10 MLB Prospects Who Could Be the Centerpiece of Winter Meetings Trades
The 2023 MLB winter meetings begin Sunday, and with stars such as Juan Soto, Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes squarely on the trade block, it could be a busy few days of wheeling and dealing from Nashville, Tennessee.
The MLB talent that changes hands in offseason trades makes the headlines, but it's the prospects who go the other way that ultimately determine if a team wins or loses a trade in the long run.
Ahead, we've taken a look at 10 notable prospects who could find themselves at the center of blockbuster deals during this year's winter meetings because of a blocked path to the majors, some boom-or-bust potential or their proximity to the majors relative to their team's window of contention.
Included is where each player ranked in B/R's final Top 100 prospect list of the year.
IF Edwin Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds
1 of 10B/R Top 100 Rank: Next 50
Stats (A+/AA): 123 G, .252/.324/.433, 52 XBH (13 HR), 60 RBI, 74 R, 29 SB
The Cincinnati Reds acquired Edwin Arroyo, along with Noelvi Marte, Levi Stoudt and Andrew Moore, in the blockbuster deal that sent Luis Castillo to the Seattle Mariners at the 2022 trade deadline.
With Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Jonathan India and Arroyo all vying for playing time at second base, shortstop and third base in an exciting young Cincinnati infield, Arroyo could be viewed as an expendable trade piece as the team looks to complement that rising core with a competitive pitching staff.
The 20-year-old got off to a rocky start in 2023, hitting .197 in 162 plate appearances over the first two months, but he rounded into form as the season progressed and hit .276/.356/.474 with 40 extra-base hits and 24 steals in 88 games from June 1 through the end of the season.
With Gold Glove potential defensively at shortstop, he only needs to be an average offensive player at the next level to be an everyday guy.
2B/3B Michael Busch, Los Angeles Dodgers
2 of 10
B/R Top 100 Rank: No. 66
Stats (AAA): 98 G, .323/.431/.618, 57 XBH (27 HR), 90 RBI, 85 R, 4 SB
Michael Busch has nothing left to prove in the minors after raking against Triple-A pitching last season, but he has yet to stake claim to a role in the big leagues with a Los Angeles Dodgers team vying for title contention.
The 26-year-old hit .167/.247/.292 with 27 strikeouts in 81 plate appearances in his first taste of MLB action last year, including going 3-for-27 with 11 strikeouts in 12 games during his final promotion of the year in late August.
Busch has seen time at first base, second base, third base and left field in pro ball, and that versatility could make him a useful bench piece for the Dodgers, but his MLB readiness will also make him a popular target for other teams in trade talks.
In a market thin on impact bats, he could be an intriguing alternative for teams looking for an offensive boost.
IF Justin Foscue, Texas Rangers
3 of 10
B/R Top 100 Rank: Next 50
Stats (AAA): 122 G, .266/.394/.468, 53 XBH (18 HR), 84 RBI, 94 R, 14 SB
With Marcus Semien and Corey Seager both signed to long-term deals in free agency and Josh Jung controllable through the 2028 season, the Texas Rangers do not have a clear path to playing time for Justin Foscue.
Chosen No. 14 overall in the 2020 draft, the 24-year-old has an .878 OPS in 1,290 plate appearances in the minors, and he has put up strong numbers in full seasons at Double-A and Triple-A the last two years to put him on the doorstep of the big leagues.
With Ezequiel Duran already filling the utility role on the Rangers bench, it's hard to see how Foscue fits into the team's short- or long-term plans, but he also looks ready for an MLB role after posting an .862 OPS with more walks (85) than strikeouts (70) at Triple-A in 2023.
He is the rare prospect trade target who could be plugged immediately into an MLB lineup.
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IF/OF Joey Loperfido, Houston Astros
4 of 10B/R Top 100 Rank: Unranked
Stats (A+/AA/AAA): 124 G, .278/.370/.510, 55 XBH (25 HR), 78 RBI, 79 R, 27 SB
A seventh-round pick out of Duke in the 2021 draft, Joey Loperfido has spent the last two seasons mashing while steadily climbing the minor league ranks in the Houston Astros farm system.
He hit .316/.408/.492 with 25 doubles, 12 home runs and 69 RBI in 108 games between Single-A and High-A in 2022, and he showed even more extra-base pop in the upper levels of the minors this year.
The question is where he fits defensively.
The 24-year-old saw time at first base, second base and all three outfield spots in 2023, but he doesn't have the power profile for first base, the footwork for second base or the athleticism for center field.
Loperfido will go as far as his bat carries him, and in a market thin on quality bats, he could be a sought-after trade chip for an Astros team that has been willing to deal from the farm.
3B Coby Mayo, Baltimore Orioles
5 of 10
B/R Top 100 Rank: No. 36
Stats (AA/AAA): 140 G, .290/.410/.564, 77 XBH (29 HR), 99 RBI, 84 R, 5 SB
With Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg looking like the Baltimore Orioles' future infield, and Joey Ortiz also an option on the dirt, the team could use power-hitting prospect Coby Mayo as a trade chip.
The 21-year-old quickly sent his prospect stock soaring when he hit .319/.426/.555 with 24 extra-base hits in 53 games during an abbreviated pro debut in 2021, and after dealing with some ups and downs during his first year of full-season ball, he took another huge step forward in 2023.
His 45 doubles and 29 home runs are what jump off the page, but the significant spike in his walk rate from 9.1 to 15.1 percent is what helped him emerge as an elite-level prospect.
Young catcher Samuel Basallo is another potential prospect trade chip given the fact that Adley Rutschman will be blocking his path in the big leagues for the foreseeable future, but the 19-year-old's ceiling might be too high to part with at this point in his development.
C Kevin Parada, New York Mets
6 of 10
B/R Top 100 Rank: Next 50
Stats (A/A+/AA): 105 G, .248/.324/.428, 41 XBH (14 HR), 54 RBI, 50 R, 1 SB
Kevin Parada hit .361/.453/.709 with 26 home runs and 88 RBI in 60 games as a draft-eligible sophomore at Georgia Tech in 2022, and the New York Mets made him the first of their two first-round selections when they took him No. 11 overall.
Expected to move quickly through the minors thanks to his polished offensive game, he instead put together a lackluster first full season of pro ball, including a .185/.250/.389 line with 23 strikeouts in 60 plate appearances following a late promotion to Double-A.
The 22-year-old also hit just .186/.240/.371 with 29 strikeouts in 18 games in the Arizona Fall League, but his 50-hit, 60-power offensive profile still gives him more upside than most at the catcher position.
With Francisco Álvarez poised to occupy the catcher position in the majors for the next several years, Parada could be moved this winter as the Mets look to retool a flawed roster.
RHP Marco Raya, Minnesota Twins
7 of 10
B/R Top 100 Rank: Next 50
Stats (A+/AA): 22 GS, 0-4, 4.02 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 22 BB, 65 K, 62.2 IP
The Minnesota Twins have had a tough time developing their top pitching prospects over the years, with guys like Tyler Jay, Stephen Gonsalves, Kohl Stewart, Fernando Romero and Jordan Balazovic failing to live up to expectations.
The only real success story to emerge during that time was José Berríos, while Brusdar Graterol has also turned into a lights-out reliever since he was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
That could convince the front office to listen to offers on the club's current top arm, Marco Raya, especially since he is far from a lock to occupy a spot in the future rotation.
The 21-year-old has an undersized 6'1", 170-pound frame and has yet to pitch more than 65 innings in a season, so there remains significant reliever risk until he proves he can handle a bigger workload. That said, his pure stuff is good enough for him to be the centerpiece of a blockbuster deal.
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves
8 of 10
B/R Top 100 Rank: Next 50
Stats (A/A+): 16 GS, 5-2, 2.49 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 16 BB, 55 K, 65.0 IP
After posting a 2.76 ERA with 79 strikeouts in 62 innings in the minors before making his MLB debut as a 20-year-old, right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver might have enough long-term upside to be deemed untouchable by the Atlanta Braves in trade talks.
The same is likely true of 2023 first-round pick Hurston Waldrep given the immediate success he found in his pro debut.
That leaves young pitchers Spencer Schwellenbach, Owen Murphy and JR Ritchie as the most likely centerpiece of any blockbuster deal the team might pursue this offseason.
Schwellenbach was a two-way standout for the University of Nebraska where he served as the team's starting shortstop and closer. He might have been a first-round pick in the 2021 draft if not for the fact that he needed Tommy John surgery, but the Braves still took him in the second round.
The 23-year-old has now turned his full attention to pitching, and with a quality three-pitch mix, clean mechanics and an athletic 6'1", 200-pound frame, he ticks all the boxes to be a future MLB starter.
IF James Triantos, Chicago Cubs
9 of 10
B/R Top 100 Rank: Unranked
Stats (A+/AA): 83 G, .287/.364/.391, 22 XBH (4 HR), 48 RBI, 45 R, 16 SB
A pop-up prospect out of the Virginia high school ranks leading up to the 2021 draft, James Triantos landed an above-slot $2.1 million bonus as a second-round pick by the Chicago Cubs and then posted a .970 OPS over 109 plate appearances in his pro debut.
The 20-year-old missed the first month of the 2023 season with a torn right meniscus and never really found his power stroke once he returned to action with a .391 slugging percentage and four home runs in 363 plate appearances between High-A and Double-A.
The Cubs sent him to the Arizona Fall League to make up for some of the time he missed, and he ended up taking home Offensive Player of the Year honors by hitting .417/.495/.679 with 11 extra-base hits in 22 games.
Minnesota Twins rookie standout Edouard Julien turned in a similar breakout performance in the 2022 Arizona Fall League and has a similar profile as an offensive-minded player without a clear long-term defensive home.
RHP Will Warren, New York Yankees
10 of 10B/R Top 100 Rank: Unranked
Stats (AA/AAA): 27 G, 25 GS, 10-4, 3.35 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 59 BB, 149 K, 129.0 IP
RIght-handers Chase Hampton (20 GS, 3.63 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 145 K, 106.2 IP) and Drew Thorpe (23 GS, 2.52 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 182 K, 139.1 IP) are the consensus top pitching prospects in the New York Yankees system, and those two might be deemed untouchable this offseason.
Not far behind that tandem is right-hander Will Warren.
The 24-year-old posted a 3.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 125 strikeouts in 129 innings between High-A and Double-A in his pro debut during the 2022 season after going in the eighth round of the 2021 draft.
The 6'2", 175-pound right-hander sits in the mid-90s with his fastball and backs it with three quality offspeed pitches, including a high-spin slider that is his best strikeout pitch.
Warren needs to add some strength and to refine his overall command to reach his upside as a No. 3 starter, but the potential is there for him to be a top-tier pitching prospect.
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