B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Conference Championships
It felt like just yesterday our preseason picks were being assembled and the angst before a college football season was taking shape.
In a flash, we've made it to conference championship weekend. The breakneck speed of this glorious season doesn't surprise me anymore, but it doesn't make the transition into the next few weeks any easier.
Before we get to this week's picks, let's make one thing clear. This isn't the end of the college football season or Locks of the Week. We'll be active throughout the bowl season, the College Football Playoff and the national championship.
There is still work to do and work we shall do after a rough Week 13. For the first time since the early going, we fell below .500 with our picks. It is our mission to change that, perhaps as soon as this week.
As we transition into this week's, we must first explore what went right and wrong from the week that was.
The Good: San Jose State (+3) vs. UNLV: The Spartans turned into a profitable team toward the end of the season. A 37-31 win over a solid UNLV team was a spectacular way to keep it going.
The Bad: Arizona State (+10.5) vs. Arizona: Oh, this was bad. In fact, "bad" probably doesn't suffice. Arizona State started out with a touchdown; the Sun Devils then proceeded to lose by many.
With that fully addressed, here are the picks.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
Oregon (-9.5) vs. Washington
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The first game was an absolute delight.
Washington ultimately was victorious, although Oregon missed a potential game-tying field goal as time expired. The Ducks fell behind, rallied, and failed on a three notable fourth-down attempts along the way.
It was everything we look for in a college football game. And it is likely we see a much different result this time around.
The differences are clear. For starters, it will be played in Las Vegas rather than in front of Washington's home crowd. Given how difficult that environment can be to thrive in, this element looms large.
Beyond that, however, the Huskies simply haven't looked the same since this first matchup. Granted, they deserve the utmost credit for finishing the regular season unbeaten. That's an enormous accomplishment in itself. But the close calls have become routine, and neither side of the ball has been nearly as crisp.
Oregon, meanwhile, has been largely exceptional. This point spread speaks to that.
Expect this game to go as the oddsmakers have it outlined.
Louisville (+2.5) vs. Florida State
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The ACC Championship Game is ripe with playoff intrigue. A Louisville win would be good news for teams like Texas hoping for a little extra runway to climb.
Regardless, Florida State is on the playoff doorstep with a backup quarterback, Tate Rodemaker, under center. Rodemaker struggled on the road against Florida last week for much of the night, although he did make a couple key plays in the second half.
The fact that FSU played against a backup QB clouds the picture moving forward, and it feels like this point spread speaks directly to that. Louisville, coming off a loss to Kentucky, will have starting QB Jack Plummer under center.
The Cardinals' stumble last week is certainly noteworthy, although outside of a rivalry the game wasn't exactly beaming with stakes. With Louisville's placement in the title game already locked up, the look-ahead potential was very real.
At that end, the Cardinals inject some chaos into the playoff discussion. Louisville covers and wins outright.
Troy (-6) vs. Appalachian State
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It might not have playoff implications or the same juice as some other games, but the Sun Belt Championship is worth a watch.
Troy's season has been a splendid one, with the two losses coming to Kansas State and James Madison. Outside of that, the Trojans have been perfect thanks in large part to the unbelievable play of running back Kimani Vidal.
Appalachian State will attempt to stop Vidal, although doing so won't be easy. The Mountaineers are ranked No. 102 nationally in rushing defense, allowing 170.3 yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry.
That's a problem, and it will be a problem in this game. App State has played excellent football of late, beating James Madison and winning five straight.
Playing on the road against Troy, however, will test this run. Expect the Trojans to run wild as they win a conference championship and their 11th game of the year.
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Texas vs. Oklahoma State (over 55.5)
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Can Oklahoma State score 17 points?
That's where I landed with the Big 12 Championship Game. That's not meant to be a knock at Oklahoma State, which has proved to be a capable team over this year—albeit one that has played in a handful of wild games.
On the other side, Texas should score at least 40 points. On a neutral field playing against the nation's No. 77 scoring defense sets up an interesting matchup.
Last week, Texas dropped 57 points against Texas Tech. While we don't expect this week's score to be that lopsided, it might feature a similar point total. Oklahoma State has scored 40-plus points in consecutive games, and they should be able to find some scoreboard success.
The biggest factor? Style points matter for Texas in its hunt for the playoff.
Don't expect head coach Steve Sarkisian to slow things down.
SMU (+3.5) at Tulane
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Tulane has won 10 consecutive games; SMU has won eight straight.
Those streaks will collide at Yulman Stadium in Louisiana in one of the most anticipated Group of Five games in recent memory. The stakes are enormous, with the winner likely to secure a spot in a marquee New Year's Six bowl.
And in this spot, we're backing the underdog.
To put in bluntly, we've lost betting against Tulane a handful of times this year. The Green Wave's lone loss came to Ole Miss, and starting quarterback Michael Pratt didn't play in that game. Outside of that and a slew of close calls, this has become one of the more consistent teams in college football.
This bet against Tulane isn't personal. It's a bet in favor of SMU, which has the nation's No. 4 scoring offense. Granted, losing starting QB Preston Stone is a loss. But we're still comfortable rolling with the Mustangs and starter Kevin Jennings.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
