Bleacher Report's Expert NFC, AFC Championship 2024 NFL Picks
Among the four remaining NFL playoff teams, the Detroit Lions fit the Cinderella story because they haven't played in a conference championship game since the 1991 season, but bettors shouldn't let history or narratives cloud their judgement on Sunday.
Bleacher Report's NFL expert panel, which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton along with editors Wes O'Donnell, Ian Hanford and Bryan Toporek, fared well on straight-up (moneyline) bets for the divisional round, going 3-1. With their one and only consensus pick, they made the right call in favor of the Lions.
This week, our crew has strong thoughts about which teams will advance to the Super Bowl.
Will we see a rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers? Can Lamar Jackson find a playoff breakthrough to make his first appearance in the title game? Will the Lions inch closer to their first Lombardi Trophy?
The B/R experts have the answers with individual score predictions for those of you picking against the spread (ATS).
Lines are from DraftKings as of Thursday at 4 p.m. ET. Check the latest lines at DraftKings. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.
No. 3 Detroit Lions (14-5) at No. 1 San Francisco 49ers (13-5)
1 of 4
Detroit Lions injuries to watch: Last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a couple of Lions offensive linemen suffered significant injuries.
According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, guard Jonah Jackson underwent surgery to repair a "slight meniscus tear" and will miss Sunday's game.
Per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, center Frank Ragnow played through a sprained ankle and knee, and he's expected to suit up Sunday. He sat out of the first practice this week.
Over the last two weeks, rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has been playing through a knee injury. Last week, he practiced with limited capacity or in full for three consecutive days. He missed the first practice of the week.
Linebacker Alex Anzalone (shoulder/ribs) and wide receiver Josh Reynolds (ribs) opened the week limited at practice.
San Francisco 49ers injuries to watch: The 49ers have one key player on the injury report who's in real danger of missing the NFC Championship Game.
Last week, wideout Deebo Samuel suffered a right shoulder injury and didn't return to action. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the 49ers believe he has a "50-50" chance of playing Sunday. On Wednesday, when asked about Samuel's condition, head coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters that "he feels better," per The Athletic's Matt Maiocco. Samuel didn't practice on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, the 49ers allowed defensive end Nick Bosa and left tackle Trent Williams to sit out of practice for a rest day. Defensive end Arik Armstead (foot/knee), linebacker Dre Greenlaw (Achilles), cornerback Ambry Thomas (hand) and defensive back George Odum (biceps) practiced in full to start the week.
In a nutshell: The 49ers have won eight of their last nine games, excluding Week 18 when they rested starters, but they've looked vulnerable at home twice over the past month.
In Week 16, San Francisco lost 33-19 to the Baltimore Ravens, and last week, trailed the No. 7-seeded Green Bay Packers for most of the fourth quarter before scoring 10 unanswered points to pull out a 24-21 victory.
To win on Sunday, the 49ers may have to jump to a quick start against the Lions, who have averaged 28.3 points per game over the last three weeks. With that being said, Detroit hasn't scored more than 19 points in two of its last three road games.
The 49ers are heavily favored, but the Lions went 6-3 in their away games during the regular season. San Francisco could be in store for another nail-biter.
Random tidbit: During the regular season, the Lions didn't allow a running back to rush for 100-plus yards—only Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields accomplished that feat against Detroit's defense. For the 2023 campaign, San Francisco is 6-1 when running back Christian McCaffrey rushes for 100-plus yards.
The Pick: Lions (+7)
2 of 4
Gagnon: While I do think Detroit's magical run will end Sunday in the Bay Area, the Lions can keep this game close. We all saw an inferior Green Bay team do exactly that on Saturday night at this very site, and Detroit has lost by more than seven points just twice in its last 21 games.
Meanwhile, the 49ers have been outscored while going 1-2 in their last three home games. That, of course, includes a meaningless Week 18 loss to the Rams, but the fact remains the team feels rusty. Now, Deebo Samuel is dealing with a pretty significant shoulder injury. I just don't trust Brock Purdy and Co. to pull away here.
49ers 27, Lions 24
Knox: After whiffing on ATS picks last week, I'm probably better off flipping a coin for this one. Coincidentally, Samuel's chances of playing in the NFC title game also appear to be 50-50. I'd expect him to go but to be less than 100 percent, which is a big deal.
More concerning to me, though, is the play of San Francisco's defense we saw last week. The 49ers struggled against the Packers run game, and Detroit has one of the league's most versatile rushing attacks.
The Lions also feature a plethora of pass-catching playmakers, which should stress San Francisco's good-not-great secondary. Detroit has the defensive talent up front to limit Christian McCaffrey, which will place a lot of pressure on Brock Purdy, and I can see that making the difference.
The difference last week was that Purdy's potential interceptions were dropped, while Jordan Love had two poor throws picked. I'm predicting a fate reversal this week and taking the Lions to earn the upset win that Green Bay probably should have gotten in the divisional round.
Lions 31, 49ers 28
Moton: Oddsmakers disrespected Detroit with a seven-point spread in favor of San Francisco. Yes, the Lions have lost two of their five games by 15-plus points, but Detroit matches up well with San Francisco because of its passing attack.
The Lions field the second-ranked passing offense, and quarterback Jared Goff has thrown for five touchdowns without an interception in his last three outings while averaging about 295 passing yards in that span.
The Lions will cover the spread, and Goff outduels Brock Purdy in the final quarter to make his second Super Bowl appearance.
Lions 27, 49ers 24
Toporek: This game might come down to which team can better survive injuries to key players. Lions guard Jonah Jackson is likely to be out because of a knee injury, while center Frank Ragnow is somehow expected to play through the sprained knee and sprained ankle that he suffered against the Buccaneers last Sunday, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
The Lions had one of the league's most potent rushing attacks during the regular season, but it's unclear how effective they'll be against the 49ers with a banged-up offensive line. If they can't keep the Niners' explosive offense off the field with a run-heavy, ball-control game plan, Purdy and his array of skill-position weapons could feast against the Lions' sputtering defense regardless of whether Samuel suits up.
I'm picking the Niners to win here, but I'll take the Lions to cover the seven-point spread, particularly if Deebo either doesn't play or is limited. The Niners offense could be more mortal without the do-it-all wideout, leaving room for the Lions to sneak a backdoor cover if needed.
49ers 31, Lions 27
No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs (13-6) at No. 1 Baltimore Ravens (14-4)
3 of 4
Baltimore Ravens injuries to watch: The Ravens could get an offensive boost from All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews, who hasn't played since he suffered an ankle injury in Week 11. Last week, he logged a couple of full practices and went through another complete session Wednesday.
All-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey is trending in the right direction. After missing the entire week of practices leading up to the Ravens' divisional-round matchup, he practiced with limitations Wednesday.
Cornerback Rock Ya-Sin (knee) and special teamer Del'Shawn Phillips (shoulder) logged limited practices, while guard Kevin Zeitler had a rest day to start the week. Wideout Tylan Wallace has been a spectator because of a knee injury.
Kansas City Chiefs to watch: Among the four remaining playoff teams, the Chiefs have the longest injury report, and a few key players seem to have an uphill climb to play in Sunday's game.
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Joe Thuney is "unlikely" to play because of a pectoral injury, though another source told the NFL insider that the Pro Bowl guard will "work like crazy to play."
Last week, safety Mike Edwards suffered a concussion, and he's still going through protocol.
Defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi hasn't practiced since he suffered a triceps injury early in the Chiefs' wild-card game against the Miami Dolphins. Wideout Skyy Moore hasn't played since Week 15, and he's missed the team's last two practices because of a knee injury.
Running back Isiah Pacheco has ankle and toe injuries, but he told NFL Network's James Palmer that he expects to play.
On Wednesday, guard Trey Smith sat out of practice because of an illness. Linebacker Willie Gay (neck) and cornerback L'Jarius Sneed (calf) practiced with limitations.
In a nutshell: We'll see two of the league's top quarterbacks on the field in the AFC Championship Game. Patrick Mahomes has won two league MVPs, and Lamar Jackson may win his second league MVP in a few weeks.
In terms of head-to-head matchups, Jackson has to make up ground on Mahomes. With Jackson and Mahomes under center for their respective teams, the Chiefs have a 3-1 record, but this will be the first postseason meeting between the two signal-callers.
Both teams have gained steam leading up to this game. Kansas City has won its last four outings, and Baltimore has claimed victory in seven of its last eight contests with the only loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers without its starters in Week 18.
Random tidbit: Mahomes hasn't thrown an interception in his last five playoff outings, going back three years to the Chiefs' loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game. This season, the Ravens tied for third in interceptions with 18, and they have forced a turnover in 14 out of 18 contests.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
The Pick: Chiefs (+3.5)
4 of 4
Davenport: The Baltimore Ravens are the better, more balanced team. Lamar Jackson is all but certainly going to be named MVP. The pass rush is the league's best. Baltimore just jack-stomped an overmatched Houston Texans team in the divisional round. The Ravens will be playing at home. A great many things point toward a Baltimore victory.
I thought the same thing about the Buffalo Bills last week. For all the Ravens have, there's one thing they do not—a quarterback who was blasted with Omega Rays in a scientific experiment gone wrong and transformed into an unstoppable juggernaut on the football field.
Jackson's entire legacy to this point in his career is riding on this contest. Patrick Mahomes is playing in his sixth consecutive AFC Championship Game.
Mahomes stands on his head (again), and the Chiefs win the AFC (again).
Dynasty.
Chiefs 24, Ravens 20
Hanford: Don't bet against Mahomes. That's really what this pick comes down to. He has dominated the Ravens historically, passing for 1,479 yards and 12 touchdowns while going 3-1 ATS.
I do believe this will be the best Ravens team he's ever faced (and the best version of Jackson we've ever seen), but I don't think that will stop Mahomes from doing what he does best in the playoffs. He's been here before. He's almost always on top of his game on the biggest of stages. Chiefs come out on top behind a late Harrison Butker field goal.
Chiefs 24, Ravens 21
Moton: For the most part, Jackson hasn't played well against Kansas City. He completed less than 55 percent of his passes in three out of four matchups with the Chiefs, but Kansas City will see a different version of him on Sunday.
In an MVP-caliber campaign, Jackson is completing a career-high 67.2 percent of his passes, and he's still a dynamic playmaker with his legs, averaging a league-leading 5.5 yards per carry.
This year, the Chiefs' 15th-ranked scoring offense doesn't have the firepower to keep pace with Jackson and the Ravens. Baltimore's No. 1-ranked rushing offense will wear down Kansas City's 18th-ranked run defense in the second half to eke out a win by a field goal.
Ravens 24, Chiefs 21
Sobleski: An overly simplified approach to this prediction would fall somewhere along the lines of, "Don't bet against Patrick Mahomes." Even though Jackson nears a second MVP award, Mahomes is the best player in football and continues to show why when it matters the most.
Admittedly, the Ravens have been the better team throughout the entirety of the season. But playoff football is different, and the Chiefs appear to be peaking at the perfect time. The implementation of weapons throughout the offense makes the Chiefs more dangerous by the week.
Rashee Rice emerged as a reliable playmaker as the regular season waned. Isiah Pacheco is being featured more in the run game, with an average of 17 carries per contest over the Chiefs' last eight games, compared to 13.5 carries in his first eight appearances.
Finally, Kansas City's defense deserves far more attention, as the unit is the league leader by allowing only seven points per game during the second half. When Kansas City's postseason experience and the spread are added to the mix, the Chiefs are an easy choice.
Chiefs 24, Ravens 21
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or call or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).
21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN only. In partnership with Meadows Racetrack & Casino. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
