NFL Free Agents Most Likely to Be Overpaid in 2023 Offseason
The current NFL season may be just past the halfway mark, but there are already plenty of downtrodden fanbases looking forward to the upcoming offseason with hopes of contending next year.
A key cog in any improvement process will be free agency, with several potential franchise-altering talents who could help struggling clubs reverse their fortunes in the 2024 class. There are also some tantalizing talents who will get paid like bona fide stars while having red flags that should give their suitors pause.
Every year there seems to be a few players who cash in on blockbuster contracts despite being inconsistent or injury-prone. These free agents occasionally put things together and deliver at a level commensurate with their new salary, but they often fail to live up to expectations and even regress significantly.
While smart front offices will give themselves outs in these risky contracts that allow them to get underwhelming signings off the books quickly, others will get saddled with an albatross of a deal clogging up cap space for several years.
With that in mind, here are some impending free agents who are likely to be overpaid during the 2024 offseason.
Free-agent rankings are courtesy of the latest Bleacher Report big board.
Josh Allen, Edge, Jacksonville Jaguars
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If the NFL had a Most Improved Player award, Josh Allen would likely be one of the front-runners to win it in 2023.
The Jacksonville Jaguars edge-rusher is having a dominant season at the most opportunistic time, as he's finally harnessed his immense physical and athletic talents into consistent on-field production in a contract year.
While the 26-year-old has been a decent defender since he was drafted No. 7 overall in 2019, he lacked the type of week-to-week stability that elite pass-rushers possess.
His upside has always been undeniable, though, and the elite play he flashed led the Jags to pick up his fifth-year option during the 2022 offseason. That proved to be a shrewd maneuver, as Allen has developed into a great all-around contributor who is enjoying his finest NFL campaign yet.
Through eight games, he has notched nine sacks and 16 quarterback hits to go with 28 tackles and a pair of forced fumbles. He's generated 26 pressures, 10 hurries and seven quarterback knockdowns while playing 77 percent of the defensive snaps.
To put these marks in perspective, Allen had a great 2022 campaign in which he was Jacksonville's top defensive player and tallied seven sacks, 22 QB hits, 40 pressures, 15 hurries and 18 knockdowns while playing the exact same percentage of snaps over 17 games. He's an asset on run defense and is a key reason why the Jags give up just 79.3 yards per game on the ground, the third-fewest in the league.
Allen will likely become one of the highest-paid edge-rushers in football when he hits the open market. He's ranked No. 3 on the Bleacher Report free-agent big board and has a valuation of $22 million per season courtesy of Spotrac. That would likely be a lowball offer for Allen's services if he continues playing at his current level, as Montez Sweat just set the table for his fellow edge-rushers by signing a four-year, $98 million extension at the weekend.
While Allen is putting up impressive numbers, signing him to the massive extension he's almost sure to get at this point isn't guaranteed to pay off. He hasn't shown he can play at the top level with any consistency, mustering a middling 17 sacks over the past three seasons combined including just 2.5 during an injury-shortened sophomore season in 2020.
Even his 2023 performance could be a bit fluky. According to ESPN Analytics, he doesn't even rank in the top 20 for pass-rush win rate despite recording the fifth-most sacks in the league. He's not exactly lifting his teammates either, as he's part of a unit that only ranks No. 21 in the league with a 41 percent pass rush win rate, well below the 59 percent rate the league-leading Houston Texans are posting.
It wouldn't be a shock to see Allen come back down to earth during the back half of the campaign. Even if he keeps up his current sack and pressure rates, he will be earning a huge bag of cash for what amounts to one elite season over a half-decade. If he regresses to the mean on that second contract, it will be a regrettable move for the club that ultimately gets his signature.
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
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Saquon Barkley experienced a career revitalization in 2022, managing to stay healthy for the first time in years while shouldering a herculean load for the New York Giants.
Despite the resurgent performance, the G-Men were reticent to dole out a long-term deal to the veteran running back and instead franchise-tagged then signed him to a one-year contract before the 2023 campaign kicked off.
The decision seems to have been the right one, as Barkley has already missed three games with an ankle injury and hasn't been able to lead his squad to the same successes it found last year.
He earned the second Pro Bowl nod of his career—and first since his rookie campaign in 2018—last season by rushing for 1,312 yards and 10 touchdowns on 295 totes. He was used heavily as a receiver too, securing 57 receptions for 338 yards. He participated in 16 games for just the second time as a pro, but that volume could be taking its toll on the 26-year-old.
While Barkley is averaging a tad more rushing yardage per game in 2023 compared to last year, he's only punched in three touchdowns, including just one on the ground. His receiving output is also slightly down, as he's averaging fewer than 20 yards per game through the air for the first time in his career.
Barkley's PFF grade is probably the best indication of where is stands. His sensational rookie debut resulted in an 85.2 grade. He posted a more pedestrian 77.2 last year and is down to a 70.6 in 2023. While the No. 18 free agent on Bleacher Report's board is performing markedly better than the 59.1 he carded during a trying 2021 season, it's not the type of score a team should reward with a pricy long-term deal.
The Giants agreed to pay Barkley just under $10.1 million for the current campaign. Spotrac estimates he's worth slightly more—in the $12 million-per-year range—as he heads into free agency for the first time.
Any team paying that sort of money will be taking a major risk, as Barkley would be getting paid as a top-five back while only producing at that level twice in six seasons. A strong, healthy finish to the year would make a signing at that price tag more palatable, but it's going to tough for Barkley to deliver consistently based on his history of injuries.
Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
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At one time Marquise Brown seemed like he would be the league's next great receiver. He had his first 1,000-yard campaign in the Baltimore Ravens' run-heavy offense in 2021—his third NFL season—and appeared poised to build on that breakout showing upon landing with the Arizona Cardinals via a draft-day during that offseason.
That didn't come to fruition, though, as he regressed in his first campaign in the desert and hasn't returned to form this season.
The 5'9", 180-pounder struggled with injury in 2022, missing five games and finishing the year with just 67 catches for 709 yards and three touchdowns—the latter two marks being his lowest since his rookie year.
While he's on pace to slightly improve his stats this season with 42 catches for 440 yards and four scores over the first nine weeks, those aren't the type of numbers you want to see from a wideout who will likely get paid like a No. 1.
Brown, 26, lacks the size and consistency to carry a passing attack. While he has game-breaking speed and agility, he isn't able to combat physical defensive backs for contested balls and relies heavily on his quickness to get open. He's always a threat to bust a big play, but he's going to have stretches where he isn't doing much outside of being a field-stretching decoy.
While that has value in the NFL, his Spotrac valuation of nearly $19 million per season is a hefty sum for a player who averages 77 receptions, 891 yards and seven touchdowns per season. Those are respectable figures, but not elite ones.
Despite this, Brown—ranked No. 31 on B/R's free-agent big board—will likely command a huge contract from a franchise desperate for receiving help.
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Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings
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Kirk Cousins will be one of the more intriguing free agents to follow when he officially hits the open market this spring.
The Minnesota Vikings quarterback slots in at No. 10 on Bleacher Report's free-agent big board for good reason, as he was performing well while playing out the final year of his contract before his campaign was cut short by a season-ending Achilles tear.
The Week 8 injury—which could sideline him for up to nine months—may give some suitors pause, but with how many organizations are in dire need of a passer, it's almost certain Cousins will cash in with yet another big payday.
Cousins was on pace for a third consecutive Pro Bowl nod before going down. While the Vikings were just 4-4 in his starts, the 35-year-old was completing 69.5 percent of his passes—one of the best marks of his career—and had tallied up 2,331 yards and 18 touchdowns against five interceptions. He was clearly well within his prime and could still have plenty left in the tank if he can make a full recovery.
While the veteran has racked up plenty of individual accolades and impressive stats in recent seasons, playoff success has remained elusive. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2015, he has only reached the playoffs on three occasions. He's won just a single game during those trips and suffered perhaps his worst defeat yet during last year's Wild Card Round.
After going 13-4 during the regular season, Minnesota was eliminated by the New York Giants—which only narrowly slipped into the playoffs—to hand Cousins yet another disheartening early postseason ending.
Cousins, who has piled up a whopping $232 million in career earnings, has a $39.3 million per year Spotrac valuation. His elite play under center during the regular season warrants that type of cash, but it's going to be difficult for a 36-year-old coming off a devastating injury to get back to playing high level football in his 13th NFL season. That alone would be a feat, but it is likely asking too much for that to occur as well as a reversal of his well-documented playoff failures.
With Father Time set to inevitably take its toll at some point soon, any big contract for Cousins could wind up being a disaster.
Gabe Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills
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Gabe Davis is, arguably, the best example of an overhyped free agent who is likely to cash in on a contract far more valuable than his play on the field has deserved.
The 24-year-old is set to hit the open market following four seasons with the Buffalo Bills, a stretch in which he's had some truly special performances interspersed with plenty of disappearing acts.
Davis will sign a second contract after collecting a pedestrian 149 catches for 2,418 yards. What separates him from the merely average receiver pack is his scoring rate, as he has notched 25 touchdowns and counting since entering the league as a fourth-round pick in 2020. He matched his career high with seven scores last season and already has five through the first nine games of 2023.
Any team that signs the UCF product—who is ranked No. 36 on Bleacher Report's big board—to a sizable deal should be wary that much of his production is based on Buffalo's scheme and its star quarterback. The Bills have thrown the ball on a higher percentage of plays than all but seven teams this season, a luxury they can afford thanks to the powerful arm of Josh Allen. Davis is an ideal complement to the signal-caller's cannon, as he possesses fantastic hands and a huge catch radius to help him to reel in contested deep balls.
Inconsistency has long been a problem for Davis. While he's clearly below Stefon Diggs in the pass-catching pecking order, he isn't low enough where he should have six games with three or fewer catches—including three with zero or one receptions—already this season. He's only had four or more grabs in 15 of the 56 games he's suited up for and just four games with six catches or more.
Any team giving out a big money deal to Davis—and he's likely to get one given his $11.2 million per year valuation by Spotrac—should not only be armed with an elite quarterback but also be willing to accept him disappearing for weeks at a time before re-emerging with game-winning performances.
He's a nice asset to have on a contending squad as a third wideout, but putting him on a big contract likely won't provide the returns a struggling squad needs to turn a corner.
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