Way-Too-Soon 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Rankings
We're less than a month into the 2023-24 NBA campaign, but we've already seen plenty of upside from a rookie class that features one of the most hyped first-year players in league history.
Victor Wembanyama has already had plenty of viral moments, points, rebounds and blocks, but he's far from a lock to win Rookie of the Year this season.
There's at least one other very real contender for the award, and there's plenty of time for others to join the race.
But if the league were to hand out a Rookie of the First Three Weeks award, this is how the results should look.
5. Dereck Lively II
1 of 5
8.8 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.1 blocks per game. 69.9 true shooting percentage, -1.8 box plus/minus (7th among rookies with 100-plus minutes)
Dereck Lively II's numbers won't leap off the screen like the top two contenders you'll read about later, but he's a starter for a team in the hunt for first place in the West. That alone carries some weight in rookie rankings, but that's not the only reason he's here.
Lively is far from a ceremonial starter. His athleticism and timing as a rim-runner have made him an early favorite target for both Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. He's already had some highlight-worthy defensive plays too.
And his ability to pull defenders into the paint with his cuts and present a little resistance at the rim on the other end is having a real impact. The Dallas Mavericks' point differential is dramatically better when he's on the floor.
Ideally, Lively will add a hint of playmaking to his game. His free-throw shooting and defensive instincts can be honed too. But he's smashing early expectations.
4. Marcus Sasser
2 of 5
10.2 points, 3.1 assists, 1.7 threes per game, 43.2 three-point percentage, 61.4 true shooting percentage, 1.5 box plus/minus (3rd)
Marcus Sasser is 6'2". His lack of size could make his NBA life challenging. In today's league, when just about every team has multiple pick-and-roll playmakers, Sasser could find himself targeted often.
But if he can keep shooting the ball the way he has in this early portion of 2023-24—and his 39.9 three-point percentage over his last two college seasons suggests he can—teams will have a role for him.
With the Detroit Pistons, that role has been a heat-check guy off the bench. He's yet to start a game, but he's averaging double figures in scoring and is second on the team in assist percentage.
3. Ausar Thompson
3 of 5
11.2 points, 10.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.9 blocks, 1.2 steals per game, 46.2 true shooting percentage, -0.8 box plus/minus (5th)
Ausar Thompson's shooting was a concern before he logged a single second in the NBA. His way-below-average scoring efficiency isn't surprising.
But even after accounting for it, Thompson is one of the most exciting rookies in this class, thanks to absurd athleticism, beyond-his-years defensive instincts and an intensity that's helping him average a double-double as a wing.
Beyond the rebounding, Thompson also has 39 assists, 21 blocks and 13 steals through his first 11 games.
And the list of the only players in league history to match or exceed all three of those marks in their first 11 career games is a good representation of how unique Thompson is. There are only three others: Michael Jordan, Mychal Thompson and Bill Walton.
Thompson has already proved capable of defending multiple positions. He can create for others. If the shot ever comes along, he could be an absolute star.
2. Chet Holmgren
4 of 5
16.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 2.3 blocks, 1.8 threes per game, 50.0 three-point percentage, 69.1 true shooting percentage, 4.6 box plus/minus (1st among rookies and 23rd leaguewide)
Based on nothing but numbers, Chet Holmgren is a pretty obvious pick here. He is checking just about every box that the Oklahoma City Thunder couldn't last season.
He's a dynamic, intelligent rim protector. He can handle the ball and shoot. His passing ability could allow him to join a growing group of playmaking 5s who are starting to take over the league.
So, why is he at No. 2 right now?
Chet has the privilege of playing on a playoff-ready roster. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey take a ton of pressure on him. He's had opportunities to show off his versatility, but his role is still pretty well streamlined. This is too reductive, but Holmgren just had to show up and check those boxes. Finish open looks. Deter the players filtered his way. Let the stars shine.
He's filled that role as well as anyone could've expected of a rookie, but the only player left on this list is carrying a heavier burden.
1. Victor Wembanyama
5 of 5
19.7 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.4 blocks, 1.7 threes, 1.1 steals per game, 54.2 true shooting percentage, -2.4 box plus/minus (10th)
Victor Wembanyama leads his team in usage percentage. He's second on the San Antonio Spurs in minutes per game. He's starting alongside experimental point guard Jeremy Sochan, who's more of a small forward, instead of Tre Jones (who makes Wembanyama's life far easier). And he's often chasing opposing 4s around the floor, instead of being able to sit on the back line to clean up defensive mistakes.
The unique role on both ends of the floor demands a ton of the first-year big man, and his impact and efficiency numbers have predictably suffered.
But his raw production is still absurd. The highlights can stack up against those of anyone in the league. The way he changes the geometry of the floor on both ends is unique. There's no real way to contest his shots, and there's seemingly no gap he can't make up defensively.
With the proper context in mind, Wembanyama gets the nod over Chet for now. But this is a very real debate.
