Grading Every 2023-24 NBA Team's Rookie Class So Far
Almost a third of the way into the NBA's 2023-24 campaign, it's becoming clear that a rookie class headlined by Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren could be special.
And yes, we're talking rookie classes and not draft classes here. So Holmgren, who missed all of 2022-23 with an injury, counts.
And as a member of the class, Wembanyama has a very real challenger for 2024 Rookie of the Year.
But those two aren't the only first-year stars making some early waves. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has taken over games off the Miami Heat's bench. Cason Wallace is shooting the cover off the ball. Dereck Lively II looks like an ideal rim-runner for Luka Dončić. And Brandin Podziemski has become a staple of the Golden State Warriors' rotation.
All of the above are driving factors for their teams' grades in this exercise, which are more like the ones you got in English class than the ones you got in math.
Numbers are involved here, to be sure, but the rookie learning curve makes them a little less important than they are for veterans (especially advanced numbers). These grades are more subjective, have a lot to do with the eye test and are also influenced by expectations.
For example, while a team like the Cleveland Cavaliers may not have a surefire future star rookie, Craig Porter Jr. completely smashing expectations boosts their grade. On the other hand, a couple teams that drafted near the top of the lottery may already be a little worried about their pick (even if they won't say it).
Just one more note before we dive in. A number of teams have gotten next to nothing from their rookie classes, in most cases because they're contenders or veteran-heavy rosters that can't spare playing time for young, unproven talents. In other words, their rookies literally haven't logged enough minutes to fairly analyze them.
So, instead of just handing out 11 arbitrary Fs for those teams, they were grouped together on the opening slide as "incompletes."
The Incompletes
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Atlanta Hawks
The main attraction here is 20-year-old Kobe Bufkin, the No. 15 pick in 2024 who's played a total of four minutes. If the Hawks continue to flounder, we may see more of him after the trade deadline.
Boston Celtics
The Celtics might be the best team in the NBA, and they haven't had a single minute logged by a rookie this season. Jordan Walsh, who was selected near the top of the second round, has appeared in 14 G League games, but he's yet to debut for the big club.
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets have a pair of first-rounders on the roster, but Noah Clowney and Dariq Whitehead have just one appearance each this season.
Chicago Bulls
Chicago has a rookie picked around the same range as Walsh in Julian Phillips. And though he's made 15 appearances, he's still well under 100 minutes. As is the case with Bufkin, he could be in line for a much bigger role if/when the Bulls accept it's time to rebuild.
Indiana Pacers
Jarace Walker and Ben Sheppard are right on the verge of making the Pacers gradable, but both are still shy of 100 minutes. There's nowhere near enough evidence to guess whether Sheppard's shooting from his last two years in college or Walker's wide-ranging contributions at the University of Houston will translate.
Los Angeles Clippers
Kobe Brown at least deserves a mention for making a few spot appearances on a team as experienced as the Clippers, but logging just under 10 minutes per game for one player still isn't enough for meaningful analysis of an entire rookie class.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers have had five rookies appear in games but have yet to have a single one eclipse 100 minutes. Of course, that should've been expected for a team as veteran-heavy as L.A.
Memphis Grizzlies
Even with their injury- and suspension-plagued season, the Grizzlies have only handed out seven total minutes to rookies, and all of them went to Gregory Jackson II.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Leonard Miller generated some excitement during summer league with his size, athleticism and outside shooting, but the T'Wolves look poised for a deep playoff run, and that's partially why Miller has played fewer than 10 minutes.
New York Knicks
The Knicks traded his brother Obi this summer, but Jacob Toppin is around to preserve or expand on the legacy in New York. It's just been tough to do with his two total minutes so far.
Philadelphia 76ers
The only minutes logged by a rookie for Philadelphia were the three Filip Petrušev got in October, and he's now a Sacramento King.
Charlotte Hornets: B+
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The Charlotte Hornets have gotten a handful of minutes from a handful of other rookies, including Nathan Mensah and Nick Smith Jr., but this grade is almost entirely about Brandon Miller.
As the No. 2 pick in the draft, Miller is certainly supposed to be good. So, he's not necessarily smashing expectations, but being a helpful rotation player this early is at least mildly surprising.
Miller is averaging 14.8 points, 2.3 assists and 2.0 threes while shooting 39.5 percent from deep. And the Hornets' point differential is far better when he's on the floor.
He at least puts in the effort defensively too. And effort with a 6'9" frame can go a long way on that end of the floor.
Doing all this while his lead playmaker has once again missed much of the season with an ankle injury is worth this borderline A.
If Miller shows a little more as a creator and figures out more of the nuances of NBA defense, he may get there yet.
Cleveland Cavaliers: B+
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The Cleveland Cavaliers' headliner for this exercise is Craig Porter Jr., an undrafted guard who's been thrust into a far more significant role than expected, thanks to a number of injuries to the backcourt.
Fifteen games into his career, he's averaging 7.1 points and 2.5 assists in just 14.4 minutes while shooting 54.8 percent on twos and 37.5 percent from deep.
And he's far from overly reliant on the latter type of shot. On the contrary, fewer than 10 percent of his total shots have come from three. His ability to score inside the arc can put pressure on the paint and open up jumpers outside.
At 6'2", defense is likely always going to be a challenge, but he has solid steal and block rates so far. That's evidence he can at least be passable on that end.
Other than Porter, there's Emoni Bates. He had some moments over the summer, but he's well under 100 minutes in the big leagues.
This grade is driven entirely by Porter.
Dallas Mavericks: A
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As mentioned at the outset, Lively's rim-running and ability to finish lobs from Dončić and Kyrie Irving have made him an instant plus for the Dallas Mavericks.
On the season, Dallas is plus-7.5 points per 100 possessions when Luka and Lively are together and minus-5.3 when Luka plays without the rookie.
That's a massive swing, and it's the kind of impact few rookies can make in the NBA.
Knowing your role, magnifying it and not worrying about much else can go a long way, and that's exactly what Lively is doing as a finisher, screen setter and rim protector.
Olivier-Maxence Prosper, meanwhile, has played just over 100 minutes. It's too early to know whether the Mavericks have something in him too, but they still get the A on the back of Lively.
Denver Nuggets: C+
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The Denver Nuggets are taking an interesting path to what they hope will be a dynasty by prioritizing experience in the draft more than most teams.
With the league's new, more restrictive collective bargaining agreement, it's going to be tougher to keep championship-contending rosters together. Having difference-makers on more manageable, rookie-scale contracts could be a huge deal, which is why Denver drafted Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson and Jalen Pickett this past summer.
The latter two have yet to break into the veteran-heavy rotation, but Strawther has appeared in every game since November 17.
His three-point percentage is comfortably below average, and he's not really adding much as a creator, but Strawther clearly has a feel for the game as an off-ball mover, catch-and-shoot threat and opportunistic defender.
As for the other two rookies, Denver is probably too good for Tyson and Pickett to join Strawther in the rotation this season. But that obviously doesn't mean the team-building approach is doomed.
Detroit Pistons: B+
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It has been a brutally bad campaign for the Detroit Pistons, who are approaching the record for the longest losing streak in NBA history.
But there is at least one bright spot, even after a recent rough patch in which his numbers have generally tumbled across the board.
Ausar Thompson's scoring efficiency is well below average, but he's averaging double figures, and he fills the box score in a way very few wings ever have.
There are only 17 players in league history with seasons in which they matched or exceeded all of Thompson's current marks for offensive rebounding percentage, assist percentage, block percentage and steal percentage. The only other non-big on there is Tracy McGrady.
With his activity as a defender and offensive rebounder, Thompson can be a high-impact wing as early as this season. If he ever figures out how to shoot, watch out.
That kind of outlook was more than enough for a passing grade, but Detroit also boasts Marcus Sasser, a 6'2" guard getting up threes at high volume and moving the ball well. In just 16.8 minutes, Sasser is averaging 2.7 assists and 1.2 threes while shooting 41.9 percent from deep.
Golden State Warriors: A
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Brandin Podziemski was picked in the back half of the first round, and he's already supplanted Andrew Wiggins in the Golden State Warriors' starting five.
Of course, that move was largely the result of Wiggins' poor play, but that shouldn't diminish how good Podziemski has been.
For a 20-year-old rookie to join a team with championship aspirations (and a history of not playing rookies much) and be this solid is almost remarkable.
He's certainly not putting up star-like numbers, but no one could've expected that for a team with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. In his role, 8.5 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.7 assists in 21.8 minutes, while shooting 40.4 percent from deep, is plenty.
And while he hasn't had as many opportunities to prove himself as Podziemski, Trayce Jackson-Davis has been solid out of the gate, as well.
At 6'9", he continues the tradition of undersized Warriors centers, but he does play bigger than his height and has a 7'1" wingspan. With Draymond Green suspended indefinitely, he may get a little more run in the short term.
Houston Rockets: C
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The Houston Rockets probably could've joined the list of "Incompletes." With Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore and Jermaine Samuels, they've only gotten 138 total minutes out of rookies this season.
That isn't necessarily their fault, though. Houston dramatically accelerated its rebuild when it hired Ime Udoka to coach and signed veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks in free agency. All three of those moves impacted the short-term prospects of Thompson and Whitmore, who would've had to blow Udoka away to earn rotation spots this early.
Still, in the very limited time those two have had to showcase their abilities in the big leagues, you can see why both were first-round picks. If (or when) they do eventually crack the rotation, the Rockets will boast a solid depth of length and athleticism at the guard and wing spots.
Miami Heat: A
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Like the Warriors, the Miami Heat have a late-first-round pick who is destroying expectations. In fact, Jaime Jaquez Jr. is moving the needle quite a bit more than Podziemski.
If you knock out the first eight games of the season, before he forced his way into a bigger role, Jaquez is averaging 16.2 points, 3.2 assists and 1.4 threes while shooting 44.1 percent from deep.
His feel for the game is undeniable. He already knows how to use change of pace and his 6'6" frame to either fool or bully defenders. He has an array of shots inside the arc, and he's a willing passer when those shots aren't open.
He may be the only Heat rookie to log any time this season, but he's second among all rookies in total minutes and has done more than enough to earn Miami this A by himself.
Milwaukee Bucks: C+
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It feels like this grade could skyrocket over the coming weeks.
Andre Jackson Jr. has barely played over 200 minutes on the season, but about a third of that total has come in the Milwaukee Bucks' last three games.
With Jackson's activity level, athleticism and willingness to move the ball, Adrian Griffin had to get him some minutes. And it wouldn't be at all surprising to see him stick around a while.
Milwaukee's late second-round pick, Chris Livingston, meanwhile, has only logged 21 total minutes. So, this passing grade (which, again, could be heading up soon) is all about Jackson.
New Orleans Pelicans: B
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Multiple veterans getting healthy bumped Jordan Hawkins from the rotation spot he enjoyed for most of the early season, but he still did enough to warrant this B.
Over his first 20 games, Hawkins averaged 13.0 points and 2.7 threes while shooting 37.2 percent from deep and showing classic signs of being a high-level floor-spacer.
His release and mechanics on the jumper are sound and consistent. He's fearless in getting shots up. There's no hesitation when he's open. He moves well off the ball.
The lack of ancillary contributions, like assists and rebounds, are contributing to less-than-stellar advanced numbers, but there's a good foundation in place. And at 21 years old, there's plenty of time for Hawkins to round out his game.
New Orleans' other two rookies who've played this season, E.J. Liddell and Kaiser Gates, have combined for just 16 minutes.
Oklahoma City Thunder: A++
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Chet Holmgren isn't just dominating this rookie class in terms of advanced numbers. He's ahead of much of the NBA.
Thanks in large part to his rim protection and overall defensive presence, Holmgren is currently eighth in the league in estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices).
But the shot-blocking isn't the only reason he's there. Holmgren also handles the ball better than most centers, has solid vision and passing ability and an eerily Kevin Durant-esque fadeaway jumper.
He's not really that kind of wing archetype, but just having a hint of that in a center's game is pretty remarkable and has to have Oklahoma City Thunder fans ecstatic.
He's not the only reason this team gets a couple plus signs, though. Cason Wallace is a fixture in the rotation too. He's averaging 7.2 points and 1.1 threes while shooting 52.0 percent from three.
That last mark probably isn't sustainable, but even if he tails off to around 40 percent by the end of the season, that'd be a heck of a shooting season for a rookie.
A little better play from Vasilije Micić would've been nice, but OKC also hasn't really needed that from the EuroLeague veteran. In fact, getting anything from him to this point might've spoiled the Thunder a little too much.
Orlando Magic: B
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For a team already exceeding expectations and getting tons of wide-ranging contributions from Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs and Goga Bitadze (all of whom are under 25), one more hit in the first round almost doesn't seem fair to the rest of the league.
But that's what Anthony Black has looked like to this point of his rookie campaign.
Relatively low rebounding, assist, steal and block rates are suppressing Black's catch-all numbers, but you can tell he has a solid feel for the game. And even without the counting stats on the defensive end, his length and awareness suggest he could be a weapon there soon (if he isn't already).
It'd be nice if Jett Howard had more than 34 minutes to examine, but like OKC, Orlando is already stacked in terms productive youth. Cracking this rotation won't be easy.
Portland Trail Blazers: D+
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Realistic preseason appraisals of Scoot Henderson's game could've forecast some of his struggles. Shooting was always going to be an issue, and Scoot can't bully NBA defenders with his size and athleticism like he has at other levels.
But even the more pessimistic outlooks on his first season probably couldn't have seen this coming.
Henderson is averaging 11.3 points on 11.5 field-goal attempts, 4.3 assists and 3.1 turnovers while shooting 24.2 percent from deep.
Among the 75 players to attempt at least as many threes in their first 16 games, only Jordan Poole's minus-9.6 box plus/minus through 16 appearances was worse than Scoot's minus-9.0.
On the bright side, the rest of the bottom five of that list includes Darius Garland, Jalen Suggs and Anthony Edwards. Things turned out well for all three of those guards, and things may already be turning around for Henderson too.
In his last four games, Henderson has averaged 17.3 points, 5.0 assists and 1.8 threes while shooting 43.8 percent from three.
The turnovers are still high, and the mechanics on his jumper can be erratic, but good signs are good signs.
That and Duop Reath and Toumani Camara providing a little more than expected keep this class from earning the F through this point.
The former is a 6'11" big taking a whopping 10.0 three-point attempts per 75 possessions. And while the latter is pegged as well-below-replacement level by box plus/minus right now, his 6'8" frame and activity level suggest he might already be a plus on defense.
Sacramento Kings: B
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Like some of the others detailed here, the Sacramento Kings haven't had a ton of minutes available for rookies.
Jalen Slawson, Jordan Ford and Colby Jones have all appeared in games, but they've barely totaled 100 minutes between them.
They still get a comfortably passing grade, though, because of 28-year-old Sasha Vezenkov.
The 2022-23 EuroLeague MVP has a consistent role off the bench, an above-average three-point percentage and a 6'9" frame that can at least take up space on defense.
San Antonio Spurs: A+
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You can nitpick Victor Wembanyama's numbers if you want. A 28.1 three-point percentage on 5.0 attempts per game is bad. He has an upside-down assist-to-turnover ratio. And on occasion (though probably more rarely than expected), he gets knocked off balance by burlier bigs.
But all of that ignores the responsibility he's carrying for a rebuilding team that saddled him with Jeremy Sochan as his point guard for most of the season.
With a little more context, it feels safe to say Wemby is living up to the hype.
He's in the 97th percentile in defensive estimated plus-minus, with eye-popping averages of 8.5 defensive rebounds, 3.0 blocks and 1.3 steals in just 30.5 minutes.
He leads his team in scoring at 19.0 points per game. And even if the turnovers are high right now, 2.7 assists for a rookie center is more than encouraging.
And when you put it all together, you get an unprecedented production profile.
Wembanyama has 455 points, 263 rebounds, 71 blocks, 65 assists and 32 steals. No one in NBA history matched or exceeded all five marks through their first 24 games.
Toronto Raptors: F
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Markquis Nowell and Gradey Dick are the only Toronto Raptors rookies to log any playing time this season.
The former has four total minutes. The latter is the only rookie with 100-plus minutes and a lower box plus/minus than Scoot.
Dick was forecast as a shooter coming out of Kansas. And while it's difficult to find a rhythm in an inconsistent role, 3.7 points on 3.9 field-goal attempts with a 25.0 three-point percentage is tough to explain away.
In his limited minutes, Dick has struggled defensively too.
In short, there's a long way to go. Fortunately, the season is long too. There's plenty of time to turn this around before final grades come out.
Utah Jazz: C+
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The Utah Jazz had three first-round picks in the 2023 draft. Brice Sensabaugh has gotten only two total minutes for the Jazz, and Taylor Hendricks just barely started playing consistently this month.
Keyonte George has been an occasional bright spot, with 16 starts and 5.0 assists per game, but he has a high turnover percentage and way-below-average effective field-goal percentage.
If things keep going the way they have for the team, though (Utah is in the bottom 10 of both offensive and defensive rating), all three should have a chance to improve this grade between now and the end of the season.
Washington Wizards: B+
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The Washington Wizards haven't had many literal or figurative wins this season, but Bilal Coulibaly being ahead of schedule is certainly one.
In part because of a relatively low assist rate and low scoring volume, catch-all metrics like box plus/minus and estimated plus-minus peg him as a below-average player for the season, but you can see the vision when he's on the floor.
With his 7'2" wingspan and fluid athleticism, it's safe to assume he'll be a difference-maker on defense. And having a 42.7 three-point percentage to this point of the season is one of this rookie class' bigger surprises.
As he layers on a little more ball-handling and variety over the coming years, Coulibaly could develop into even more than a three-and-D fixture.
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