard
3 of 7
Tony Pollard endured a disappointing season that included an eight-game scoreless streak and zero touchdowns as a receiver. Sure, he topped the 1,000-yard mark again but mustered an inefficient 4.0 per carry.
Based on his upside, the Cowboys should not be quick to move on. Pollard can still be a productive back in Dallas.
After yet another postseason flop, however, Jerry Jones will be desperate to make changes. That may lead to Jones targeting a high-profile running back, such as Derrick Henry or Austin Ekeler.
Should the Cowboys decide not to keep him, Pollard would be a great target—especially for an offense that may lose a running back on the market. For example, the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Chargers may need to replace AJ Dillon and Ekeler, respectively.
Since he'll be 27 next season, Pollard may be able to command an annual rate around $7 million on a two- or three-year contract.
Teams to watch: Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Chargers
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Austin Ekeler
4 of 7
Sometimes, the writing is on the wall. Other moments, people are bold enough to say the quiet part out loud.
"I'm not going to be with these guys anymore, and it's one of those journeys that I'll always remember," Ekeler said after the regular-season finale, per Daniel Popper of The Athletic. "But sad that it has to end."
Ekeler's seven-year run on the Chargers is expected to end with a frustrating, injury-affected season. He rushed for 628 yards and reeled in 51 passes for 436 yards with six total touchdowns, all his lowest outputs since 2020 when he only played in 10 games.
When healthy, he remains a valuable and versatile back. The question is how the 28-year-old is balancing role, money or team contention on what's likely the final pricey contract of his career.
Dallas, for instance, may offer $7-8 million per year to make a splash. Philly is a great fit, although likely on a one-year offer. Or, perhaps the Chicago Bears will offer more playing time and a longer-term contract with less money and a tougher path to the postseason.
Ekeler will be in demand, but his decision is nuanced.
Teams to watch: Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles
Saquon Barkley
5 of 7
"Luxury" is a fitting word you might regularly see shaping this conversation with Saquon Barkley and the New York Giants.
Is he a good player? Absolutely. Are the Giants better with him? Yes. Is the team built to legitimately contend right now? No. Can you replace a running back with a career 4.3-yard average per carry? Yes.
Look, on a top offense, Barkley's efficiency can soar. That's why Houston is a fun team to consider. Chicago's appeal, with a new coordinator and presumably a rookie QB, is worth a mention, too.
However, it's tough to see the Giants actually letting him walk.
Barkley's value on the open market would likely be around $10 million, and New York can slap the franchise tag on him for approximately $12 million. He'll probably stay a member of the Giants in 2024—although a trade at any point in the year is very much a possibility.
Teams to watch: Chicago Bears, Houston Texans, New York Giants
Josh Jacobs
6 of 7
Following a breakout season with 2,000-plus scrimmage yards, Josh Jacobs returned to earth in 2023. He missed four games, totaling 1,101 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns as the Las Vegas Raiders' featured back.
The franchise is entering a fresh era under Antonio Pierce, who watched Zamir White produce well in Jacobs' absences.
Ah, yes, the tricky value of running backs.
Jacobs is younger than anyone other than Swift on this list, and his ceiling—as seen in 2022—is exceptional. For that, he'll probably command the highest annual rate of any back who isn't franchise-tagged.
But will that be in Las Vegas, which saw life without Jacobs might not be so bad? If the Giants lose Barkley, would they pivot to him? Do the Texans or Tennessee Titans want him to lead a new-look backfield?
Jacobs' outlook is fascinating.
Teams to watch: Houston Texans, New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry
7 of 7
Derrick Henry has arrived at a fork in the road of his career.
Given that he's earned more than $56 million as an NFL player, landing a high-end salary might not be Henry's primary goal. He'll want to be fairly compensated, sure, but a chance to compete for a Super Bowl may supersede a desire to further pad his bank account.
If that indeed is the case, the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs would be two appealing low-budget destinations.
Dallas may fall in love with Henry's name value and hope a solid offensive line boosts the 30-year-old close to exiting his prime. Green Bay fits a similar mold, especially if Aaron Jones takes another pay cut.
Cautiously, expect Henry around the $5-6 million range that fluctuates based on where the team sits on the "competitiveness" scale.
Teams to watch: Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs
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