The NBA's Best 1-on-1 Players Right Now, According to the Numbers
Which players are the most dangerous one-on-one scorers in the NBA so far this season? I'm so very glad (I'm pretending) that you asked!
Rather than make this a wholly interpretational exercise in which you're subjected to the whims of some rando keyboard-slammer (me), the goal here will be to rank the top isolation bucket-getters in a way that accounts for both volume and efficiency.
We're doing this by the numbers.
Entering games on Dec. 5, the average iso is yielding slightly more than 0.93 points per possession. This number will be subtracted from every player's individual points per possession. And then, in hopes of rewarding higher volume and the role difficulties incumbent of that extra usage, the difference will be multiplied by the total number of isos each name has used.
Example: Stephen Curry is currently averaging 1.17 points per isolation. Subtract the league average (roughly 0.93) from his number, multiply it by the possessions he's finished (36), and he winds up with a total iso value added of 8.48.
Does that crack the top 10? Let's find out.
10. Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat
1 of 10
Total Iso Value Added: 9.20
Well, here's your answer: Stephen Curry's value added in isolation doesn't crack the top 10. But he is 12th. That's pretty good.
Jimmy Butler jump-starts the top 10. That's not particularly surprising. He remains a uniquely disorienting downhill force, the likes of whom can render even the most sophisticated defenses completely rattled and lost and foul-prone.
Speaking of which: While Butler is downing a reasonable number of his looks in isolation (50.0 effective field-goal percentage), he stands out thanks to his trips to the free-throw line.
About 25.5 percent of his iso possessions end with a shooting foul—the seventh-highest mark in the league, as well as the second-largest that will appear on this list.
Next Five: 11. Malcolm Brogdon, Portland Trail Blazers (8.84); 12. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors (8.48); 13. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers (8.44); 14. Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat (8.41); 15. Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers (8.14)
9. Spencer Dinwiddie, Brooklyn Nets
2 of 10
Total Iso Value Added: 9.28
Surprised? You shouldn't be. Around this time last year, Spencer Dinwiddie placed seventh within the same exercise.
His efficiency from the floor is not necessarily through the roof. He's downed 16 of his 37 shot attempts in isolation—solid, if not fine, but definitely not great.
Dinwiddie's willingness to toss up some off-the-dribble threes helps inflate his standing. And more than anything, he's an understated prober who finds ways to draw shooting fouls in micro-doses.
Exactly 22 percent of Dinwiddie's isos are ending in free throws—a top-10 mark. Getting to the charity stripe is always a good way to boost your efficiency. Especially when you're knocking down more than 80 percent of your dead-ball gimmes.
8. James Harden, L.A. Clippers
3 of 10
Total Iso Value Added: 10.28
Death, taxes and...this.
James Harden has turned into a punch line thanks to his playoff track record, annual trade requests and an impressive lack of self-awareness. But he is still good at this whole getting buckets thing.
Much like Jimmy Butler and Spencer Dinwiddie, Harden is a whiz at parlaying one-on-one attacks into free throws. Just over 22 percent of his isos generate trips to the foul line—the ninth-best share in the league, bar none.
More than anyone outside Dallas, Harden also traffics in higher-value looks out of his one-on-ones. He has drained 40.9 percent of his step-back triples so far this season (9-of-22), which is a surefire way to juice the value you're adding in isolation situations.
7. Dejounte Murray, Atlanta Hawks
4 of 10
Total Iso Valued Added: 11.05
Aaaand here's our first surprise of this exercise. (It shocked me, anyway.)
Dejounte Murray is not heralded as a devastating one-on-one scorer. This isn't to say he's a stranger to iso touches. They represent 11.5 percent of his offensive possessions, which is actually down from last year (16.4 percent) but right in line with his final season on the San Antonio Spurs (11.3 percent).
Efficiency in these situations, however, has never been his calling card.
Until this season, Murray topped out at 0.89 points per isolation possession (2021-22 and 2022-23). This year, he's churning out 1.18 points per possession—the second-highest average among 29 players who match or exceed his volume.
Whether his efficiency sustains will be interesting to track. Murray isn't getting to the foul line in droves, and his 13.3 turnover rate falls on the higher end.
Scintillating clips from the perimeter are driving this train. Murray has nailed 20 of his 46 off-the-dribble three-point attempts (42.6 percent) and is drilling over 50 percent of his twos outside 14 feet.
6. De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings
5 of 10
Total Iso Valued Added: 12.25
De'Aaron Fox's appearance at No. 6 raises a tantalizing question: Where would he rank if he didn't miss five games with a sprained right ankle earlier this season?
Increasing sample size can have an adverse impact on efficiency. But Fox isn't some seventh or eighth man crashing this party on the back of unsustainably lethal efficiency across a 15-shot profile.
Just 19 players have finished more than 50 iso possessions this season. Fox is one of them. And he's doing a bit of everything and anything in these situations.
Fox's shooting-foul frequency (21.2 percent) is elite. So is his effective field-goal rate (58.5), which he's buoyed with a ridiculous off-the-bounce clip from downtown. He has so far buried more step-back threes at a 40 percent hit rate (10) than James Harden (nine).
Nobody, meanwhile, is picking up more buckets and fouls on the same play while sniffing Fox's volume. His 11.5 percent and-1 frequency trails only Miles Bridges (12.5 percent) and Jaden "What The Hell Monty Williams?!" Ivey (18.2 percent)—neither of whom has finished even one-third of Fox's iso possessions.
5. Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies
6 of 10
Total Iso Valued Added: 12.70
Excuse me while I go get myself a glass of water, take a huge sip and promptly and aggressively spit out every drop.
Ja Morant's 25-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the league and the Memphis Grizzlies' avalanche of injuries have paved the way for Jaren Jackson Jr. to do more on the offensive end. His usage rate has never been higher, and if his current splits hold, this will be just the second time isolations count for more than 6.4 percent of his possessions. (His rookie campaign is the lone other occasion.)
Almost everything is working for Jackson on these touches. His effective field-goal percentage (57.7) is absurd, and nobody on this list is posting a higher shooting-foul frequency (25.6).
More than 61 percent of Jackson's isolations end with him scoring. Just one other player who has finished more than 20 possessions can say the same: Anthony Davis.
4. Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers
7 of 10
Total Iso Valued Added: 13.48
Eye tests and statistics align with Tyrese Haliburton checking in at No. 4. His 1.28 points per isolation possession are stupid awesome—and the highest of anyone on this list.
Plenty of other players have more volume under their belts. That's part of Haliburton's charm. He plays at so many different cadences, across so many different modes of operation, that he blurs the line between intense and necessary heliocentrism and infinite scalability.
Bonkers efficiency on self-created three-pointers enable Haliburton to bridge the volume gap separating himself and so many others. He is burying an uber-efficient 42.9 percent of his pull-up treys, and according to PBP Stats, Luka Dončić is the only other player who has swished more unassisted triples.
There are many reasons Haliburton has gone from back-end-of-the-ballot All-Star to super-duper-ultra-mega-star. This is one of them.
3. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
8 of 10
Total Iso Valued Added: 21.35
We are officially entering a different tier of one-on-one bucket-getter. It begins, not unpredictably, with some dude on the Boston Celtics.
Jayson Tatum's path to the No. 3 slot isn't particularly complicated. He is far from a free-throw merchant but remains a billboard for tough shot-making.
His efficiency on pull-up treys isn't sexy (29.5 percent), but he fares well inside the arc and has the overall volume to put himself in rarefied air. Luka Dončić is the only other player who has scored as many unassisted twos and unassisted threes, per PBP Stats.
In the aggregate, Tatum is averaging 1.15 points per iso touch—a mind-bending mark when you consider Dončić and Kevin Durant are the lone players who have burned through more of these possessions.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
9 of 10
Total Iso Valued Added: 24.18
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is proof you don't need a radical number of three-point attempts to dominate the one-on-one pecking order. Surgically engineered change-of-cadence probe missions can fuel a best-in-the-league case.
Nobody has dropped in more unassisted two-pointers—and it's not particularly close, according to PBP Stats. Giannis Antetokounmpo occupies second place...and he's a full 20 buckets behind.
Endless downhill assaults aren't always an art form. SGA's are masterpieces. He's shooting 57.1 percent on a league-leading 21.2 drives per game, which is just silly. And his 53.8 percent clip on pull-up twos is equally hilarious when you consider the level of difficulty on so many of them.
Fouling him merely adds to the defensive pain he inflicts. A little over 17.5 percent of SGA's isos end with him at the charity stripe—where he's shooting an Association-best 93.9 percent.
1. Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks
10 of 10
Total Iso Value Added: 27.08
You may have guessed we would wind up here based on how many "The only other players to do Thing X this season" include Luka Dončić. But the dearth of shock does nothing to diminish the awe.
Dončić can do anything in one-on-one situations: beat you on the block, bully his way toward the basket, iso his way into feathery floaters, etc. But his preferred mode of attack is also the most lucrative.
Through 18 appearances, Dončić has fired up 99 step-back threes. And he's made 44 of them—the equivalent of a brain-bendingly, incomprehensibly-yet-somehow-believably high 44.4 percent clip.
That shot is an offensive system unto itself, as unguardable as it is difficult. And Luka has managed to marry it to unparalleled volume and efficiency.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering games on Tuesday, Dec. 5. Salary information via Spotrac.
