Bengals vs. Texans: Spread Info, Line and Predictions for 2012 AFC Wild Card

Is there anyone who can seriously say they projected the Cincinnati Bengals to be visiting the Houston Texans in Wild Card Weekend before the season?

Highly unlike, but actually possible.

Is there anyone who can seriously say they projected the Bengals and Texans to be sporting two rookie quarterbacks going into this game?

That is definitely a no.

Alas, that is exactly what we have. The Andy Dalton-led Bengals travel to Houston to take on the T.J. Yates-led (by default) Texans. 

However, both teams sport top seven overall defenses, and that is why they are where they are.

This game will be ugly. This game will be slow. But in the end one of these two quarterbacks will actually be playing in the second round of the playoffs in their rookie season. 

Which one will it be?

Where: Reliant Stadium; Houston, Texas

When: Saturday, Jan. 7, 4:30 p.m. EST

Watch: NBC

Spread: Texans (-3)

Home-field advantage only, the Texans' defense has what it takes to slow down the Bengals' hit-or-miss offense. More often than not that hit belongs to rookie wide receiver A.J. Green, and he has been every bit the No. 4 overall pick he was expected to be.

The Bengals defense gives up only eight more yards per game on the ground compared with the Texans, and they'll need every bit of it against Arian Foster and Ben Tate.

Whereas the Bengals can actually count on Andy Dalton to make throws, the Texans have to rely on their running game and hope that Yates doesn't make a mistake.

In a battle of defensive stalwarts, you have to like the points, and this Bengals team is 5-1 against the spread on the road this season.

Over/Under: 38.5

The Bengals hit the over 11 times so far this season, but the Texans only hit the over five times. Basically, they are mirror opposites. With two rookie quarterbacks making their first ever playoff start and two dominant defenses involved, we have to expect the defenses to take over and/or the quarterbacks to have some jitters.

Going under is the safer play.

Key Injuries (via StatFeed)

Matt Schaub, QB, Texans—Out (IR)

Matt Leinart, QB, Texans—Out (IR)

Mario Williams, DE, Texans—Out (IR)

T.J. Yates, QB, Texans—Probable (Shoulder)

Andre Johnson, WR, Texans—Probable (Hamstring)

Troy Nolan, S, Texans—Questionable (Ankle)

What's At Stake? (a.k.a., What Happens If They Win?)

Should the Texans win they'll be heading directly to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. The AFC North champions are the No. 2 seed and greedily awaiting the opportunity to take on a rookie quarterback.

Should the Bengals win they'll be scheduling a flight to Foxborough. The No. 1-seeded Patriots have not won a postseason game since the 2007 AFC Championship game, and they've actually hosted two playoff games since that time.

Keys to Bengals Win

Cincinnati wins ballgames by not making big mistakes. In fact, they are the only team in the league with a even turnover ratio of zero. The Texans are second in the AFC with a plus seven turnover differential and have thrown only nine interceptions as a team. 

The Bengals simply cannot turn over the football over and expect to win the ball game. They need to strike with the Dalton-Green connection when the opportunity presents itself and they need to have some success running the football.

And, more importantly, they need to shut down Houston's run game. If they can't do that, it will be a long, long day in Houston.

Keys to Texans Win

Houston needs to keep doing exactly what they've been doing: running the football and dominating opposing offenses.

The Texans are tied for fourth in the league in sacks despite playing a majority of the season without their top pass-rusher, and their secondary holds opposing quarterbacks to the second-worst quarterback rating. They'll get after Dalton early in this game but will look to confuse him as well.

In a battle of two rookie quarterbacks, the Texans need to make sure their signal-caller isn't the one who has to win the game—he just needs to not lose it.

Prediction: Bengals 17, Texans 10