College Football Playoff Projections: Week 13 Rankings and Bowl Forecast
Change is coming. Finality is on its way, too.
Throughout the month, the same five programs have remained atop the 2023 College Football Playoff rankings. Georgia recently jumped Ohio State for No. 1, but UGA, OSU, Michigan, Florida State and Washington have occupied the Top Five every week.
But that won't be the case after Week 13.
Michigan is set to host Ohio State in a showdown of unbeatens to decide which team reaches the Big Ten Championship Game and continues its CFP chase.
Additionally, this is the final chance for 23 five-win teams to secure a sixth win and bowl eligibility. To date, 67 programs—excluding James Madison and Jacksonville State—have qualified for 82 postseason spots. Save for Army and Navy, we'll soon know the exact bowl field.
Updated bowl predictions follow the latest CFP rankings.
Week 13 CFP Rankings
1 of 7
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Washington
5. Florida State
6. Oregon
7. Texas
8. Alabama
9. Missouri
10. Louisville
11. Penn State
12. Ole Miss
13. Oklahoma
14. LSU
15. Arizona
16. Oregon State
17. Iowa
18. Notre Dame
19. Kansas State
20. Oklahoma State
21. Tennessee
22. North Carolina State
23. Tulane
24. Clemson
25. Liberty
Group of 5 Matchups
2 of 7
Myrtle Beach (Dec. 16): Northern Illinois vs. Georgia State
New Orleans (Dec. 16): Liberty vs. James Madison
Cure (Dec. 16): Rice vs. Louisiana
New Mexico (Dec. 16): Bowling Green vs. Air Force
Famous Toastery (Dec. 18): Western Kentucky vs. Eastern Michigan
Frisco (Dec. 19): New Mexico State vs. Texas State
Boca Raton (Dec. 21): San Jose State vs. Appalachian State
Gasparilla (Dec. 22): Coastal Carolina vs. South Florida
Birmingham (Dec. 23): Jacksonville State vs. Georgia Southern
Camellia (Dec. 23): Colorado State vs. South Alabama
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Miami (OH) vs. Utah State
68 Ventures (Dec. 23): Wyoming vs. Arkansas State
Hawai'i (Dec. 23): UTSA vs. Fresno State
Arizona (Dec. 30): Ohio vs. Boise State
Stock Up: Boise State Broncos
What a fascinating situation in Boise. Nine days ago, the school fired Andy Avalos. Now, if the Broncos beat Air Force on Friday, they're probably headed to the Mountain West Championship Game. Truly a bizarre story that may have a positive ending.
Stock Down: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
The good news is Louisiana ends the season with 2-9 Louisiana-Monroe, so the postseason is still likely. But, whew, are the Ragin' Cajuns not leaving room for error. They started 5-3 but have since dropped games to Arkansas State, Southern Miss and Troy.
Group of 5 vs. Power 5
3 of 7
LA (Dec. 16): UNLV vs. UCLA
Independence (Dec. 16): Troy vs. UCF
Armed Forces (Dec. 23): Army vs. Iowa State
Quick Lane (Dec. 26): Toledo vs. Minnesota
Military (Dec. 27): Memphis vs. Virginia Tech
Fenway (Dec. 28): SMU vs. Syracuse
Stock Up: Army Black Knights
Massachusetts sprung an upset in late October and dropped the Black Knights to 2-6. Given that undefeated Air Force was next up, Army looked done. But the Cadets crushed their military brethren and have since edged Holy Cross and Coastal Carolina. Win the Army-Navy Game in a couple weeks, and the Black Knights will be bowl-bound.
Correction: Army and Navy must be bowl-eligible prior to their season-ending game. Army will not play in the postseason. I apologize for the error.
Stock Down (but...): Minnesota Golden Gophers
Holding a 5-3 record with upcoming games against Illinois and Purdue, the Golden Gophers had to feel confident in their postseason chances. Instead, two setbacks plus a loss to Ohio State have Minnesota entering its clash with Wisconsin at 5-6. The good news is Minnesota holds the highest APR of potential five-win teams, so there's a chance the Gophers sneak in despite a four-game slide.
Power 5 Matchups, Part I
4 of 7
Las Vegas (Dec. 23): Maryland vs. Utah
First Responder (Dec. 26): Georgia Tech vs. Texas Tech
Guaranteed Rate (Dec. 26): Illinois vs. West Virginia
Mayo (Dec. 27): Duke vs. Kentucky
Holiday (Dec. 27): North Carolina State vs. Oregon State
Texas (Dec. 27): Kansas State vs. Texas A&M
Pinstripe (Dec. 28): Miami vs. Rutgers
Pop-Tarts (Dec. 28): North Carolina vs. Oklahoma State
Alamo (Dec. 28): Oklahoma vs. Arizona
Stock Up: Arizona Wildcats
I don't mean to be hyperbolic, but Arizona might be the best team in the nation. But seriously, the Wildcats continued their remarkable second-half run with a 42-18 Bear Down beatdown of Utah. Arizona is aiming for a sixth straight win as it travels to Arizona State this weekend.
Stock Down: North Carolina Tar Heels
Following a 6-0 start, UNC's season has taken a turn for the worse. Losses to Georgia Tech and Virginia effectively took the Tar Heels out of ACC contention, and they fell to Clemson last weekend. North Carolina has looked like a clear choice for the Pop-Tarts Bowl, but NC State can probably swipe that invite with a rivalry win on Saturday.
Power 5 Matchups, Part II
5 of 7
Gator (Dec. 29): Clemson vs. Tennessee
Sun (Dec. 29): Boston College vs. USC
Liberty (Dec. 29): Kansas vs. Northwestern
Music City (Dec. 30): Wisconsin vs. Auburn
ReliaQuest (Jan. 1): Notre Dame vs. LSU
Citrus (Jan. 1): Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Stock Up: Wisconsin Badgers
Well, it wasn't pretty. Nebraska jumped out to a 14-0 lead in Madison, conjuring up all sorts of bad feelings for Wisconsin fans. But the Badgers fought back, winning 24-17 in overtime and snagging a sixth win. Wisconsin is headed to a bowl for the 22nd consecutive year.
Stock Down: USC Trojans
The regular season is over for USC, mercifully. UCLA handed the Trojans a third straight loss and fifth in the last six games, presumably ending Caleb Williams' college career on a sour note. USC's brand is strong, but the Trojans are—on the field—the least appealing bowl-eligible Pac-12 team.
Non-CFP New Year's Six Games
6 of 7
Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29): Texas vs. Missouri
Peach Bowl (Dec. 30): Alabama vs. Tulane
Orange Bowl (Dec. 30): Louisville vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1): Penn State vs. Oregon
Stock Up: Louisville Cardinals
The disaster hypothetical is that Florida upsets Florida State, which then defeats Louisville in the ACC Championship Game but misses the College Football Playoff. Short of that sequence, however, it appears the Orange Bowl is the Cardinals' worst-case scenario. They'll either beat FSU for the conference title or slide into the Orange Bowl as the ACC's representative if FSU makes the CFP.
Stock Up: Penn State Nittany Lions
Finish in the Top 11, and you're headed to a New Year's Six bowl. Thanks to Washington's win over Oregon State, the Nittany Lions are officially back at No. 11 in the rankings. Penn State will be rooting hard for Oklahoma to not make (or not win) the Big 12 Championship Game.
College Football Playoff
7 of 7
Rose Bowl (Jan. 1): Michigan (2) vs. Washington (3)
Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1): Georgia (1) vs. Florida State (4)
National Championship (Jan. 8): Georgia vs. Michigan
While the predictions are the same, the outlook is considerably different for one national semifinal. Florida State has lost quarterback Jordan Travis to a season-ending leg injury.
Let's be clear, though: If the Seminoles finish 13-0, they'll be a Top Four team. Perhaps a 12-1 Alabama or Oregon would leap FSU in the final rankings to get to third (leaving FSU at fourth), but the selection committee simply cannot leave an undefeated power-conference program out of the CFP.
Still, yes, FSU fans are officially on Team No Chaos.
They're hoping for Georgia, Washington and the Big Ten champion to also finish undefeated. Texas losing in the Big 12 Championship Game would alleviate some nerves in Tallahassee, too.
But will the rest of college football cooperate?
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